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Spain Autos Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, December 2011, Pages: 49
Spain Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Spain's automotive industry.
A further deterioration in the medium-term outlook for the Spanish economy in recent months has prompted BMI to downgrade its 2012 vehicle sales forecast to a modest 2.2% y-o-y growth, despite six consecutive years of decline in new vehicle sales.
Indeed, overall spending growth remains negligible as the housing market continues its slump, unemployment shows no signs of coming down and severe fiscal austerity dominates. The new car market has recorded a massive 20% y-o-y contraction to 581,205 units during the first ten months of 2011, while sales in the commercial vehicle segment were down 5.3% y-o-y to 92,900 units during the first three quarters of 2011.
On the other hand, vehicle production during the first three quarters has shown a cautious recovery, growing 1.6% compared with the same period last year. Trends within the segment diverged, as passenger car production contracted 1.8% y-o-y while that for the commercial vehicles grew nearly 15% during the same period. BMI believes the moderate growth in production was mainly led by impressive demand from the export markets, which grew over 6% y-o-y during the nine-month period.
In 2012, BMI expects Spain’s autos production to be dictated by demand conditions in Germany and France. Both markets managed to maintain relatively strong consumer confidence in H111, but there are signs that demand could slow down in H211 and during 2012. As such, BMI expects only a modest 2.2% growth in production during 2012. There could be upside risks to this outlook, particularly if Spain is able to diversify its exports to more resilient markets in North Africa or the Middle East.
Depressed domestic demand and lacklustre production growth have meant that Spain is currently eighth in BMI’s Risk/Reward Ratings, down from sixth at the beginning of 2011. Spain lost some points due to depressed domestic demand for vehicles, while the likes of Poland and Turkey were quick to gain points on the back of new investments and fairly resilient domestic demand.
In the medium to long term, however, there is scope for Spain to reclaim its position. While some help will undoubtedly come from the recovery in domestic vehicle sales, BMI believes that new production commitments from existing carmakers clearly create some room for optimism. As recently as November 2011, Germany's Daimler earmarked investments worth EUR1bn for the company's Vitoria plant in Spain related to the production of a new van. Daimler revealed that it is looking to produce 100,000 units of the codenamed VS20 van at the plant from 2014. The announcement comes in addition to similar projects bagged from Nissan Motors, General Motor Company and Volkswagen.
Spain Autos Industry SWOT
Spain Political SWOT
Spain Economic SWOT
Spain Business Environment SWOT
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How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
- PSA Peugeot Citroën
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