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4th Annual Online Retail Payments Forecast 2011-2016:
Description:
Despite global economic uncertainty and the looming threat of a double-dip recession, the U.S. online retail transaction market continued to grow throughout 2011 to $309 billion, from $266 billion in 2010. This report evaluates the actual and forecast changes in the online retail payments market, tracking payments mix data from 2010 through the forecast year of 2016 and identifying key drivers of market change. In addition to identifying domestic e-commerce growth during 2011, this report contains Javelin forecasts for total online retail payments volume and analyzes share and transaction growth in the online marketplace for credit cards (network and private label), debit cards, online alternative payments and prepaid and gift cards.
Primary Questions
- What are the major trends for domestic e-commerce retail payment transactions?
- How will traditional online payments vehicles — credit and debit cards — fare as new payment options are introduced and new regulations influence consumer preferences?
- Will debit card usage continue to grow in popularity, or will new regulations shift market share back to credit cards?
- What factors influence consumer adoption and the use of various payment options for online purchasing?
- How has consumer receptivity to online purchasing changed over time, and how will it continue to evolve?
Using data collected online by Javelin in August 2011 from a random-sample panel of 2,304 consumers, the survey targeted respondents based on proportions of gender, age and income representative of those of the overall U.S. population. According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the projected 2011 U.S. population is estimated to be 312 million people.1 Overall margin of sampling error is ±2.04% at the 95% confidence level.
Secondary data from public sources such as the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was incorporated into the forecast. Javelin derived the forecast using a combination of personal income forecasts from the OMB and BEA. The ratio of total retail to personal income was also drawn from these studies.
The total online retail payment volume was derived through survey results and a reweighting by payment type based on regularly revised U.S. Census e-commerce data, U.S. online travel purchase estimates (based on BEA data) and publicly available payments activity data from major service providers (e.g., Visa, MasterCard, Discover, American Express, eBay). The reweighting maintains survey integrity while anchoring the forecast to concrete market data developed by secondary sources. Prior years were also reweighted to maintain accurate trendability.
Primary Questions
- What are the major trends for domestic e-commerce retail payment transactions?
- How will traditional online payments vehicles — credit and debit cards — fare as new payment options are introduced and new regulations influence consumer preferences?
- Will debit card usage continue to grow in popularity, or will new regulations shift market share back to credit cards?
- What factors influence consumer adoption and the use of various payment options for online purchasing?
- How has consumer receptivity to online purchasing changed over time, and how will it continue to evolve?
Using data collected online by Javelin in August 2011 from a random-sample panel of 2,304 consumers, the survey targeted respondents based on proportions of gender, age and income representative of those of the overall U.S. population. According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the projected 2011 U.S. population is estimated to be 312 million people.1 Overall margin of sampling error is ±2.04% at the 95% confidence level.
Secondary data from public sources such as the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was incorporated into the forecast. Javelin derived the forecast using a combination of personal income forecasts from the OMB and BEA. The ratio of total retail to personal income was also drawn from these studies.
The total online retail payment volume was derived through survey results and a reweighting by payment type based on regularly revised U.S. Census e-commerce data, U.S. online travel purchase estimates (based on BEA data) and publicly available payments activity data from major service providers (e.g., Visa, MasterCard, Discover, American Express, eBay). The reweighting maintains survey integrity while anchoring the forecast to concrete market data developed by secondary sources. Prior years were also reweighted to maintain accurate trendability.
Contents:
Overview
Primary Questions
Methodology
Executive Summary
E-Commerce Activity and Payments Mix Forecast
Payments Mix
The Power Shifts Once Again: Trends in the Use of Credit and Debit Cards for Online Purchasing
Decline in Credit Card Use Has Plateaued after Recessionary Plunge
Regulations Rock Future Growth of Debit Card
Online Alternative Payments Continues Steady Growth
Sidebar: Which Payment Type Will Reign in the Virtual Economy?
Prepaid and Gift Cards Well Positioned To Benefit from Emerging Online Markets
Appendix
Related Research
Companies Mentioned
Table of Figures
Figure 1: US Retail E-Commerce Transaction Dollar Volume and Share of Purchases Made Online, 2000 - 2016
Figure 2: Frequency of Online Purchasing by Consumers, 2008-2011
Figure 3: Key Factors that Would Encourage Consumers to Make More Online Purchases
Figure 4: Share of Total Online Payments Volume ($) by Key Payment Category, 2010 – 2016
Figure 5: Online Total Payments Summary Table, 2011 – 2016
Figure 6: Average Amount Typically Spent on an Online Purchase Using Particular Payment Methods
Figure 7: Benefits That May Influence Consumers to Try a Different/New Payment Option, by Online Shoppers and Non-Online Shoppers
Figure 8: Consumer Use of Major Credit or Debit Cards for Online Purchase in Past 12 Months, 2007 – 2011
Figure 9: Frequency of Consumer Credit Card Use for an Online Purchase, 2008 – 2011
Figure 10: Major Credit Card and Store-Branded Credit Card Online Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2010 – 2016
Figure 11: Debit Card Online Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2010 – 2016
Figure 12: Online Alternative Payments Dollar Volume and Share, 2010-2016
Figure 13: Consumers Who Have Used an Online Alternative Payment Option by Type, 2010-2011
Figure 14: Leading Reasons Consumers Chose Alternative Online Payments Over Debit or Credit Cards
Figure 15: Prepaid and Gift Card Online Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2010 - 2016
Figure 16: Five Year Average of US Online Adult Buyers and Total Online Purchase Volume, 2010 - 2016
Figure 17: Average Number of Purchases Made in a Typical Month, by Generation and All Online Shoppers
Figure 18: Key Reasons Consumers Do Not Make Online Purchases
Figure 19: Percent of Consumers Who Have Experienced a Change in their Ability to Pay off Credit Card Debt, 2008 and 2010- 2011
Figure 20: Percent of Consumers Indicating They Would Move Away from Debit if Monthly Fees were Added
Figure 21: Percent of Consumers Who Have Used a Particular Payment Option in the Past 12 Months, 2010-2011
Figure 22: Percent of Consumers Who Use Facebook, by Payment Product Usage
Primary Questions
Methodology
Executive Summary
E-Commerce Activity and Payments Mix Forecast
Payments Mix
The Power Shifts Once Again: Trends in the Use of Credit and Debit Cards for Online Purchasing
Decline in Credit Card Use Has Plateaued after Recessionary Plunge
Regulations Rock Future Growth of Debit Card
Online Alternative Payments Continues Steady Growth
Sidebar: Which Payment Type Will Reign in the Virtual Economy?
Prepaid and Gift Cards Well Positioned To Benefit from Emerging Online Markets
Appendix
Related Research
Companies Mentioned
Table of Figures
Figure 1: US Retail E-Commerce Transaction Dollar Volume and Share of Purchases Made Online, 2000 - 2016
Figure 2: Frequency of Online Purchasing by Consumers, 2008-2011
Figure 3: Key Factors that Would Encourage Consumers to Make More Online Purchases
Figure 4: Share of Total Online Payments Volume ($) by Key Payment Category, 2010 – 2016
Figure 5: Online Total Payments Summary Table, 2011 – 2016
Figure 6: Average Amount Typically Spent on an Online Purchase Using Particular Payment Methods
Figure 7: Benefits That May Influence Consumers to Try a Different/New Payment Option, by Online Shoppers and Non-Online Shoppers
Figure 8: Consumer Use of Major Credit or Debit Cards for Online Purchase in Past 12 Months, 2007 – 2011
Figure 9: Frequency of Consumer Credit Card Use for an Online Purchase, 2008 – 2011
Figure 10: Major Credit Card and Store-Branded Credit Card Online Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2010 – 2016
Figure 11: Debit Card Online Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2010 – 2016
Figure 12: Online Alternative Payments Dollar Volume and Share, 2010-2016
Figure 13: Consumers Who Have Used an Online Alternative Payment Option by Type, 2010-2011
Figure 14: Leading Reasons Consumers Chose Alternative Online Payments Over Debit or Credit Cards
Figure 15: Prepaid and Gift Card Online Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2010 - 2016
Figure 16: Five Year Average of US Online Adult Buyers and Total Online Purchase Volume, 2010 - 2016
Figure 17: Average Number of Purchases Made in a Typical Month, by Generation and All Online Shoppers
Figure 18: Key Reasons Consumers Do Not Make Online Purchases
Figure 19: Percent of Consumers Who Have Experienced a Change in their Ability to Pay off Credit Card Debt, 2008 and 2010- 2011
Figure 20: Percent of Consumers Indicating They Would Move Away from Debit if Monthly Fees were Added
Figure 21: Percent of Consumers Who Have Used a Particular Payment Option in the Past 12 Months, 2010-2011
Figure 22: Percent of Consumers Who Use Facebook, by Payment Product Usage
Companies Mentioned
- Amazon Payments
- MasterCard
- American Express
- PayPal
- Bank of America
- Playfish
- Bill Me Later
- PlaySpan
- Citibank
- SunTrust
- Discover
- TD Bank
- eBay
- U.S. Bank
- eBillme
- Visa
- Facebook
- Wells Fargo
- Google Checkout
- Zeevex
- JPMorgan Chase
- MasterCard
- American Express
- PayPal
- Bank of America
- Playfish
- Bill Me Later
- PlaySpan
- Citibank
- SunTrust
- Discover
- TD Bank
- eBay
- U.S. Bank
- eBillme
- Visa
- Wells Fargo
- Google Checkout
- Zeevex
- JPMorgan Chase
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