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Bangladesh Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 90
BMI View: Economic growth will aid the development of Bangladesh's pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors as affordability levels increase and fiscal contributions towards healthcare service provision rise. However, due to Bangladesh's patent-free regime, demand for medicines is artificially inflated and prejudiced against multinational firms. This and the underappreciated political risks are further disincentives to foreign direct investment (FDI).
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: BDT97.45bn (US$1.40bn) in 2010 to BDT116.28bn (US$1.57bn) in 2011; +19.3% in local currency terms and +12.3% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: BDT241.57bn (US$3.47bn) in 2010 to BDT269.48bn (US$3.64bn) in 2011;
+11.6% in local currency terms and +4.9% in US dollar terms.
- Medical devices: BDT11.47bn (US$165mn) in 2010 to US$12.89bn (US$174mn) in 2011;
+12.4% in local currency terms and +5.7% in US dollar terms.
Business Environment Rating: For Q112, Bangladesh is in 15th position of the 18 markets surveyed in the Asia Pacific region. The country is now below Pakistan and above Sri Lanka in BMI's ratings matrix. Bangladesh's pharmaceutical rating is 41.3, which is considerably lower than the average of 53.7 for the region. Despite its current ranking, BMI expects Bangladesh's position to improve over the medium term as a result of a growing population, economic improvement and the efforts by domestic firms to expand their products portfolios and overseas markets.
Key Trends And Developments
In November 2011, the Badas-Sir Ganga Ram SAARC Diabetes Conference was held in Bangladesh and was attended by over 500 doctors from across the country and 30 diabetes specialists from around the world. The Diabetic Association of Bangladesh (DAB) and the Sir Ganga Ram Hospital of Delhi, India, with support from Novo Nordisk, jointly organised the conference.
BMI Economic View: After recording one of its highest real GDP growth rates in recent history of 6.7% in FY2010/11 (July-June), BMI believes the Bangladeshi economy will face a cyclical slowdown in the current fiscal year as significantly tighter credit conditions should keep a lid on investment and consumption activity. We expect a slowdown to 6.3% for FY2011/12.
BMI Political View: The Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) passed the 15th amendment of the constitution on July 7 2011, following nearly a year of deliberation. The manner in which the ruling Awami League resoundingly passed the amendment suggests to us that its policymaking process is not as weak as initially thought. While BMI believes scrapping the caretaker government system could be harmful in terms of political uncertainty, we applaud the government's policy to ensure greater protection from extraconstitutional takeovers and liberalising the use of religion-based politics.
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