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Thin Film 2012–2016: Technologies, Markets and Strategies for Survival

Greentech Media, Inc, March 2012


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The demand drought in European feed-in tariff markets and build-up of PV component inventories to record levels has introduced an oversupply of colossal proportions. Aided by the destruction of gross margins and a crash in polysilicon prices, there will be over 30 gigawatts of crystalline silicon capacity in China able to produce modules for less than $1 per watt. This has placed most thin film firms at the precipice of extinction. Once the upstart darlings of the PV industry, they are today at the crossroads of the solar supply market, and even First Solar does not appear to be safe.

What does the future hold for thin film PV technologies? Will it be relegated to a bit-player role in the inevitable growth of the global PV market? Or are there still thin film companies, technologies, and business models that will make meaningful inroads into the solar energy landscape, creating new markets in the process?

Thin Film 2012–2016: Technologies, Markets and Strategies for Survival is the fourth edition of GTM Research's annual update on the thin film PV space. With detailed, accurate historical data, a granular examination of manufacturing costs, technology analysis, recommendations for supplier strategies, and competitive intelligence on the top 80 firms in the space, it is the most comprehensive, data-driven, and objective assessment of the space available to date.

QUESTIONS FOR COMPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING

- For firms looking to invest in thin film, what technologies, firms, and business models are positioned for success in the near and long-term?

- How is consolidation in the thin film space likely to proceed in terms of possible investments, insolvencies, mergers, and acquisitions?

- How accurate are current thin film cost and technology roadmaps? What will future manufacturing costs for key thin film technologies be through 2016?

- What combinations of costs and efficiencies are required to compete with Chinese crystalline silicon firms over the next five years?

- How do different technologies (CdTe, CIGS, tandem Si, single-junction Si) and processes (coevaporation, sputtering) perform with respect to efficiency,
yield, and equipment costs?

- Will business-model diversity, such as project development or project financing, be key to sustained success?

- How are some thin film suppliers finding niche opportunity in emerging markets and innovative application segments?

- What is the long-term module profit margin profile of different thin film module technologies?


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