Finland Telecommunications Report Q1 2012

Business Monitor International's Finland Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Finland's telecommunications industry.

In this quarter's update of BMI's Finland Telecommunications Market report, BMI has extended its forecasts for the country's fixed-line, broadband and mobile telephony sectors through to 2016. BMIhas also taken the opportunity to integrate new market data from the regulator, FICORA, regarding the fixedline market, which appears to be declining at a faster rate than expected. Some minor adjustments have been made to BMI's mobile and broadband forecasts as operators' growth in these areas during Q311 were broadly within expectations.

The fixed-line market is now believed to have declined by 14.7% in 2010, much faster than previously reported and faster than the decline in previous years. Data covering the period through to June 2011 suggest an even faster rate of decline, which is borne out by Q311 data from the three largest players:

TeliaSonera, Elisa Communications and DNA (the fourth operator, Finnet Group, does not disclose subscriber numbers). BMI now expects the number of fixed-line connections to fall below 1mn before the end of the forecast period. By 2016, there will be 981,000 lines in service, a penetration rate of 17.9%. Key operators have, for some time, been saying that they are forsaking investment in traditional fixed-line platforms in favour of wireless and fibre technologies as Finns increasingly turn to broadband for their communications needs.

xDSL remains the primary means of fixed broadband access, but demand has slowed as traditional copper access lines are abandoned and the emphasis has switched to wireless. Here, mobile broadband dominates, accounted for 1.8mn subscribers by June 2011.

Operators are rapidly deploying HSPA/HSPA+ upgrades, allowing data transfer rates of up to 42Mbps, while also beginning to roll out fourth-generation (4G) networks based on the LTE technology standard. BMI therefore expects mobile to drive broadband uptake over the coming five years and forecast 4.67mn broadband subscribers by 2016, a penetration rate of 85.3%. IPTV services are increasingly being deployed as an incentive to keep customers to fixed connections, but uptake has been poor due to the highly cabled nature of the Finnish pay-TV sector.

The mobile sector itself continues to have robust growth rates, although TeliaSonera's net losses have been mounting in 2011 and it has relinquished its market leader position to Elisa. TeliaSonera's poor performance is indicative of the highly saturated nature of the market and BMI expects to see a fairly rapid slowdown in customer addition rates from 2012.

Efforts to shed low-value prepaid customers in favour of focusing on more valuable postpaid subscribers appears to be reaping rewards, as data service revenue continue to grow. However, regulator-imposed mobile termination rates (MTR) and interconnection charge reductions are mostly offsetting those gains. It will be another two or three years yet before conditions truly favour the new focus on postpaid and non-voice services. By 2016 BMI forecasts there will be 10.059mn mobile subscribers, of which 4.698mn will be on 3G services

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
Finland Mobile SWOT Analysis
Finland Wireline SWOT Analysis
Finland Political SWOT
Finland Economic SWOT

Business Environment Analysis
Western Europe
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q112
Finland

Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Mobile ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector – Monthly Mobile ARPU (EUR) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed-Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Finland Mobile Market, Q110-Q311 ('000)
Table: Finland Subscriber Net Additions, Q110-Q311 ('000)
ARPU
3G Services
4G Services
Mobile Network Investment
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Finland Mobile Market Overview
Table: TeliaSonera Mobile
Table: Elisa Mobile
Table: DNA
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On
Country Outlook
Table: Finland Mobile Value-Added Services Traffic H208-H111
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services
Fixed Line
Market Value
Internet
Table: Growth Of Fixed Broadband Market By Type Of Connection, 2008-2011 (‘000)
Other Developments
FTTH
IPTV
WiMAX
Wireline Contract Wins
Table: Wireline Contract Wins
Regulatory Environment
Overview
Table: Finland: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Legislation
Interconnection And Access
Recent Developments
Wholesale Broadband Pricing

Competitor Analysis
Market Overview
Key Players
Table: Key Players: Finland Telecoms Sector

Company Monitor
Security and Machines - Gemalto Product Portfolio Ready For The Future
Table: Recent Contracts, Gemalto

Company Profiles
TeliaSonera Finland
Elisa Corporation
DNA
Finnet Group

Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview Internet
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources

- DNA
- Elisa Corporation
- Finnet Group
- TeliaSonera Finland

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