Hybrid TV Prospects - Impacts of Connected TV
IDATE, December 2011, Pages: 90
Hybrid TV is now a reality, and gaining momentum. The appetite for OTT video content, reinforced by the development of connected TV solutions further exacerbates this phenomenon. This study aims to position the hybrid solutions in this new context and to measure their impact on the "big" TV markets.
Key questions
- How does the development of connected TV affect the balance between the various segments of the TV broadcasting market?
- What are the impacts on the video supply chain, and what space is there for the Internet players?
- Is the cord cutting a real threat or rather an emerging opportunity?
- What hybrid positioning for cable and IPTV operators?
- Will connected devices mean a comeback for satellite and DTT operators?
- What is the current state of play in the standardisation of hybrid solutions, and what are the results to date?
- How do the settings, networks and players of "big" TV markets influence the potential of market-specific hybrid TV?
- What are the prospects for 2015?
> This report is an add-on to our technological survey service on Connected TV Markets, featuring:
- A unique database (revenues of OTT services, volume of connected devices & player profiles)
- Ten Market Insights providing key market analyses
- Special access to our lead media analysts (hotline, briefings, online presentation, etc.)
Prospects for hybrid TV market by 2010-2015:
- United States
- Germany
- France
- United Kingdom
- Spain
- Italy
This report is part of a study that also includes a PowerPoint presentation
1 Executive Summary
1.1 IDATE estimates the market for OTT video services on the TV at EUR 3.4 billion in 2015
1.2 Connected TV, a driver for hybrid distribution
1.3 The distribution chain: Is this war?
1.4 The “hybridization” of TV distribution will have major impacts, and broadcast players must seize this opportunity
1.5 Trends in hybrid’s development and positioning of hybrid solutions
2 Methodology
3 The Market for Video Services on Connected TVs
3.1 Offerings and positioning of connected TV players and proponents
3.1.1 Types of connected TV services
3.1.2 Video services
3.1.3 User interface models
3.1.4 Positioning of players in the connected TV market
3.2 Market forecasts
3.2.1 Installed base of connected devices and active connected households
3.2.2 The market for VOD on the television
4 Market Structure & Key Issues
4.1 Why hybrid distribution?
4.1.1 OTT video: giving the people what they want
4.1.2 A new balance between linear and on-demand TV consumption
4.1.3 The TV set’s comeback
4.1.4 An underserved market
4.1.5 An addressable market for hybrid TV
4.2 TV/video distribution networks: broadcast vs. two-way
4.2.1 Broadcast networks
4.2.2 Two-way TV networks
4.2.3 The open Internet, the vehicle for connected TV services
4.3 Hybrid distribution
4.3.1 Theoretical framework
4.3.2 Three models for hybrid video distribution emerge:
5 Impact of Hybrid TV on the Dynamics of the OTT Video Industry
5.1 Industry structure
5.1.1 Content producers
5.1.2 Content programmers and packagers
5.1.3 Distribution networks
5.1.4 Software platforms
5.1.5 Connectable STBs
5.1.6 Connected TV sets
5.2 Case studies
6 Issues at Stake
6.1 Cord cutting and the strategy of pay TV operators
6.1.1 The cord-cutting phenomenon needs to be put into perspective
6.1.2 Cord shaving seems to be the major trend…but it still means the threat of subscribers jumping ship is real
6.1.3 Possible responses for pay TV operators
6.2 Bandwidth and service trade-offs made by wireline operators
6.2.1 Expected increase in online video traffic
6.2.2 Are high-speed Internet services the future for cable and IPTV?
6.3 Connected devices, a return path for satellite and DTT operators?
6.3.1 Major opportunities for TV industry players
6.3.2 This scenario does pose threats to development of the OTT offering
6.4 Standardization: TV versus the Internet?
6.4.1 A complex issue
6.4.2 First steps forward
7 Positioning of Hybrid TV Solutions on the Video Distribution Market
7.1 Market-per-market positioning of hybrid solutions
7.1.1 Key positioning criteria
7.1.2 Positioning descriptions
7.2 Hybrid TV outlook by market: Germany, Spain, France, Italy, UK, USA
7.2.1 United States: Wireline network operators dictate the direction of the market
7.2.2 Germany: Future of hybrid TV uncertain
7.2.3 France: Broadcast/IP coopetition
7.2.4 UK: Strengthening broadcast/OTT synergy
7.2.5 Spain: A central role for hybrid DTT
7.2.6 Italy: The absence of wired networks creates huge opportunities for hybrid TV
Index of Tables
Table 1: Types of connected TV service
Table 2: Distribution of the main pay VOD services and YouTube on the primary connected TV platforms in the US
Table 3: Detailed breakdown of installed base of connectable devices in the major European countries and the US, 2010-2015
Table 4: Top online video destinations in the US by average time per viewer, in May 2011
Table 5: Characteristics of video distribution networks
Table 6: Video distribution billing models in Europe for a 2.5 Mbps SDTV channel (or equivalent)
Table 7: Microsoft partnership agreements in hybrid TV worldwide
Table 8: Change in online video consumption, 2010–2015
Table 9: Positioning of hybrid TV solutions
Index of Figures
Figure 1: Estimated potential of hybrid TV market by country
Figure 2: Positioning of the key players in hybrid TV
Figure 3: Connected TV access technologies and players
Figure 4: Panasonic Viera Cast home screen
Figure 5: Philips Net TV home screen
Figure 6: Facebook widget on Verizon FiOS TV
Figure 7: Widgets on VUDU Apps
Figure 8: New Google TV interface
Figure 9: Search on Google TV
Figure 10: Positioning of the offerings of connected TV players
Figure 11: Connected TV access technologies in Europe, 2010-2015
Figure 13: Connected TV access technologies in the US, 2010-2015
Figure 14: Penetration rates of connected TV access technologies in the major European countries and the US, 2015
Figure 15: Change in value of global market for OTT video on the TV, forecast, 2010-2015
Figure 16: Breakdown of market for video services on the TV by value, Europe, 2015
Figure 17: Breakdown of market for video services on the TV by value, US, 2015
Figure 19: TV viewing vs. video streaming in the US
Figure 20: Time spent watching video by service type, US, 2007-2010
Figure 21: Modes of consumption by Netflix and Hulu users
Figure 22: Platforms and programs consumed on the Internet
Figure 23: Types of program viewed, by format
Figure 24: TV access methods compatible with OTT video services
Figure 25: Change in CAPEX of US cable operators
Figure 26: Change in CAPEX of wireline telecom operators
Figure 27: Estimated potential of hybrid TV per country, % of TVHH
Figure 29: Satellite video applications
Figure 30: Terrestrial video distribution
Figure 31: Typical HFC cable architecture
Figure 32: How multicast works for IPTV
Figure 33: How download, progressive download and streaming work
Figure 34: Consumer Internet traffic
Figure 35: Network trade-offs
Figure 36: Access to video content: a potential alternative to triple play combining a broadcast network and the open Internet
Figure 37: Positioning of key hybrid TV players along the distribution chain
Figure 38: Content release windows
Figure 39: Change in cumulative audience of top five TV channels per country
Figure 40: Overview of the OTT offerings from Amazon, Blockbuster, Hulu and Netflix
Figure 42: Description of the solution offered by Espial
Figure 43: Technical principle behind the HbbTV hybrid television standard
Figure 44: Fetch TV’s hybrid television service model
Figure 45: Most common hybrid TV model with an Internet STB
Figure 46: Installed base of Blu-ray players in the US and Europe, 2010-2015
Figure 47: DTT hybrid television on an OTT video/managed network via video game console
Figure 48: Modified game console used as an STB on a second TV set for AT&T subscribers in the US
Figure 49: Expansion of the installed base of connected TVs in the major European countries and the US, 2010-2015
Figure 50: Positioning of the key players in hybrid TV
Figure 51: TiVo interface
Figure 52: Change in the base of TiVo subscribers worldwide
Figure 53: The new Apple TV box
Figure 55: Orange portal home screen
Figure 56: Orange sports info header on the Orange portal
Figure 57: HbbTV interactive services from France Télévisions during the French Open tournament
Figure 58: Application for voting live during the France 2 TV news program
Figure 59: Change in TV subscribers in the US, by platform (Q1 2009-Q1 2011)
Figure 60: How viewers usually watch TV series in the US
Figure 62: Example of an RF frequency spectrum usage in HFC networks in Europe
Figure 63: Is Docsis 3 a potential technical solution for absorbing traffic overload?
Figure 64: Illustration of initiatives toward ITU-T and IPTV interoperability
Figure 65: Example of IPTV (ITU-T H.721) standardization for connected TVs in Japan
Figure 66: Illustration of hybrid MHP
Figure 67: HbbTV specifications
Figure 68: Modes of TV/video distribution in the US
Figure 69: Modes of TV/video distribution in Germany
Figure 70: Modes of TV/video distribution in France
Figure 71: Modes of TV/video distribution in the UK
Figure 72: Modes of TV/video distribution in Spain
Figure 73: Modes of TV/video distribution in Italy
Jacques BAJON, Head of Distribution Video Practice
Jacques joined lDATE in November 2000, working as a Senior IP video and TV ecosystems Consultant. His assignments primarily involve strategic and sector-specific examination of the television and its new distribution modes, with a focus on IP. He specifically addresses new video delivery ecosystems and linked services. Jacques’s previous experience includes freelance writer for the Eurostaf group, carrying out market research and analysis of media and telecommunications industry companies, in addition to gaining experience in market analysis working for Ericsson. Jacques holds a post-graduate research degree (DEA) in International Economics (Université Paris X Nanterre).
Alexandre JOLIN, Junior Consultant
Gilles FONTAINE, Deputy CEO
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