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Chile Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012

Description:

Business Monitor International's Chile Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's oil and gas industry.

BMI View:

With limited domestic oil and gas resources and rapidly rising demand, Chile is set to become increasingly reliant on imports. Rising gas demand will require the country to import more LNG cargoes at a time when the global LNG market is becoming more crowded. The country’s oil dependence will also continue to prove far more expensive than in the past. We forecast the cost of oil imports to remain above US$11bn per year over the coming decade, more than five times the price the country was paying in the early 2000s.

- Chile’s minimal oil production is forecast to continue declining over the coming decade, while rising demand is expected to see imports increase by about 7% from 2011 to 2016. BMI forecasts oil production will fall from 10,230 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to just 5,000b/d in 2016. Over the same period, oil consumption is expected to rise from around 314,200b/d to 336,510b/d, requiring a rise in imports – from 303,970b/d to 331,510 b/d.

- Gas imports will also be on the rise as demand grows and production remains flat. Production is expected to remain at around 0.8bn cubic metres (bcm) beyond 2011 after falling quickly over the latter half of the last decade. Consumption, meanwhile, will rise from around 4.2bcm in 2011 to 6.6bcm in 2016, as the country makes greater use of gas in the energy mix. This will mean imports rise from 3.36bcm in 2011 to just over 6bcm in 2016, mostly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

- Those trends are expected to continue over the latter half of the 10-year forecast period. With limited investment channelled into new exploration, oil production is forecast to decline further to a negligible 2,500b/d by 2021, while demand is expected to rise to nearly 360,000b/d, almost all of which will come from imports. Gas production is seen at 0.7bcm in 2021, while consumption is forecast to rise to nearly 9bcm, requiring imports of around 8bcm by 2020.

- BMI's oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket; falling to US$99.38/bbl in 2012 and US$97.23/bbl in 2013. BMI's long-term price assumption for the OPEC basket is US$93.23/bbl. At this price, BMI forecasts Chile’s oil import bill to be US$11.4bn in 2016 and over US$12bn by 2021.

- Chile’s oil and gas sector is open to foreign investment, but a limited resource base has seen foreign investment focused on the country’s southern cone neighbours Argentina and Brazil. State oil and gas company Empresa Nacional del Petróleo (ENAP) is responsible for all domestic oil and gas production. Important foreign investors include Brazil’s state-run Petrobras, Anglo-Dutch major Royal Dutch Shell and GeoPark.

Contents:

BMI Industry View

SWOT Analysis
Chile Oil and Gas SWOT

Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016

Regional Energy Market Outlook
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Oil: Downstream
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Latin America LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016
Chile Energy Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Liquefied Natural Gas
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Chile Oil and Gas Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Chile
Service Stations
Gas Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Table: LNG Terminals In Chile
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Latin America Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Ratings
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings

Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
Second International Magallanes Tender
First International Magallanes Tender
International Energy Relations
Argentina
Trinidad & Tobago
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players

Company Monitor
ENAP – Empresa Nacional del Petróleo
Copec (Compañía de Petróleos de Chile)
Shell Chile
Petrobras Chile
Petróleos Transandinos Repsol YPF
GeoPark Holdings
Wintershall – Summary
ExxonMobil Cono Sur – Summary
Pan American Energy – Summary
GDF Suez – Summary
Methanex – Summary
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Latin America Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Latin America – Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts

Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms

Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources

Companies Mentioned

- Copec (Compañía de Petróleos de Chile)
- ENAP – Empresa Nacional del Petróleo
- ExxonMobil Cono Sur
- GDF Suez
- GeoPark Holdings
- Methanex
- Pan American Energy
- Petrobras Chile
- Petróleos Transandinos Repsol YPF
- Shell Chile
- Wintershall

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Chile Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012

Fax order form

Order information

Product name

Web Address

Office Code

Report Formats

Contact information

Please fax this form to: (646) 607-1907 or (646) 964-6609 (from USA) +353-1-481-1716 or +353-1-653-1571 (from Rest of World)

Payment information

Please fax this form to: (646) 607-1907 or (646) 964-6609 (from USA) +353-1-481-1716 or +353-1-653-1571 (from Rest of World)

Please fax this form to:
(646) 607-1907 or (646) 964-6609 (from USA)
+353-1-481-1716 or +353-1-653-1571 (from Rest of World)

Please fax this form to:
(646) 607-1907 or (646) 964-6609 (from USA)
+353-1-481-1716 or +353-1-653-1571 (from Rest of World)