Peru Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, January 2012, Pages: 67
BMI View: Peru's burgeoning oil and gas sector is undergoing a period of transition after the election of President Ollanta Humala in June 2011. Although the industry watched Humala's successful campaign with a certain degree of trepidation because of his reputation as a leftist in the mould of Hugo Chavez, his move to the centre is a positive sign for the future of the country's oil and gas sector. Moreover, we believe his political ties with local indigenous groups may lead to a breakthrough with regard to the Camisea gas controversy, which threatens to hamper the export of gas. There remains a risk that Humala will break to the left and implement policies that could undermine Peru's attractiveness as an investment destination, but we do not believe this is significant at this point in his young administration. As a result, we have retained our positive medium-term outlook for the sector.
- BMI forecasts that oil production will more than double over the coming five years, from a forecast 156,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to 350,000b/d in 2016, as investment in exploration and production (E&P) continues to rise. Over the same period strong economic growth is expected to see consumption rise from 194,000b/d to 222,000b/d. With the rate of production growth outpacing consumption, Peru will become a net exporter of oil in 2014.
- The country’s gas sector outlook is similarly bright. Gas production is forecast to jump from 7.5bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 13bcm in 2016. Gas consumption, meanwhile, is expected to grow modestly, rising from 5.95bcm in 2011 to nearly 8.2bcm by 2016. That will mean increasing volumes of gas available for export, and we forecast liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rising to 4.8bcm by 2016.
- Investment and exploration success will be needed to maintain oil export volumes. We forecast oil production peaking at 350,000b/d in 2016 before slipping back to 335,000b/d by 2021. Consumption, however, is expected to continue rising, hitting 245,000b/d. That will see the country’s net export capacity fall from its peak of 127,000b/d in 2016 to around 90,000b/d in 2020. Oil exploration in Peru is at an early stage and further success over the coming years could very well improve the long-term outlook.
- Peru performs well in BMI’s Business Environment Rating on the back of much-improved fiscal terms and a positive growth outlook. The country sits in third place in BMI’s composite Business Environment Rating (BER), which combines upstream and downstream scores. This reflects the country’s third place in our updated upstream Business Environment ratings, behind Brazil and Colombia. Its gas resources, largely privatised oil sector, licensing regime and competitive landscape work in the country’s favour. Peru sits in the middle of BMI’s downstream BER, reflecting its privatised refining segment and a relatively open but small market. It holds sixth place, behind Colombia, in the regional ratings.
Business Monitor International's Peru Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Peru's oil and gas industry.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Peru Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Latin America LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016
Peru Energy Market Overview
Table: Peru – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Peru Oil and Gas Forecasts and Historical Data, 2009-2016
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Peru
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Latin America Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Ratings
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players: Peru Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Peru Oil & Gas Report Q1 2
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Petróleos Del Perú (Petroperú)
Repsol YPF Peru
Sapet Peru/CNPC – Summary
Maple Gas – Summary
Pluspetrol – Summary
Hunt Oil – Summary
Perenco – Summary
SK Corporation – Summary
Petrobras – Summary
ConocoPhillips – Summary
Savia Perú – Summary
Talisman Energy – Summary
BPZ Energy/Shell – Summary
Others – Summary
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Latin America Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Latin America – Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Petróleos Del Perú (Petroperú)
- Repsol YPF Peru
- Sapet Peru/CNPC
- Maple Gas
- Pluspetrol
- Hunt Oil
- Perenco
- SK Corporation
- Petrobras
- ConocoPhillips
- Savia Perú
- Talisman Energy
- BPZ Energy/Shell
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