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Germany Power Report
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 60
Business Monitor International's Germany Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's power industry.
BMI View:
Germany stands at the crossroads of a new energy future. No path is without issues, as finding a suitable and rapid replacement for nuclear power will not prove easy. An early commitment to clean coal technology might be the most rational approach, given that it could ease the burden of rising gas imports. However, there have already been setbacks. Germany is currently a leader in renewables, but scaling up the various technologies to replace nuclear power is a real challenge.
Germany's decision to permanently suspend operations at the seven nuclear reactors it mothballed in the immediate aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident, and to reinstate a policy to phase-out nuclear power by 2022, will have a major impact on the country's electricity mix and power sector. With the fate of nuclear power sealed, BMI believes that gas-fuelled power generation and renewables will see the strongest and most consistent growth.
Key trends and recent developments in the German electricity market include:
- Between 2011 and 2021, Germany’s overall power generation is expected to decrease by an annual average of 0.74%, ending the period at almost 632TWh. Key trends within the development of German power generation are a forecast average annual decline of 10.4% in nuclear energy, offset partly by an 6.1% rise in the use of gas-fired power and 7.5% growth in renewables-based generation. Coal-fired generation should fall steadily during the forecast period, although the trend is uncertain given the nuclear decision.
- Following an estimated 3.1% increase in 2011 real GDP, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 2.2% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to fall from the current level of 82.2mn to 80.9mn during the same period, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 552TWh to 580TWh by 2016, rising further to 608TWh by 2021. During the 2011-2016 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 1.00%, but will slow later in the decade to an average of 0.95% in 2016- 2021.
- Thanks partly to the forecast modest rise in net generation, the growth of which lags underlying demand, Germany’s historic power supply surplus is set to become a shortfall thanks to the nuclear closure programme. A gradual near-term decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from around 5.1% will help support the market. The theoretical net import requirement by 2016 is put at 6.5TWh, which could increase to 8.8Twh by 2021 if non-nuclear capacity expansion accelerates as planned. There is considerable doubt over Germany’s ability to balance its power market and compensate for nuclear losses. It may be that substantially higher net imports are required over the medium term.
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