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4th Annual Online Retail Payments Forecast 2011-2016:
Javelin Strategy & Research, Nov 2011, Pages: 34
Despite global economic uncertainty and the looming threat of a double-dip recession, the U.S. online retail transaction market continued to grow throughout 2011 to $309 billion, from $266 billion in 2010. This report evaluates the actual and forecast changes in the online retail payments market, tracking payments mix data from 2010 through the forecast year of 2016 and identifying key drivers of market change. In addition to identifying domestic e-commerce growth during 2011, this report contains Javelin forecasts for total online retail payments volume and analyzes share and transaction growth in the online marketplace for credit cards (network and private label), debit cards, online alternative payments and prepaid and gift cards.
Primary Questions
- What are the major trends for domestic e-commerce retail payment transactions?
- How will traditional online payments vehicles — credit and debit cards — fare as new payment options are introduced and new regulations influence consumer preferences?
- Will debit card usage continue to grow in popularity, or will new regulations shift market share back to credit cards?
- What factors influence consumer adoption and the use of various payment options for online purchasing?
- How has consumer receptivity to online purchasing changed over time, and how will it continue to evolve?
Using data collected online by Javelin in August 2011 from a random-sample panel of 2,304 consumers, the survey targeted respondents based on proportions of gender, age and income representative of those of the overall U.S. population. According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the projected 2011 U.S. population is estimated to be 312 million people.1 Overall margin of sampling error is ±2.04% at the 95% confidence level.
Secondary data from public sources such as the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was incorporated into the forecast. Javelin derived the forecast using a combination of personal income forecasts from the OMB and BEA. The ratio of total retail to personal income was also drawn from these studies.
The total online retail payment volume was derived through survey results and a reweighting by payment type based on regularly revised U.S. Census e-commerce data, U.S. online travel purchase estimates (based on BEA data) and publicly available payments activity data from major service providers (e.g., Visa, MasterCard, Discover, American Express, eBay). The reweighting maintains survey integrity while anchoring the forecast to concrete market data developed by secondary sources. Prior years were also reweighted to maintain accurate trendability.
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