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Greece Shipping Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 146
Greece Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Greece's shipping industry.
The Port of Thessaloniki is set to hold the top position in Greece's maritime sector in terms of total tonnage throughput for the fifth consecutive year in 2012, after overtaking the Port of Piraeus in 2008. Meanwhile, Piraeus will retain its position as the country's busiest container facility.
Over the mid term we project moderate growth in tonnage at the Port of Thessaloniki. Piraeus is
estimated to have continued to recover its box volumes, as it maintained positive growth in 2011. For 2012, however, we predict declines at both of the country's main ports due to Greece's poor economic outlook.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Thessaloniki tonnage throughput forecast to decrease 1%, over the mid-term we project a 7% increase.
- 2012 Port of Piraeus container throughput forecast to decrease 2%, over the mid-term we project a 12% increase.
- 2012 total trade growth forecast at -2.14%.
Key Industry Trends
Greece Won't Tax Shipowners Further; Port Privatisation Still Sailing Ahead
Good news for Greek shipowners, with confirmation from the Greek government that they will not face new taxes. BMI expects this to have been a tough decision for the new administration of Lucas Papademos, as the country continues to battle its economic crisis. We assert that the decision was a wise one and will likely lead to an increase in revenue from the country's shipping sector. We highlight that Greece's maritime sector is not completely immune from the government's drive to fill its coffers, with the state planning to privatise the nation's ports.
Armed Guards In Dangerous Waters Becoming Industry Norm
BMI believes that having armed guards on board vessels traversing dangerous waters - at least those in which the Somali pirates are known to be active - will become an industry norm in the coming years. More countries are drawing up legislation enabling the use of armed protection on vessels carrying their flag, providing considerable opportunities for private security firms.
Diana Shipping Keeps Head Above Water Despite Sinking Dry Bulk Rates
With rates still in the doldrums, BMI believes the possibility of more dry bulk shipping companies going bankrupt cannot be ruled out. In early 2011 we saw Korea Lines go under due to the rates depression and other companies were affected as the contagion spread. Disappointing H111 results from many lines indicate a repeat of this scenario remains a possibility. However, despite the difficulties faced by most companies in the sector, Greek line Diana Shipping is weathering the storm well.
ICTSI Seeks Greek Exposur
Philippines-based global terminal operator International Container Terminal Services (ICTSI) has emerged as a potential bidder for the Greek ports of Piraeus and Thessaloniki, which are due to be privatised. BMI notes that ICTSI's plan to buy stakes in Greek ports chimes with the company's Europefocused expansion strategy, which saw the company expand into Croatia earlier in 2011. BMI highlights that although Greece's domestic outlook for port throughput is weak, the country's ports could be developed to play a more international maritime role as a gateway or a hub.
Risks To Outlook
BMI predicts that Greece's poor economic outlook will have a negative effect on throughput at the country's ports. The Greek economy will remain mired in depression through 2012 as deep fiscal retrenchment and internal devaluation take a damaging toll. The country's real GDP is estimated to drop by 4.5% in 2012 on top of a projected contraction of 7.1% in 2011.
A downside risk to our port throughput forecasts would be presented should the eurozone recovery begin to falter and demand for Greek exports weaken, creating a risk that the economy could contract more than our 2011 economic growth forecast.
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