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Indonesia Power Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 58
Indonesia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's power industry.
Nuclear power generation is not yet in Indonesia's immediate plans but remains a credible long-term option. In the meantime, coal-fired generation and the use of renewables are expected to be the key growth areas, although the country continues to develop gas-fired plants that undermine its gas export capability. There is huge hydro potential but only a limited development programme. Investment needs to at least meet the government's targets to avoid a steady increase in power import dependency.
Indonesia is moving ahead only slowly with controversial plans to build its first nuclear power plant.
Several schemes exist at the preliminary planning stage, but there is little evidence to suggest plant startup during the current decade. The government says it has a total of US$8bn earmarked for four nuclear plants, which are intended to generate 6GW of power by 2025.
Key trends and recent developments in the Indonesian electricity market include:
- Industry reports suggest that Indonesia holds up to 76GW of hydropower potential, but the country has yet to embark on the large hydro-electric programmes seen elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region. The capital cost involved has most likely deterred investors, who prefer to stick with conventional thermal schemes or embrace the concept of geothermal supply, with Indonesia claiming up to 27GW of additional generating capacity.
- During the period 2011-2016, Indonesia's overall power generation is expected to increase by an average of 7.47% year-on-year (y-o-y), reaching 234TWh. Driving this growth are average annual gains of about 7.64% in coal-fired and 123.06% in renewables generation, augmenting average forecast increases of about 6.55% and 7.61% in the use of oil- and gas-fired electricity supply respectively.
- With 2011 real GDP growth expected to have been 6.3%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 6.6% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to increase from 242.3mn to 254.1mn during the period 2011-2016, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 150.7TWh in 2011 to 219.1TWh in 2016. The average annual growth rate for electricity demand over BMI's forecast period is expected to come in at 7.78%, but BMI believes it will accelerate somewhat later in the decade to an average 8.19% during 2016-2021.
- BMI forecasts a significant rise in net generation; however, growth could lag slightly the underlying demand trend. BMI therefore expects Indonesia's power supply shortfall, which is assumed at 5.8TWh in 2011, to rise steadily. A broadly unchanged percentage of transmission and distribution losses at just under 11.0% will not help balance the market. The theoretical net import requirement by 2016 is put at 9.9TWh, which could soar 50% by 2021 unless supply growth exceeds BMI's expectations.
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