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Indonesia Tourism Report Q1 2012 - Product Image

Indonesia Tourism Report Q1 2012

  • ID: 2021517
  • January 2012
  • Region: Indonesia
  • 67 Pages
  • Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International's Indonesia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's tourism industry.

CORE FORECASTS

Tourist arrivals into Indonesia for the first 10 months of 2011 continued to show strong growth, in line with BMI’s forecasts. Total arrivals for January-October came to 6,270,244, up by 8.47% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to figures from the central statistics agency, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). On current trends, this would indicate full-year arrivals of around 7.52mn, slightly below BMI’s estimate of 7.63mn. However, BMI chooses to maintain its estimate, especially as the final two months of the year have historically been strong ones for Indonesian tourism arrivals. For 2011, BMI therefore maintains its target of nearly 9% growth in tourist arrivals.

Looking at the most recent available monthly arrivals data, Singapore remained the main source market for tourists in October 2011, providing 95,787 arrivals over the month, an increase of 10% y-o-y. Other READ MORE >

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Tourism SWOT
Indonesia Political SWOT
Indonesia Economic SWOT
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT

Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2008-2015
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2008-2015
Expenditure
Table: Expenditure Data,2008-2015
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015
Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation
H5N1 Virus Update

Business Environment Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Indonesia’s Security Risks
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: BMI Asia Pacific City Terrorism Index
South Asia Security Overview
South Asia In A Global Context
External Power Dynamics
The Outlook For South Asia

Global Assumptions
Europe On The Edge
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (%chg y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2011-2012 (%chg y-o-y)

Company Profiles
Accor Asia Pacific
Garuda Indonesia
Lion Air

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology
Sources

Core Forecasts

Tourist arrivals into Indonesia for the first 10 months of 2011 continued to show strong growth, in line with BMI’s forecasts. Total arrivals for January-October came to 6,270,244, up by 8.47% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to figures from the central statistics agency, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). On current trends, this would indicate full-year arrivals of around 7.52mn, slightly below BMI’s estimate of 7.63mn. However, BMI chooses to maintain its estimate, especially as the final two months of the year have historically been strong ones for Indonesian tourism arrivals. For 2011, BMI therefore maintains its target of nearly 9% growth in tourist arrivals.

Looking at the most recent available monthly arrivals data, Singapore remained the main source market for tourists in October 2011, providing 95,787 arrivals over the month, an increase of 10% y-o-y. Other key markets were Australia (84,449 tourists; up by 18.4% y-o-y), Malaysia (83,401; up 13.2%), China (43,305; up 11.2%), Japan (35,007; up 6.6%) and South Korea (25,507; up 1.95%).

The government remains committed to supporting the tourism industry, with Minister of Tourism Mari Elka Pangestu, appointed in October 2011, reaffirming the target of 8mn international tourist arrivals for 2012 at a tourism conference in Jakarta. BMI shares the government’s optimism, though, after two very strong years of growth in 2010 and 2011, our core forecast is for Indonesia to consolidate recent gains with a slightly more measured rate of tourist arrival growth, to reach just under 7.9mn tourists by the end of 2012 and a total of 8.72mn tourists by the end of 2015.

Encouragingly for the sector, the government is taking steps to diversify away from traditional source markets in Europe, which are suffering economic difficulties. The Ministry of Tourism is reportedly looking to refocus its marketing efforts to Australia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, China, India, Russia and the Middle East.

BMI remains optimistic about the outlook for Indonesia’s tourism industry, which has weathered the recent years of global economic slowdown and the concomitant drop in tourism demand much better than some of its global peers.

Lombok Airport Opens:

On October 1 2011, the new international airport at Lombok opened, replacing the old Selaparang Airport. The new airport, which reportedly cost US$108mn to build and was subject to many delays during construction, will be able to handle wide-bodied aircraft such as the Boeing 767 and Airbus A330, so it is expected to boost tourism flows to Lombok, which the Indonesian authorities are trying to develop as an alternative destination to neighbouring Bali.

Speaking at the opening of the airport, West Nusa Tenggara governor Zainul Majdi said he hopes Malaysian low-cost carrier AirAsia will soon offer flights to Lombok, with the airline reportedly looking to start services to Lombok in 2012. The only foreign airline flying to Lombok is Singapore’s Silk Air.

Bird flu Still A Threat:

Although BMI is still upbeat about the outlook for Indonesian tourism over the forecast period to 2015, one threat to its forecasts remains any recurrence of a bird flu epidemic across the archipelago. In October 2011 there were three deaths, with a mother and her two children dying as a result of contracting the H5N1 virus in Bangli, Bali province. To help the country deal with the disease, the World Health Organization (WHO) set up two isolation rooms, one in Tangerang and another in Jakarta, to help treat patients. Eight more facilities are due to be set up across Indonesia funded by the EU.

The danger posed by epidemics such as a recurrence of bird flu remains an intangible factor when generating its core forecast scenario for Indonesian tourism. Although it is to be hoped that the most recent outbreak has been contained, it does show that the risks from bird flu remain real and that tourists need to take sensible precautions when travelling in infected areas.

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