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Colombia Power Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 52
Business Monitor International's Colombia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's power industry.
BMI View:
Colombia continues to turn to hydropower as its key source of energy, and while droughts are considered to be the key risk to this type of energy, the case of EPM’s Ponce IV – which was suspended at the beginning of 2011 – demonstrates that hydroelectricity can have other problems. Nuclear power continues to remain off the agenda, but gains have been made in thermal power with the opening of the 600MW Flores IV in November 2011. Internationally, Colombia has the potential to boost its energy export profile, with the country renewing exports to Venezuela in June 2011 after a three year gap, and with plans to export energy to Panama on target for a 2014 start date.
Hydroelectric sources of energy continue to dominate the energy mix in Colombia, with the country’s National Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME) estimating that hydropower accounts for 80% of Colombia’s energy production in wet years. Developments here include two new hydropower plants developed by Unión Fenosa/EPSA. – Alto and Bajo Tuluá – which will become operational in 2012, and Endesa’s announcement that is plans to construct a 180MW hydroelectric plant in Oporapa, a project which is currently being studied. EPM’s Ponce IV hydroelectric project was suspended indefinitely, however, with the utility citing the decision being due to numerous problems.
The government is taking some small steps to diversify its sources of energy, and the inauguration of Flores IV in Barranquilla in November 2011 is one example of this. The 600MW thermal power plant, constructed by Colinversiones, is the result of the closure of Flores II and Flores III, modernising the two to create a combined cycle power plant.
In June 2011, Colombia restarted energy exports to Venezuela – these had been stopped since April 2008 – and the two countries agreed in November 2011 to construct a hydroelectric power plant that will provide electricity for residents of border towns. Colombia’s plans to export electricity to Panama are also on target, with a start date of 2014.
During 2011-2016, BMI forecasts that Colombia’s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 3.9%, reaching 67.4TWh. Driving this growth are annual gains of 4.2% and 6.0% in hydroelectric power and renewables generation respectively. Coal and gas-fired generation are forecast to increase by an annual average of 2.5% and 2.3% respectively.
Following a forecast increase in real GDP of 5.7% in 2011, BMI expects average annual growth of 4.7% between 2011 and 2021. Net power consumption looks set to increase from 44.9TWh to 55.0TWh by 2016, rising further to 66.4TWh by 2021. The theoretical net import requirement by 2016 is put at 1.0TWh, and should stay around this level to 2021.
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