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Latvia Shipping Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 134
Business Monitor International's Latvia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Latvia's shipping industry.
The country's largest port at Riga will boast the most impressive tonnage throughput growth figures in 2012. Year-on-year (y-o-y) growth is forecast to stand at 5.73% in 2012, before slowing to an average of 2.41% between 2012 and 2016. The Port of Ventspils' rate of year-on-year (y-o-y) growth will be negligible both in 2012 and over the mid term, with a projected growth figure of just 1.55% in 2012, only just coming ahead of the annual mid-term average of 0.72%.
Good news had been received during Q411, however, in the form of the strong performance recorded by Germany's main port of Hamburg, which defied the country's macroeconomic woes in H111, seeing a considerable box throughput increase, an achievement attributed in no small part to the integral role of increasing demand from Latvia and its Baltic neighbours such as Russia, Lithuania and Estonia.
BMI do not expect September 2011's snap election to alter their shipping forecasts in the mid term, with key issues centring on the ongoing austerity push that is affecting the whole of Europe. BMI therefore expect the incoming coalition government to continue with its fiscally prudent, pro-IMF policy agenda.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Riga tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 5.73%.
- 2012 port of Riga container throughput is forecast to increase 15.39%.
- 2012 Port of Ventspils tonnage throughput is forecast to rise 1.55%
- 2012 Port Of Ventspils container throughput is forecast to increase 1.80%
- 2012 total trade real growth is forecast to rise 10.25%.
Key Industry Trends
Baltic State Ports Back In Fashion As Russia Diversifies Grain-Export Route
The Port of Ventspils will once again play a key role in Russia's grain-export supply chain, following a four-year hiatus. The move is very much a welcome one, as the development of the Russian port of Ust- Luga remains a threat to Baltic state ports.
Ventspils And Riga Both Enjoy Successful Start To 2011
The ports of Ventspils and Riga enjoyed a strong performance in terms of y-o-y tonnage throughput for the first eight and seven months of 2011 respectively (latest available data), with the former posting a 9.2% annual increase and the latter a 16% growth.
Risks To Outlook
The largest risk on the horizon appears to be on the downside, in the form of Russia's new oil terminal at the port of Ust-Luga. Throughput volumes at the Russian port, which was conceived to allow Russia to ship oil and oil products through a domestic facility, continue to increase. This said, however, BMI highlights that although the development of Ust-Luga - as well as Russia's plan to construct its own supply-chain network to decrease its dependence on its neighbour's ports - was coupled with souring political relations, Russian firms and exports will still play a role at Baltic State ports.
This is highlighted by Russia's decision to end a four-year hiatus and once again use the Latvian port of Ventspils in its grain-export supply chain. The move emphasises Russia's willingness to diversify its export routes via neighbouring states, something that had been called into doubt by the development of Ust-Luga.
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