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Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 93
Business Monitor International's Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Squabbles over ownership of the Karachaganak project have threatened to undermine IOC involvement in Kazakhstan, although the country’s considerable upstream potential makes it a strategic investment area for many key players. Extracting larger volumes of oil and gas is proving to be a frustrating business, but there is no denying the long-term attractions of the country’s mega-projects.
The main trends and developments BMI highlight for Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- BMI anticipate an estimated gas output of 17.8bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011, which will rise to 35.4bcm by the end of 2016. Infrastructure bottlenecks and delays over key decisions regarding associated gas have forced us to moderate their assumptions. However, the country is still set to become a major gas exporter. Their demand forecasts see consumption reaching no more than 13.5bcm in 2016, providing export potential of at least 21.8bcm.
- State oil and gas group KazMunaiGas (KMG) believes that Kashagan field expansion could be completed earlier than envisaged under current plans. CEO Bolat Akchulakov has suggested that Shell and other partners in the Kashagan venture could complete the expansion project as early as 2017. This would be dependent on the partners agreeing a development concept by the beginning of 2012, according to Akchulakov.
- Output at Kashagan, with expansion having been delayed three times already, will reach about 370,000 barrels per day (b/d) during first-phase expansion and rise to a 450,000b/d by 2015 or 2016, Oil and Gas Minister Sauat Mynbayev said on October 4 2011.
- The latest BMI forecasts are based on estimated 2011 liquids output of 1.63mn b/d, rising to 2.28mn b/d by 2016. BMI are forecasting domestic oil demand will reach 323,000b/d by 2016. This implies that oil exports should rise from an estimated 1.37mn b/d in 2011to 1.96mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The government’s export target of 3.00mn b/d currently looks well beyond reach, with BMI expecting no more than 2.0mn b/d to be achieved by 2017, before a plateau is reached.
- Oil export revenues are expected to climb from an estimated US$50.96bn in 2011 to US$66.70bn by 2016. Revenues from gas exports could rise from an estimated US$3.67bn in 2011 to some US$10.12bn by 2016. State income from oil and gas exports could be as much as US$76.81bn by the end of the forecast period.
At time of writing, BMI assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$r barrel (bbl), falling to US$99.40/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis. For 2012, growth is put at 3.6%.
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