Thailand Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012

Thailand Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's oil and gas industry.

Despite a relatively strong domestic oil and gas position, Thailand is increasingly exposed because of its reliance on imports of crude oil, pipeline gas and now LNG. The country could become a major exporter of refined oil products within the Asian region, but tough decisions must be made with regard to refinery investment if this potential is to be realised.

The main trends and developments BMI highlights in the Thai Oil and Gas sector are:

- State controlled explorer PTTEP's investment in domestic gas production, plus rising volumes supplied by Chevron and the partners in the Thai-Malaysia joint development area, point to stable gas output over the medium term. This is forecast to plateau at around 34.0bn cubic metres (bcm). Most power-generating plants have now switched from oil to gas. State-controlled energy company PTT is also planning to develop a gas distribution network around Bangkok. Consumption looks set to reach 52.6bcm in 2016, implying a need to import 19.6bcm of gas.

- Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports have now started arriving in the country after PTT built a regasification terminal at Map Ta Phut. The facility entered service in June 2011 and can handle 5mn tonnes per annum (tpa), which will rise to 10mn tpa (13.8bcm of gas) at a later date. There are preliminary gas supply agreements in place with Qatar and Iran, although some LNG is likely to be sourced from regional suppliers such as Malaysia or Indonesia. BMI forecasts that LNG imports, which started in 2011, will initially amount to 2bcm, rising to 6bcm in 2013. BMI sees scope for LNG imports to reach 10bcm by 2017.

- Oil consumption rose from 411,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 808,000b/d between 1990 and 1997, before the Asian crisis triggered a collapse and consumption sunk to 701,610b/d in 2001. Demand has been on a generally upward trend since and hit an estimate 977,000b/d in 2011. BMI is assuming 2-3% average annual growth to 2016, which suggests end-period consumption of 1.12mn b/d.

- Oil and liquids production will have been about 337,000b/d in 2011, which is estimated to decline to 256,000b/d by 2016. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) will account for much of the volume. BMI estimates oil import volumes of 640,000b/d in 2011, rising to 859,000b/d by 2016. At time of writing, BMI assumes an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) – falling to US$99.40/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US a worsening of the eurozone debt crisis. For 2012, growth is estimated at 3.6%. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Industry View

SWOT Analysis
Thailand Oil and Gas SWOT

Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 000b/d, 2008-2015
Global Oil Production, 000b/d

Regional Energy Market Outlook
Oil Supply
Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016
Oil Demand
Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016
Oil: Downstream
Table: Refining Capacity, 2009-2016
Gas Supply
Table: Gas Production, 2009-2016
Gas Demand
Table: Gas Consumption, 2009-2016
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016

Thailand Energy Market Overview
Table: Upstream Projects

Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Thailand Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario

Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Thailand
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Gas-Processing Plants

Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Region
Regional Risk/Rewards Ratings
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating
Regional Upstream Risks/Rewards
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
Thailand Upstream Rating – Overview
Thailand Upstream Rating – Rewards
Thailand Upstream Rating – Risks
Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating
Thailand Downstream Rating – Overview

Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Thailand Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players

Company Monitor
PTT
PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP)
Chevron
Esso (Thailand) Plc
Thai Shell Co Ltd
Salamander Energy
IRPC – Summary
Hess – Summary
Star Petroleum – Summary
BG Group – Summary
Pan Orient Energy – Summary
Coastal Energy – Summary
Carnarvon Petroleum – Summary
Others – Summary

Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Oil Production, 000b/d Long-Term forecasts
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term forecasts
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Gas Production Long-Term forecasts

Methodology And Risks To Forecasts

Glossary Of Terms

Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources

- PTT
- PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP)
- Chevron
- Esso (Thailand) Plc
- Thai Shell Co Ltd
- Salamander Energy
- IRPC
- Hess
- Star Petroleum
- BG Group
- Pan Orient Energy
- Coastal Energy
- Carnarvon Petroleum