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Japan Defence and Security Report Q1 2012 - Product Image

Japan Defence and Security Report Q1 2012

  • ID: 2021519
  • January 2012
  • Region: Japan
  • 114 Pages
  • Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International's Poland Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's defence and security industry.

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Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Japan Security SWOT
Japan Defence Industry SWOT
Japan Political SWOT
Japan Economic SWOT
Japan Business Environment SWOT

Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
Wild Cards To Watch
North East Asia Security Overview
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia
The Evolution Of North East Asia
Sino-US Power Struggle
Chinese Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis
US Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis
Table: Asian States And Their Relationships With China
Emerging Geopolitical Patterns

Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Japan’s Security Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index

Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook

Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Table: Japan – Non-State Armed Groups
External Security Situation
Territorial Disputes
US-Japan Relations
Relations With North Korea And China
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Normalisation Of Japan’s Defence Forces
Defence Budget
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction

Market Overview
Table: Defence Research And Development (R&D) As % Of Government R&D Budget, Selected Developed States
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments

Competitive Landscape

Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Japan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Japan’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2016 (aged 16-49)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Japan’s Defence Expenditure, 2010-2016
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Japan’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Japan’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Japan’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Japan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016

Company Profiles
Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI)
Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI)
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI)
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI)

Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources

The second half of 2011 proved to be a transitional period in Japanese politics and also in defence, with new Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda appointing Yasuo Ichikawa as Japan’s defence minister in early September 2011. A known proponent of easing the country’s tight restrictions on military operations and also defence exports, Ichikawa said upon taking office that he felt there was room to reconsider the military export ban’s effectiveness. However, successive governments have shied away from reform in this area, and Ichikawa will need time to effect change in Japan’s highly conservative system.
With China’s attention fixed firmly on its disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea, tensions between Beijing and Tokyo eased towards the end of 2011, with no repeat of earlier confrontations over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. In October, the two countries resumed military exchanges after a year’s suspension, with a Chinese People’s Liberation Army delegation visiting Tokyo.

However, some points of tension remained. In October, the Japan Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF) revealed that the number of incursions by Chinese aircraft into Japanese airspace had tripled to 83 between April and September 2011. Japan’s decision to back the Philippines in its dispute with China, and to elevate its relationship with Manila to the level of strategic partnership in September, irritated Beijing, as did Japan’s backing for the United States’ stance, which some interpreted as anti-Chinese, at November’s East Asia Summit. Prime Minister Noda is due to visit China in December, and he plans to ask Beijing for assistance in tracking the source of a cyber attack launched against Japan’s biggest defence firm, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), earlier in the year.

The attack successfully extracted sensitive military data from MHI, and it has been widely speculated that the operation had Beijing’s official sanction. Japan’s warm ties with India continued to strengthen, against the backdrop of both countries’ tense relations with China. Tokyo and Delhi announced in November that they would conduct their first joint naval exercise in 2012. Following November talks between Ichikawa and his Indian counterpart, A.K. Antony, the Japanese government said it was minded to permit the export to India of US-2 search-andrescue seaplane, manufactured by ShinMaywa Industries. Though the US-2 has no offensive capabilities, the move hinted at Tokyo’s growing willingness to push the envelope of its military export ban.

Relations with the US remained steady in the latter part of 2011. Visiting Tokyo in October, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta urged the Japanese government to move forward with a controversial plan, agreed in 2006, to build a new base in Okinawa that would allow US forces stationed on the island to relocate.

The US and Japan also agreed in November to update their status of forces agreement to allow US civilian personnel based in the country to be prosecuted by local law enforcement agencies, amid the enduring unpopularity of US forces in Okinawa especially. In October, Japan also agreed to start using its air-to-air refuelling aircraft to refuel US military aircraft.

In September 2011, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) requested a 2012 budget of JPY4.69trn (US$60.2bn), including around US$700mn for the acquisition of four new fighter aircraft – the clearest indication yet that the selection of Japan’s F-X next-generation fighter aircraft is nearing. The three contenders – the Eurofighter Typhoon, Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Block II and Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter – formally submitted their proposals in September 2011, although within weeks the Japanese press was already speculating that the Typhoon had been eliminated. Ichikawa has said he expects a selection for the 40-60 aircraft requirement to be made by the end of 2011.

In November, the MoD also signalled its intention to push ahead with its own next-generation fighter development programme, known as the Shinshin ATD-X, despite the technical and financial hurdles.

The 2012 budget request also included JPY119bn in funds for a third helicopter carrier – the clearest signal yet that Japan is determined to expand its helicopter carrier fleet beyond the two ships currently in service.

The urgency with which Japan’s declining defence industry needs the F-X and ATD-X programmes to move forward were highlighted by the sobering news that 55 years of uninterrupted domestic fighter aircraft production came to an end in September 2011, when the JASDF’s final F-2 fighter rolled off the production line at MHI. But with the 2011 defence budget falling for the ninth consecutive year to an 18- year low of JPY4.66trn (US$59.8bn), it was hard to see a turnaround in industry fortunes occurring any time soon.

- Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI)
- Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI)
- Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI)
- Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI)

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