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UK Construction Market Forecast 2011-2015 - 2nd Edition
Leading Edge Management Consultancy, Jan 2012, Pages: 60
Forecast of the UK construction market by key sector
Total GB construction output volume in 2012 is forecast to decline by 3.6% compared to 2011, according to the construction research specialists Leading Edge. This follows what is likely to be a higher than expected 2011 figure, with growth of 1.6% compared to 2010. This strong figure was mainly due to public sector output holding up in Q3 2011.
Leading Edge forecasts that the only areas to show growth in 2012 will be new private housing and the private repair and maintenance sectors. After recovering in 2010, Leading Edge also forecast that the industrial sector will shrink again in 2011/12 due to the worsening economic conditions. The commercial sector will only see a small increase in output in 2011, before falling back again in 2012.
Many in the industry had believed that the private commercial sector would help lead the industry out of the downturn but this has not materialised. However activity continues to be constrained by a lack of access to finance, the ongoing economic fragility and depressed consumer spending.
Leading Edge forecasts that total construction output will not grow again until 2014 with total output in 2015 reaching £108,200m, still 5.7% less than the peak of 2007.
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