South Africa Food and Drink Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, January 2012, Pages: 92
South Africa is an established regional powerhouse, standing out as an attractive destination among other emerging markets given the potential for using the country as a base from which to expand into the wider Sub-Saharan African region. Whether South Africa is able to reduce unemployment will have a large bearing on how well it does relative to its potential. We highlight that with the population likely to get richer over the next few years, we see per capita food consumption growing at a compound annual rate of 10.9% to 2016.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 per capita food consumption growth in local currency = +9.6%; forecast compound annual growth to 2016 = +10.4%.
- 2011 beer volume sales = +5.0%; forecast compound annual growth to 2016 = +3.4%.
- 2011 mass grocery retail sales = +10.6%; forecast compound annual growth to 2016 = +11.5%.
Key Company Developments Unilever Upping the Game in South Africa: Unilever has launched a new US$82mn food plant in South Africa, adding to the four plants it currently operates. South Africa is very important to Unilever’s Africa business, which has demonstrated strong growth over the past few years. It is believed to be worth more than US$7bn in sales per annum. The company has revealed its ambition to serve higher demand for Knorr, Robertson’s, Knorrox, Aromat and Rajah branded products in South Africa and across the African continent.
Walmart Era Begins: Walmart’s acquisition of South African general merchandise retailer Massmart, which was finally completed in summer 2011 for US$2.4bn (a 51% stake buy that allowed Massmart to retain its Johannesburg listing), is going to have a major bearing on South Africa’s food retailing industry over the next few years. Even though Massmart is very much a peripheral part of the food retail scene, with most of its business focused on areas like electronics, Walmart has made it clear that it is going to focus largely on food retailing in South Africa. It is expected to launch at least seven of Massmart’s Cambridge bannered food stores over the next few months to get the ball rolling.
Key Risks To Outlook Food Price Inflation: Consumer confidence could take a hit if the eurozone debt crisis escalates further, prompting a tightening of purse strings. Similarly, a weakening of the domestic housing market (from its already subdued state) could provoke some belt-tightening. Inflation is also a key risk: headline consumer price inflation is relatively contained, being close to 6.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), but food prices in particular could rise higher than we expect, taking a toll on consumer budgets.
Business Monitor International's South Africa Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's food and drink industry.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
South Africa Food Industry SWOT
South Africa Drink Industry SWOT
South Africa Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Agricultural Commodity Prices
Table: Core Views Q112
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Nigeria Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings – Q112
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings – Q112
Macroeconomic Outlook
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery
Prepared Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Meat
Table: Fish
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables
Table: Jams & Jellies
Oils & Fats
Table: Oils And Fats
Dairy
Table: Dairy
Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcohol Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Hot Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2009 And 2019
Trade
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Food
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Key Industry Trends And Developments
Unilever Upping Game In South Africa
Tiger Brands On An Acquisition Path
AVI Boosted By Food Business
Greater Food Price Inflation Remains A Risk
Market Overview
Agriculture
Organics
Production
Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
SABMiller Full-Year Earnings Beat Estimates
SABMiller May Be Lining Up An Acquisition
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Soft Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Woolworths Looking For Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa
Shoprite Plans 74 Supermarkets In FY12 As Retail Landscape Changes
Tesco Could Follow Walmart Into Africa
Walmart Era Begins, South Africa To Be Main Focus At Present
Who Stands To Lose The Most As Massmart Expands?
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Consumer Share Price Analysis
Key Players
Table: Key Players in South Africa’s Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players in South Africa’s Mass Grocery Retail Industry
Food
Illovo Sugar
Tiger Brands
Pioneer Foods
Drink
SABMiller
Distell
Mass Grocery Retail
Shoprite Group
Woolworths
Pick ‘n’ Pay
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
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© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
- Illovo Sugar
- Tiger Brands
- Pioneer Foods
- SABMiller
- Distell
- Shoprite Group
- Woolworths
- Pick ‘n’ Pay
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