Netherlands Food and Drink Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, January 2012, Pages: 85
Business Monitor International's Netherlands Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Netherlands's food and drink industry.
The Dutch economy returned to growth in 2010, with full-year GDP coming in at 1.8% year-on-year (yo-y). However, in the second half of 2011, confidence has been shaken by the ongoing troubles within the eurozone. Private consumption contracted for three consecutive quarters in 2011, declining 1.1% y-o-y in Q311 (following already weak growth of 0.4% y-o-y in 2010). BMI has therefore been prompted to revise its outlook for Dutch private consumption, forecasting private consumption growth of 0.2% y-o-y in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013. Both producer and consumer confidence are steadily turning lower and, with fiscal austerity set to bite further in the medium term, BMI expects the job market to remain under pressure. Several factors will act as a drag on household consumption over the coming quarters. In particular, fiscal austerity measures will increasingly bite as Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s right-wing coalition pursues its mandate to cut public spending by EUR18bn.
Headline Industry Data:
- 2012 per capita food consumption = +3.2%; forecast to 2016 = +21.9%
- 2012 alcoholic drink sales = +2.9%; forecast to 2016 = +20.6%
- 2012 soft drink sales =+4.4%; forecast to 2016 = +31.2%
- 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +5.5%; forecast to 2016 = +38.0%
Key Industry Trends & Developments:
Jumbo Emerges As Genuine Ahold Challenger After C1000 Buy
The Dutch supermarket sector looks set to become a two-horse race after local retailer Jumbo announced in November 2011 that it has agreed to buy the C1000 supermarket chain from private equity group CVC Capital Partners. The move follows the acquisition of domestic rival Super De Boer and will cement the firm’s position as the country’s second largest retailer. Jumbo’s increased reach looks set to change the retailing landscape in a country where Ahold has so far dominated with market share of 34%.
Unilever May Eventually Leave Food Sector (But Not Yet)
In November 2011, ratings agency Fitch suggested that Anglo-Dutch consumer goods firm Unilever is likely to continue shedding food brands in an attempt to increase its focus on its personal care business. BMI has previously identified that Unilever is currently showing much greater interest in the personal care side of its business, and BMI has suggested that its valuation could benefit from splitting its food and personal care operations into separate companies. That said, Unilever’s strong exposure to emerging markets is partly a result of the wide reach of its food business; BMI would caution that, while personal care may be a stronger performer in developed markets, the food business is likely to continue playing a key role in building brand awareness and distribution in key emerging markets for some time to come.
Key Risks To Outlook:
Export Growth Faltering: It is BMI's core view that export growth, although remaining strong, has probably peaked as the rapid expansion in export orders seen in 2010 is now losing some steam. Export growth has slowed markedly in 2011, and BMI expects a continuation of this trend to keep wider economic growth in check.
Eurozone Debt Crisis: Meanwhile, the ongoing eurozone crisis poses a threat to investor confidence throughout the entire region. The risk of a major sovereign credit event in Europe would further damage confidence, putting significant pressure on export demand and, therefore, on the Netherlands’ economic growth and consumption. While BMI expects Dutch sovereign bond yields to remain relatively insulated from wider market jitters, a continued deterioration in the regional crisis could drag on economic growth.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Netherlands Food Industry SWOT
Netherlands Drink Industry SWOT
Netherlands Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Food Prices, 2010 And 2011
Table: BMI’s Core Views For The Food & Drink Industry
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: United Kingdom Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings – Q112
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings – Q112
Netherlands Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Confectionery
Table: Meat
Table: Oils & Fats
Table: Dairy
Table: Jams & Jellies
Drink
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Breakdown By Format
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data & Forecasts
Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Halloren Looks To Steenland For Chocolate Growth
Unilever May Eventually Leave Food Sector (But Not Yet)
Heinz Centralises European Supply Chain In The Netherlands
Unilever Restructures To Focus On Emerging Markets
Dairy Giant Poised For Growth
Netherlands Positioned As Research And Development Hub
Market Overview
Food
Dairy
Drink
Key Industry Trends & Developments
Heineken Misses Opportunity With Schincariol
Heineken Growing In Emerging Markets As Europe Drags
Refresco’s Consolidation Of Private-Label Soft Drinks Has Long-Term Merit
Market Overview
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Data
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Jumbo Emerges As Genuine Ahold Challenger After C1000 Buy
Ahold Reveals Plans For German Entry With Convenience Stores
Ahold Can Make Progress In Belgium With Low-Price Model
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format – 2009
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Dutch Food Sector
Table: Key Players In Dutch Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Dutch Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Company Monitor
Food
Unilever
FrieslandCampina
Drink
Heineken International
Mass Grocery Retail
Ahold
BMI Food & Drink Methodology
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sources
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
- Unilever
- FrieslandCampina
- Heineken International
- Ahold
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