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Egypt Power Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 49
Business Monitor International's Egypt Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's power industry.
BMI View:
In spite of substantial renewables potential, particularly in solar and wind sectors, Egypt looks set to remain over-dependent on gas- and oil-fired generation until it can proceed with plans for a nuclear reactor. Greater domestic and regional political stability makes the nuclear option more realistic. In the meantime, we can expect to see steady but unspectacular progress in developing renewables-based electricity supply.
Government policy in relation to the energy sector may change in the wake of the political upheaval which swept the country in 2011, meaning that plans for nuclear and renewables schemes may be modified or even abandoned. Given the need to reduce dependence on gas in particular, it is hoped that Egypt will place greater emphasis on its considerable solar and wind potential.
Key trends and recent developments in the Egyptian electricity market include:
- During the period 2011-2016, Egypt’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 4.48%, reaching 178.8 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 5.38% gain in gas-fired generation and a 3.05% rise in hydropower generation, accompanied by annual increases in excess of 9% for renewables-based electricity supply.
- Egypt has set a target of producing 12% of its power from wind and a total of 20% from renewables by 2020. It is also looking to attract US$110bn of investment into its power sector by 2027. Egypt plans to boost dramatically the portion of energy coming from renewable sources, getting 20% of the projected 60GW of demand in 2020 from renewables. Wind would provide around 7.2GW of that total.
- Following an estimated 1.8% increase in 2011 real GDP, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 5.1% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from 82.5mn to 89.6mn during the period 2011-2016, and net power consumption looks set to increase from an estimated 125.6TWh in 2011 to 159.5TWh by 2016, rising further to 202.9TWh by 2021. During the period 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 4.59%, but this will accelerate later in the decade to an average 4.92% in 2016-2021.
- Thanks partly to the projected rise in net generation, which lags the underlying demand trend, Egypt’s power supply surplus is likely to all steadily and potentially become a growing shortfall unless extra capacity is added. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from an estimated 11.1% in 2011 will help support the market. The theoretical net import requirement by 2016 is put at just 0.14TWh, which could turn into a need for 5.05TWh by 2021 if investment falls short of the required level.
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