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France Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 115
Business Monitor International's France Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's telecommunications industry.
The Q112 update to the France Telecommunications Market Report includes data analysis of the four key telecoms markets – mobile, fixed-line, broadband and pay-TV – based on both quarterly data releases from operators and from data released by the country’s regulator, ARCEP. The report also contains analysis of the latest market trends in terms of content and services, as well as an update to regulator measures affecting areas such as MTRs, 4G spectrum and fibre rollout. Finally, the Q112 report contains extended forecasts through to 2016 for the French fixed-line, mobile, ARPU and broadband markets based on historical data and BMI models.
In the mobile market BMI again points to France's mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) as the engine for top-line growth in the mobile arena in Q311 (latest operator results at the time of writing). While the network operators focus on upgrading existing 2G and 3G subscribers to mobile broadband and multiplay converged services packages, the MVNOs continue to enjoy success in addressing niche and low-cost markets increasingly eschewed by the network operators.
The French market is expected to be serving 66.38mn subscribers by the end of 2011, a figure BMI now forecasts to grow to 73.14mn in 2016. BMI's forecast takes into consideration the impact of newcomer Free Mobile's prospects when it launches in 2012 with a converged services offer and a national roaming agreement with Orange. Previously, BMI had been expecting Free to struggle.
The forthcoming auction of 800MHz spectrum, adding to the September auction of 2.6GHz spectrum, is the basis for operators to roll out 4G services using LTE-based networks, which is expected to be a driver of growth for both mobile and broadband services in the latter part of the forecast period. The French broadband market continues to evolve rapidly, with investment in both fixed and mobile technologies. As across much of the rest of Europe, fixed growth is increasingly coming from fibre technologies, both FTTx and hybrid-fibre coaxial cable systems, capable of high-speed connections of up to 100Mbps.
Meanwhile, mobile broadband has grown rapidly, although rates are expected to slow in the absence of the rollout of LTE services capable of offering speeds that rival fixed-line connections, thus opening up the mobile market to more demanding broadband customers who would not currently switch.
Growing usage of broadband voice and cable telephony services has served to slow the rate of decline for voice connections as a whole, but the slump in traditional line usage means that 9M11 figures were lower than BMI had been expecting and its forecasts for the subsequent five-year period have been adjusted downwards to take this into account. BMI now expects that, by 2016, there will be 16.63mn traditional voice lines in service in France, a penetration rate of 25.7%.
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