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Mobile Broadband Global Forecast & Analysis 2010-20
Machina Research, Sep 2011, Pages: 45
“The growth in mobile broadband data traffic has been heralded for the last few years. It's not, for the most part, the horror story that some commentators would have you believe. Tales of hundred-fold increases in traffic, while possibly true, are skewed by the complete immaturity of mobile data services in some countries today. In the relatively mature mobile broadband markets of Europe and some parts of Asia, growth will be substantial but manageable as long as MNOs implement some sensible strategies. For instance they need to keep their costs down through network sharing, having an active offloading strategy, and focusing their RAN investment where it's really needed. They also need to ensure that those 5%-10% of subscribers who generate most of their traffic are actually paying, which means more price tiers and fair usage policies. Finally they need to look at ways to extract more money from their existing subscribers, in particular finding features in PC/laptop services that will be appealing to business (particularly SME) customers such as faster download speeds, traffic prioritisation and bundled software.”.
Matt Hatton, Director
Machina Research's Mobile Broadband Global Forecast & Analysis 2010-20 report provides a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the global opportunity for mobile broadband services . The key findings are:
- PC/laptop mobile broadband connections (through USB modems, embedded modules and similar) will grow from 140 million at the end of 2010 to 1.5 billion in 2020, driven by falling prices, increasing coverage and capacity and lack of fixed alternatives for broadband provision in many emerging markets.
- The number of mobile handsets will grow more slowly due to relatively high existing penetration, from 5.5 billion in 2010 to 7.8 billion in 2020. But they will be increasingly data-capable. 3G+ connections will grow from 1.5 billion to 7.3 billion.
- Wireless wide area network tablets and eReaders will be an increasingly common feature of the mobile broadband landscape, growing for almost 20 million in 2010 to 230 million in 2020. By the later years the vast majority of these will be 3G+.
- Overall mobile data traffic will grow from 2.3 exabytes in 2010 to 41 exabytes in 2020. Of this, most is PC/laptop data (increasing from 52% in 2010 to 62% in 2020). Overall traffic will increase seventeen-fold. However, there will be a lot of geographical variation. More mature mobile data markets will see slower growth. Austria and Finland for instance, which have the highest PC/laptop mobile broadband penetration in the world, will see only four- to five-fold growth in mobile data traffic.
- The total revenue generated by handset, PC/laptop and tablet WWAN data services is set to reach almost EUR300 billion in 2020, compared to a little over EUR70 billion in 2010. Unlike traffic, and due to typically higher per-MB pricing, revenue will be largely dominated by handset services. These will generate EUR176 billion compared to PC/laptops with EUR118 billion and tablets' EUR2 billion. For mobile network operators (MNOs) the message is clear: there is a substantial growth in mobile data traffic on the way and revenue growth will not match it. Therefore MNOs must focus on three areas: reducing the cost of delivering traffic, improving subscriber management and propping up ARPU through whatever means they can find.
About the report
Mobile Broadband Global Forecast & Analysis 2010-20 provides invaluable qualitative and quantitative analysis of the evolving opportunity for mobile broadband. The report reviews the major drivers and barriers for growth of MBB and analyses the key market dynamics, including how MNOs should approach customer acquisition, retention and management. It also examines the implications of the growth in mobile data traffic and the strategies that MNOs should pursue to cope with that growth including pricing and bundling. The three major device types (smartphones, datacards/USB sticks and tablets) are examined individually with case studies and forecast analysis.
The forecast excel data sheet includes very granular 10 year market forecasts for 54 countries and 6 regions. The forecast covers numbers of connections, traffic and revenue for each of the device types with splits by technology (2G, 3G and 4G).
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