Syria Defence and Security Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, January 2012, Pages: 92
Business Monitor International's Syria Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Syria's defence and security industry.
Syria continues to crack down brutally on anti-regime protesters with the most recent (July 2011) assaults on Hama and the eastern towns of Deir al-Zour and Abu Kamal bringing the death toll to more than 1,400 since March 2011, when the protests and crackdown began. With international opinion over military intervention divided and little appetite in the West to get involved, President Bashar Assad’s regime would appear to be secure for now although some questions have been raised about the continued unity of the military.
There are also fears in some quarters that should Assad fall, the country, with 17 minority groups, could splinter into rival groups in a similar way to Iraq after the fall of Saddam. Regional powers Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran all have vested interests in the country and are likely to try to take advantage of any power vacuum presented by the uprising.
While Syria has accrued impressive combat experience since the formation of its armed forces in 1946, having participated in operations in Lebanon, and against Israel and Iraq, its levels of success have been mixed. In Iraq, the army was able to acquit itself well as part of the international coalition to expel Saddam Hussein from Kuwait during Operation Desert Storm in 1992. However, it has suffered several defeats at the hands of the Israelis, notably during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, and during 1982 Operation Peace for Galilee. More recently, the moribund condition of the country’s air defences was highlighted when Israel was able to bomb a suspected nuclear reactor in eastern Syria with impunity. The dismal performance of Syria’s air defences against this Israel incursion may be partially due to the condition of Syria’s military equipment. The materiel used by its armed forces is long outdated, having been sourced mostly from the Soviet Union. It is possible that military and economic ties to Iran may come into play to support the Assad regime’s survival. There has been little defence procurement in recent months since the beginning of the delivery of 50 Pantsyr-S1E air-defence systems from Russia, which began in 2010.
Syria’s economy has stalled, while the closed borders have brought tourism to a standstill. Its only trading partners are Iran and North Korea. Even before the uprising began in March, the country was facing a catalogue of problems with an estimated 25% unemployment and water shortages exacerbating structural difficulties such as population growth and international isolation.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Syria Security SWOT
Syria Defence Industry SWOT
Syria Political SWOT
Syria Economic SWOT
Syria Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Middle East In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Regional Power Dynamics
Nuclear Proliferation
External Powers
Scenarios For The Middle East
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Regional Outlook
Foreign Affairs
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Latest Developments
Market Overview
Imports
Exports
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Syria’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Syria’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Syrian Government Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Syria’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Syria – Macroeconomic Activity, 2008-2015
Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
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