Libya Defence and Security Report Q1 2012

  • ID: 2019981
  • January 2012
  • Region: Libya
  • 83 Pages
  • Business Monitor International
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Business Monitor International's Libya Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Libya's defence and security industry.

With Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Qadhafi now dead, and the rebel Transitional National Council (TNC) now the de facto government, the future of the country remains uncertain following the 2011 civil war. The TNC has tasked itself with commencing the constitutional reconstruction of the country’s political system. Nevertheless, until an elected government takes power, tthere is a very high risk of a security vacuum in the meantime, which could be exploited by rebel splinter groups, surviving Qadhafi loyalists, or Islamist militants.
What is certain is that the war has done very considerable damage to the Libyan economy, including its crucial oil industry. BMI have revised their forecast for real GDP growth in 2011 downwards to minus 23.2%. Until security is restored, it will not be clear just how much economic/infrastructure damage has been done or how long READ MORE >

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Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
Libya Security SWOT
Libya Defence Industry SWOT

Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa

Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Middle East In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Regional Power Dynamics
Nuclear Proliferation
External Powers
Scenarios For The Middle East

What If Assad’s Regime Falls? Scenarios Assessed
Security Risk Analysis
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Libya's Security Risk Rating
Libya’s Political Outlook

Security Overview
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
Table: International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction

Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Latest Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments

Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Libya’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Libya’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)

Defence Expenditure
Table: Libya’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Libya’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade

Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Libya: Key Features Of Different Scenarios
Table: Libya – Potential Forecast Changes Under Different Scenarios
Table: Libya – Macroeconomic Activity, 2008-2015

Country Snapshot: Libya Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry

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