Mexico Shipping Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, January 2012, Pages: 124
Business Monitor International's Mexico Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's shipping industry.
BMI remains optimistic on the Mexican port sector. It is forecasting real GDP growth of 3.1% for Mexico in 2012 in response to slowing global growth which it believes will reverse nascent private consumption and investment growth. While BMI has been pleasantly surprised by the strong export growth over the past 18 months, it notes that it has not translated into strong private consumption, which remains significantly off its pre-crisis highs. BMI believes that for private consumption to fully recover, the economy needs at least a few more quarters of strong US demand to bolster jobs growth and disposable income.
Mexican export growth has clearly been bolstered by the recovery in the US economy since mid-2009, but the pace of growth - averaging 19.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) between January and August 2011, following 30% growth in 2010 - has surprised us. Although BMI forecasts Mexico's primary trading partner, the US, to see sluggish GDP growth over the next few years, it believes that Mexican exports will expand by an average annual pace of almost 10% over the next five to 10 years on the back of vehicles and machinery exports and extractive exports, such as silver and copper, boosting port throughput.
Headline Industry Data:
- Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2012 is estimated to hit 3.8%, with average annual growth of 6.06% during our forecast period.
- Port of Veracruz total tonnage growth in 2012 is estimated to hit 6.35%, with average annual growth of 7.6% during our forecast period.
Key Trends And Developments:
Drop-Off In US Demand Raises Fears For Lázaro Cárdenas' Throughput with US and Mexican consumer demand remaining sluggish
BMI believes throughput volumes at the Gulf Coast port of Lázaro Cárdenas are under threat. As such, BMI is unsure of how much international interest two new tenders to develop and operate terminals at the port will attract.
Risks To Outlook:
On the downside, our outlook for Mexican consumers remains sluggish. Consumer confidence surveys suggest that the Mexican consumer remains very wary. Over the long term BMI believes Mexican consumer demand will continue to be undermined by the lack of competitiveness in key sectors, lack of fiscal reform and overdependence on the US economic cycle.
Further downside risk to throughput at Mexican ports is presented in the form of sluggish US consumer sentiment. With 80% of exports still destined for the US market, growth is clearly dependent on the US economy not falling back into recession.
SWOT Analysis
Mexico Shipping SWOT
Mexico Political SWOT
Mexico Economic SWOT
Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping
Lines To Enter 2012 In The Red
Overcapacity To Plague Medium Term, Beware 2013
Table: Snapshot Of Container Lines' Orders
ETR Short And Long Term Benefits To Woo Carrier Expansion
Table: Top 20 World Ports
Port Operators To Face Tougher 2012 As Box Volumes Slow
Container Curse To Hit Box Manufacturers, But Outlook Strong
Dry Bulk
Chinese Slowdown Threat Double Downside Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping
Vale May Find Solace With South Korea As Chinese Troubles Continue
Lines Need To Up Capacity Reduction Strategies To Ease Oversupply
Dry Bulk Lines In Choppy Waters, Possibility Of More Bankruptcies
Liquid Bulk
Dirty Tanker Indices Not Very Buoyant
Differing Strategies, Differing Fortunes
Genmar Bankruptcy Just The Beginning
Survival Strategies For Floundering Tanker Operators
Rumoured Chinese Order Has Potential To Sink Crude Oil Shipping Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
Port Of Manzanillo
Shipping
Congestion
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Expansions And Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Port Of Veracruz
Shipping
Congestion
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Expansions And Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
Port Of Manzanillo
Port Of Veracruz
Table: Major Port Data – Throughput, 2007-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Mexico’s Main Import Partners, 2003-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Mexico’s Main Export Partners, 2003-2009 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
APL
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
CSAV
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- APL
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- CSAV
Product Samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW5
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
