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Poland Agribusiness Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 75
Business Monitor International's Poland Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Poland's agribusiness service.
BMI View: BMI expect poultry to remain one of Poland's most significant agricultural sectors, driven by export demand from the EU. However, the forthcoming entry to the EU market of Ukrainian poultry poses a threat to Polish exports and raises the possibility of a price war that could take some of the wind out of the industry's sails. For grains, sugar and dairy, financial support as well as sector reforms imposed by the EU should help production to recover strongly over BMI's forecast period.
Key forecasts:
- Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 10.3% to 12.0mn tonnes. This will come as EU reforms of the sugar sector come gradually online until full abolition of sugar production quotas in 2015.
- Cheese consumption growth to 2016: 48.4% to 1.2mn tonnes. This will come as sales of traditional cheese like oscypek are growing, driven by the cheese's registration as a protected designation of origin product in early 2008.
- Wheat production growth to 2015/16: 3.6% to 9.8mn tonnes. This will come as the EU's Rural Development Plan 2007-2013, for which Poland has a budget of EUR17.2bn, will encourage consolidation, modernisation of agricultural holdings and infrastructure improvements in the country's grain farms, boosting yields of all three grains covered in this report.
- 2012 Real GDP Growth: 2.6% (down from 4.0% in 2011; predicted to average 3.8% from 2011 until 2016).
- Consumer Price Inflation: 4.6% year-on-year in November 2011 (slightly up from 4.3% y-o-y in November 2010).
Industry developments:
BMI has revised up its forecast for EU-27 sugar production to 2015/16 on increased out-of quota output and in anticipation of the abolition of sugar production quotas in 2015, which is part of the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In fact, BMI now forecasts production to increase 10.9% year-on-year to 16.7mn tonnes in 2011/12, and project production to reach 18.2mn tonnes by 2015/16. This is because of recent measures taken by the European Commission (EC) to increase out-of-quota sugar exports, encouraging farmers to increase sugar plantings in 2011/12.
BMI expects Ukrainian imports to receive the green light from the EC before long. This is likely to have an effect on Polish exports, since Ukrainian poultry is price competitive with its Polish equivalent. The result is likely to be downward pressure on the prices fetched for Polish poultry exports, which BMI estimates are likely to reach about 500,000 tonnes in 2011.
Polish demand for US bovine genetics continues to expand in 2011 as the country imported 10% more bovine genetics in value than over the same period in 2010. In 2010, Polish imports of US genetics amounted to US$1.2mn, 46.0% higher than in 2009. Demand for US genetics is mainly attributed to development of the Polish livestock and dairy sector after the 2004 accession into the EU and the Polish and US Holstein Association agreement signed in April 2009, which helped eliminate several trade barriers.
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