- Language: English
- Published: June 2012
- Region: United Arab Emirates
United Arab Emirates Defence and Security Report Q1 2012
- Published: January 2012
- Region: United Arab Emirates
- 99 Pages
- Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International's United Arab Emirates Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United Arab Emirates's defence and security industry.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has maintained political and economic stability in a region fraught with turbulence. High living standards and high levels of employment contribute to a stable community unlikely to cause upheaval such as is occurring across other Middle East and North Africa (MENA) nations. As a result, the UAE has successfully attracted foreign investment in a way that its neighbours have not been able to do. Their GDP growth forecast for 2011 and 2012 remains at 3.3% as high oil prices have helped the UAE bounce back from the 2009 global financial crisis.
Its ties with Western nations and multinational companies, as well as its oil and natural gas resources, plus its geographic position on the Arabian Sea put the UAE in a strong strategic position. This also forces the UAE to play a complicated diplomatic game of balancing its relations with the West and maintaining its credibility as a regional player.
This complicated balancing act has been on full display over recent months. The UAE played a crucial role both diplomatically and militarily in the Libyan conflict. It provided western nations with muchneeded Arab support for the NATO action and provided 12 jet fighter planes to the effort. The UAE has also played an important role in the ongoing Somali famine. Al-Shabab, the Al-Qaeda affiliated militant group that controls much of the country, has barred most Western aid agencies from operating in large swathes of Somalia. The group, however, has been more open to NGO’s from Arab countries, and the UAE has played an important role in getting aid into Somalia. Both of these operations have put the UAE firmly on the side of the US and other Western nations, demonstrating the relatively positive and constructive relationship the country has with the West.
At the same time, the UAE has split from the US and other western countries on another important regional issue – Palestine’s bid for recognition at the UN. The UAE has supported the bid, which is strongly opposed by the US and others in the West. This relationship with the West – characterised by cooperation on some important regional defence and security issues but also deep differences on other issues – is likely to persist.
In absolute terms, the UAE remains a major purchaser of high technology arms and materiel; overall defence spending is expected to rise sharply over the next five years. However, the country has scaled back some original orders in response to budgetary constraints. For example, reports have emerged that the UAE is considering scaling back its approximate US$7.0bn deal with Lockheed Martin for the purchase of the Thermal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.
The UAE has participated in various military training and cooperative exercises, with nations such as South Korea billeting troops with UAE troops. Until 2010, Canadian troops were also deployed in the UAE, but a diplomatic dispute between the nations forced them to leave. As US troops pull out of Iraq it is likely that the US will seek to deepen on-the-ground military ties with its regional allies, including the UAE. It is unclear as yet what form that cooperation might take, but is certain to play a central role in the future of US-UAE military ties.
The UAE has observed carefully as the nations around it face military action. Always strong in army numbers, it has begun lately to improve its air force and navy, conducting purchases of military technology and improving its personnel training procedures. Recent procurements include aircraft and defence systems, many with specific upgrades to suit UAE requirements.
Despite some suspicion from Western nations, the UAE is pushing ahead with its nuclear energy programme. That the West has largely accepted the UAE’s nuclear programme highlights the strategic importance of the country to the West, as well as its diplomatic acumen. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
United Arab Emirates Security SWOT
United Arab Emirates Defence Industry SWOT
United Arab Emirates Business Environment SWOT
United Arab Emirates Political SWOT
United Arab Emirates Economic SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Middle East In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Regional Power Dynamics
Scenarios For The Middle East
What If Assad’s Regime Falls? Scenarios Assessed
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
UAE Security Risks
Long-Term Political Outlook
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Insurgency And Terrorism
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: The UAE’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: UAE’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Table: The UAE’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2016
Table: UAE Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Table: The UAE’s Defence Exports, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Table: The UAE’s Defence Imports, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Table: The UAE’s Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Table: United Arab Emirates – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2008-2016 (AEDbn, unless stated)
Abu Dhabi Ship Building Company (ADSB)
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Abu Dhabi Ship Building Company (ADSB)