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Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand & Implications for the Global PV Industry
Greentech Media, Inc, January 2012, Pages: 235
The global polysilicon industry will undergo a major shakeout over the next two years, as the feedstock's epic 2011 price declines will continue through 2013. With new entrants bringing capacity online and incumbent suppliers fulfilling expansion plans fomented in the PV demand boom of yesterday, global polysilicon capacity is forecasted to double by 2013 over 2010 levels. In today's market of waning PV demand, this over-supply has already begun to open significant gaps in production scale and therefore cost structure between industry leaders and an increasingly marginalized group of new entrants.
At over 230 pages, GTM Research's report on the global polysilicon market is a comprehensive analysis of the technologies, strategies and economic roadmap for the industry. The report includes production and price/margin forecasts to 2016, along with incisive perspectives on the industry's competitive landscape and survival strategies available to polysilicon producers.
QUESTIONS FOR COMPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING
- Will polysilicon prices stay at these depressed levels or are they headed back up?
- For wafer manufacturers looking to secure their supply of polysilicon, which suppliers can be counted on to weather this storm?
- If polysilicon contract prices are going to move below $35/kg and stay there – what impact will that have on the end price of c-Si modules? Will $0.70 per watt modules become “the new normal”?
- Which polysilicon processing technologies are providing competitive advantages in terms of costs and quality?
- Does vertical integration offer polysilicon and/or wafer manufacturers a strategic advantage in the current market?
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Oversupply Is Here, and Here to Stay
2. POLYSILICON PRODUCTION: FROM SILICA TO MG-SI (98.5% PURITY)
2.1 Solar Grade vs. Electronic Grade
2.2 Polysilicon Production: From Silica to Metallurgical Silicon (98.5% Purity)
3. POLYSILICON PRODUCTION: FROM MG-SI (98.5%) TO HIGH PURITY SI (>99.9999%)
3.1 Siemens Proces
3.1.1 Siemens Using TCS (SiHCl3)
3.1.2 Siemens Using Silane (Silane Siemens)
3.2 Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR)
3.2.1 FBR Using TCS (SiHCl3)
3.2.2 FBR Using Silane (SiH4)
3.3 Upgraded Metallurgical Grade (UMG)
3.4 Other Processes: Vapor Liquid Deposit (VLD)
3.5 Other Processes: Direct Carbothermic Reduction
3.6 Other Processes: Reduction of silicon tetrachloride (SiCl4)
3.7 Other Processes: Reduction of silicon tetrafluoride (SiF4)
4. FEEDSTOCKS FOR POLYSILICON PRODUCTION
4.1 Metallurgical Silicon
5. HISTORICAL POLYSILICON SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND PRICE
5.1 History of Polysilicon Production and Prices
5.2 The Silicon Shortage (2005-2008)
5.3 Polysilicon Production Capacity Today
5.4 Evolution of Contract Terms for the Industry
5.5 Geographic Breakdown of Polysilicon Capacity and Production
6. POLYSILICON PRODUCTION COST
6.1 Cost of New Polysilicon Manufacturing Capacity
6.2 Cost Breakdown for Polysilicon Manufacturing
7. IMPACT OF POLYSILICON PRICE ON PV MODULE ECONOMICS
8. INGOT AND WAFER PROCESSING TECHNOLOGIES
8.1 Pulled Ingots and Monocrystalline Ingots
8.1.1 Czochralski Process
8.1.2 Float Zone Process
8.2 Multicrystalline Ingots
8.2.1 Directional Solidification/Casting
8.3 Ingot-Free Wafering Technologies (Ribbon Growth / Sheet)
8.3.1 String Ribbon
8.3.2 Edge-Defined Film-Fed Growth (EFG)
8.5 Polysilicon Plant Engineering Firms and CVD Reactor Suppliers
8.6 Vertical Integration: Should Polysilicon Manufacturers Make Wafers, Too?
9. POLYSILICON SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST THROUGH 2016
9.1 Polysilicon Capacity Projections to 2016
9.2 Polysilicon Capacity Projections by Technology to 2016
9.3 Polysilicon Capacity Projections by Region to 2016
9.4 Changing Market Dynamics for Polysilicon Producers
9.5 Tier 2 Chinese Polysilicon Plants at Risk
9.6 Polysilicon Supply Stacks to 2013
10. PROJECTED POLYSILICON PRICES AND MARGINS
11. COMPANY PROFILES
6N Silicon Inc.
AE Polysilicon (AE)
ARISE Technologies Corp.
Asia Silicon Co., Ltd.
Becancour Silicon, Inc.
Big Sun Energy
Luoyang Century New Source
CSG Holding Co.
Chongqing Daqo New Energy
Deutsche Solar GmbH
Dow Corning Corp.
DunAn PV Technology
The Silicon Mine
Fengwei Silicon Industry
Fine Silicon Co.
Formosa Chemicals & Fibre
Nanyang Green Silicon
GT Advanced Technologies
Guodian Ningxia Solar Energy
HOKO Scientific, Inc.
Hualu Engineering & Technology
Hubei Jingxing Technology
Jaco SolarSi Ltd.
Japan Solar Silicon
JFE Steel Corporation
Jiangsu Tehua New Material Technology
Jiangxi Jingda Semiconductor Material
Joint Solar Silicon
Korea Advanced Materials (KAM Corp.)
Kunming Yeyan New Materials Co.
LDK Solar Co., Inc.
Leshan Ledian Tianwei Silicon
Linzhou Zhongsheng Semiconductor Silicon Material
MEMC Electronic Materials, Corp.
Mitsubishi Materials Corporation
MSA Apparatus Construction
M. Setek Co., Ltd.
NS Solar Materials Co.
Oriental Chemical Industries (OCI)
Osaka Titanium Technologies
Poly Plant Project
ProPower Renewable Energy
Xinjiang Puxing Chengda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.
PV Crystalox Solar PLC
Quator Solar Technologies
RSI Silicon Products
Scheuten Solarworld Solicium GmbH
Schmid Silicon Technology
JV Between Samsung Fine Chemical and MEMC
Samsung Fine Chemical
Shanghai Lenguang Industrial Co., Ltd.
Baotou Shansheng New Energy Co., Ltd.
Sichuan Hualin Silicon Energy Co., Ltd.
Sichuan Xinguang Silicon Technology
Sichuan Yongxiang Polysilicon
Silicio Energia S.A.
Silico Tek BV
Solar Industry LLC.
Solar Silicon Technology
Sun Materials Technology
Tianwei Sichuan Silicon
Wacker Chemie AG
Wacker Chemie AG
Vrasa Technologies, Inc.
Yaan Yongwang Silicon
Zhejiang Zhongning Silicon Industry Co.
Zhangjiagang Rijing Technology Co.
List Of Figures
Figure 1-1: Silicon PV Value Chain by Segment, Ranked by Largest Manufacturers
Figure 1-2: Polysilicon Spot Pricing, 4Q 2010 to 4Q 2011
Figure 1-3: Polysilicon Contract and Spot Prices, 1998-2016
Figure 1-4: Capacity Utilization for Tier 1 and Tier 2 Polysilicon Manufacturers, 2006-2012
Figure 1-5: Sample Financial Analysis for a Siemens Plant With HC in a Developed Country
Figure 1-6: Measures of Profitability for Polysilicon Manufacturers
Figure 1-7: Breakeven ASP by Type of Profit Margin for a manufacturer with $33/kg Manufacturing Costs
Figure 1-8: Polysilicon Average Selling Price by Manufacturer, 2010-2011
Figure 1-9: Polysilicon Cash Cost, 2009-Present
Figure 1-10: EBITDA Margins by Polysilicon Manufacturer, 2008-2011
Figure 1-11: EBIT Margin by Polysilicon Manufacturer, 2009-2011
Figure 2-1: Silicon Metal (98.5% Purity)
Figure 2-2: Process to Produce Solar Modules from Silica Stone
Figure 2-3: Production of Metallurgical Silicon (MG-Si)
Figure 2-4: Price of Silicon Metal (98.5% Purity)
Figure 3-1: Silicon Value Chain
Figure 3-2: Breakdown of Polysilicon Capacity by Technology, 2008-2016
Figure 3-3: Average Energy Consumption per Kilogram by Technology
Figure 3-4: Average Purity by Technology
Figure 3-5: Chunk and Granular Polysilicon
Figure 3-6: Siemens TCS With Direct Chlorination (DC)
Figure 3-7: Siemens TCS With Hydrochlorination (HC)
Figure 3-8: Siemens Using Silane
Figure 3-9: FBR Using TCS (SiHCl3)
Figure 3-10: FBR Using Silane
Figure 3-11: UMG Process (6N's Method)
Figure 3-12: UMG Process (Elkem's Method)
Figure 3-13: VLD Process
Figure 3-14: Tokuyama VLD Semi-Commercial Plant
Figure 3-15: Direct Carbothermic Reduction in SOLSILC
Figure 5-1: List of the Tier 1 Polysilicon Producers
Figure 5-2: Historical Polysilicon Supply & Demand
Figure 5-3: Historical Polysilicon Spot Price and Contract Price, 1998-2010
Figure 5-4: Chronology of Polysilicon Market Dynamics, 2006-2010
Figure 5-5: Polysilicon Output vs. Demand, 2008-2016
Figure 5-6: Polysilicon production by manufacturer in 2011 (MT)
Figure 5-7: Polysilicon Supply Contracts Announced Since 2008
Figure 5-8: Map of Polysilicon Capacity by Country for 2011
Figure 5-9: Polysilicon Capacity by Region, 2008-2016
Figure 6-1: Average Capex for Greenfield Polysilicon Plant by Technology
Figure 6-2: Average Capex for Plant Expansion by Technology
Figure 6-3: Impact of Scale on Plant Capex per Kilogram of Installed Capacity
Figure 6-4: Total Manufacturing Cost by Technology, 2010 (Best in Class, for a 6,500 MT/YR plant)
Figure 6-5: Manufacturing Cost by Technology for a Polysilicon Plant
Figure 6-6: Polysilicon Cost Breakdown for Siemens TCS Plant Using HC
Figure 6-7: Polysilicon Cost Breakdown Forecast for siemens hc plant
Figure 6-8: Electricity Rates for States With Polysilicon Plants
Figure 7-1: Profit and Cost Breakdown for a Crystalline Silicon Module (With an ASP of $0.93/W)
Figure 7-2: Polysilicon Cost-Per-Watt Calculation
Figure 7-3: Polysilicon Cost-per-Watt Sensitivity to Price and Utilization
Figure 7-4: Silicon Utilization for Selected Chinese Manufacturers
Figure 7-5: Module Cost Breakdown, 2010-2015E
Figure 8-1: Monocrystalline vs. Multicrystalline
Figure 8-2: Cast Ingot
Figure 8-3: Single vs. Multi-Crystalline Silicon
Figure 8-4: Czochralski (CZ) Method Diagram
Figure 8-5: Single Crystalline Silicon Structure
Figure 8-6: CZ Diagram
Figure 8-7: Float Zone Diagram
Figure 8-8: FZ Process
Figure 8-9: FZ Process
Figure 8-10: Multi Crystalline Silicon Structure
Figure 8-11: Crucible Used in Casting Techniques
Figure 8-12: Cast Ingot Being Cut in Smaller Blocks
Figure 8-13: String Ribbon Machines and Diagram
Figure 8-14: EFG Equipment for Ribbon Growth
Figure 8-15: PV Module Efficiency Status and Forecast
Figure 8-16: Silicon Ingots Being Sliced Into Wafers
Figure 8-17: Wire Saws
Figure 8-18: Market Share by Polysilicon Plant Engineering Firm
Figure 8-19: Market Share for Polysilicon CVD Reactor Suppliers
Figure 8-20: Polysilicon Manufacturers That Also Produce Wafers
Figure 9-1: Tier 1 Polysilicon Capacity Forecasts Through 2016
Figure 9-1: Tier 1 Polysilicon Capacity Forecasts Through 2016 (continued)
Figure 9-2: Polysilicon Capacity by Manufacturer in Metric Tons, 2008-2016
Figure 9-3: Polysilicon Capacity by Manufacturer in MW, 2008-2016
Figure 9-4: Polysilicon Production in Metric Tons, 2008-2016
Figure 9-5: Polysilicon Production in MW, 2008-2016
Figure 9-6: Polysilicon Capacity by Technology, 2008-2016
Figure 9-7: Polysilicon Production by Technology, 2008-2016
Figure 9-8: Polysilicon Capacity by Region, 2008-2016
Figure 9-9: Polysilicon Production by Region, 2008-2016
Figure 9-10: Total Polysilicon Demand Estimate, 2007-2016
Figure 9-11: Polysilicon Plants Suspending Production in 2011
Figure 9-12: Polysilicon Supply Stack 2011
Figure 9-13: Polysilicon Supply Stack 2012
Figure 9-14: Polysilicon Supply Stack 2013
Figure 10-1: Silicon PV Value Chain by Segment, Ranked by Largest Manufacturers
Figure 10-2: Polysilicon Spot Pricing, 4Q 2010 to 4Q 2011
Figure 10-3: Polysilicon Contract and Spot Prices, 1998-2016
Figure 10-4: Capacity Utilization for Tier 1 and Tier 2 Polysilicon Manufacturers, 2006-2012
Figure 10-5: Sample Financial Analysis for a Siemens Plant With HC in a Developed Country
Figure 10-6: Measures of Profitability for Polysilicon Manufacturers
Figure 10-7: Breakeven ASP by Type of Profit Margin
Figure 10-8: Polysilicon Average Selling Price by Manufacturer, 2010-2011
Figure 10-9: Polysilicon Cash Cost, 2009-Present
Figure 10-10: EBITDA Margins by Polysilicon Manufacturer, 2008-2011
Figure 10-11: EBIT Margin by Polysilicon Manufacturer, 2009-Present
- 6N Silicon Inc.
- Activ Solar
- AE Polysilicon (AE)
- ARISE Technologies Corp.
- Asia Silicon Co., Ltd.
- Becancour Silicon, Inc.
- Big Sun Energy
- CDI Corporation
- Luoyang Century New Source
- CSG Holding Co.
- Chemical Design
- ChengDa Engineering
- China Enfi
- Chiyoda Corporation
- Chongqing Daqo New Energy
- Deutsche Solar GmbH
- Dow Corning Corp.
- DunAn PV Technology
- Dynamic Engineering
- Emei Semiconductor
- Erdos Group
- The Silicon Mine
- Fengwei Silicon Industry
- Fine Silicon Co.
- Fluor Corporation
- Formosa Chemicals & Fibre
- Nanyang Green Silicon
- GSM Solar
- GT Advanced Technologies
- Guodian Ningxia Solar Energy
- Hankook Silicon
- Hanwha Chemical
- HOKO Scientific, Inc.
- Hualu Engineering & Technology
- Hubei Jingxing Technology
- Jaco SolarSi Ltd.
- Japan Solar Silicon
- JFE Steel Corporation
- Shunda China
- Jiangsu Sunpower
- Jiangsu Tehua New Material Technology
- Jiangxi Jingda Semiconductor Material
- Jiangxi Jingde
- JNC Quartz
- Joint Solar Silicon
- Kailun PV
- Korea Advanced Materials (KAM Corp.)
- KCC Corporation
- Kunming Yeyan New Materials Co.
- Lanco Group
- LDK Solar Co., Inc.
- Leshan Ledian Tianwei Silicon
- Liaoning Shuangyi
- Linzhou Zhongsheng Semiconductor Silicon Material
- LG Chemical
- LXE Solar
- China Silicon
- Mayaterials, Inc.
- MEMC Electronic Materials, Corp.
- Mitsubishi Materials Corporation
- Morimatsu Group
- MSA Apparatus Construction
- M. Setek Co., Ltd.
- Ningxia Sunshine
- Yinxing Energy
- Nitol Solar
- NS Solar Materials Co.
- Oriental Chemical Industries (OCI)
- Osaka Titanium Technologies
- Poly Plant Project
- Powetec Energy
- ProPower Renewable Energy
- Xinjiang Puxing Chengda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.
- PV Crystalox Solar PLC
- Quator Solar Technologies
- REC ASA
- ReneSola Ltd.
- RSI Silicon Products
- Russian Manufacturers
- Samsung Petrochemical
- Scheuten Solarworld Solicium GmbH
- Scheuten Solar
- Schmid Silicon Technology
- JV Between Samsung Fine Chemical and MEMC
- Samsung Fine Chemical
- Youser Group
- Shanghai Lenguang Industrial Co., Ltd.
- Baotou Shansheng New Energy Co., Ltd.
- Shenzhou Silicon
- Sichuan Hualin Silicon Energy Co., Ltd.
- Sichuan Hualin
- Sichuan Xinguang Silicon Technology
- Sichuan Yongxiang Polysilicon
- Silfab SpA
- Silicio Energia S.A.
- Silico Tek BV
- Calensia BV
- Siliken Chemicals
- Solar Industry LLC.
- Industrial Investors
- Solar Silicon Technology
- Solarvalue AG
- Solsil Inc.
- Sun Materials Technology
- Taiwan Polysilicon
- Tianwei Sichuan Silicon
- TGE Inc.
- Tyntek Corportation
- Wacker Chemie AG
- Wacker Chemie AG
- Woongjin Polysilicon
- Wuxi Zhongcai
- Vrasa Technologies, Inc.
- VRV Group
- Yaan Yongwang Silicon
- Zhongwang Tech
- Zhejiang Zhongning Silicon Industry Co.
- Zhejiang Xiecheng
- Zhangjiagang Rijing Technology Co.
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