Brazil Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2012

Business Monitor International's Brazil Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 5-year Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Industry Forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazil pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Brazil Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Sector through BMIs reviews - and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Brazil Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi-national and national companies in Brazil.

BMI View: Brazil’s large population, combined with strong private consumption, bodes well for foreign drugmakers looking to capitalise on the growth trajectory of Latin America’s largest healthcare market. Ranked as the world’s eighth largest pharmaceutical market by size, BMI anticipate patented and branded drugs to account for a larger portion of per capita spending. While inflationary and spending pressures have pushed the government to promote generic substitution, patient and physician distrust has kept generic medicine sales subdued.

Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: BRL36.85bn (US$20.95bn) in 2010 to BRL39.94bn (US$25.60bn) in 2011; +8.4% in local currency and +22.2% in US dollars. Forecast unchanged from Q311.
- Healthcare: BRL314.76bn (US$178.98bn) in 2010 to BRL347.43bn (US$222.71bn) in 2011; +10.4% in local currency and +24.4% in US dollars. Forecast changed slightly from Q311.
- Medical devices: BRL6.62bn (US$3.76bn) in 2010 to BRL7.30bn (US$4.68bn) in 2011; +10.3% in local currency and +24.3% in US dollars. Forecast unchanged from Q311.

Business Environment Rating: BMI’s average Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Business Environment Rating (BER) for the 17 Americas markets has improved from 49.0 out of the maximum 100 points to 50.4 in Q112. Brazil’s composite pharmaceutical rating has dropped to 62.8 – a 0.8% quarter-on-quarter change – although the country remains fourth in the regional matrix.

Key Trends And Developments
- In November 2011, President Dilma Rousseff said the government plans to launch a federal home healthcare programme for patients undergoing medical treatment but not necessarily requiring hospitalisation. Although similar home care programs are already offered in some regions in Brazil, Rousseff’s plan aims to help the country’s public hospitals and infirmaries reduce mounting backlogs and alleviate budget pressures.
- In October 2011, BMI reported that a shortage of the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) benznidazole would make thousands of people across Brazil susceptible to an outbreak of Chagas disease. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) blamed the Brazilian government for failing to ensure it had sufficient stocks of the chemical. The shortage emerged following the transfer of responsibility to produce the API used by Lafepe to Nortec Química. Nortec Química has yet to receive the necessary manufacturing approvals or regulatory clearances required to proceed with production. While both parties are blaming each other for the shortage, BMI notes that global stocks for the treatment have dropped to dangerously low levels.

BMI Economic View: Brazil is experiencing a pronounced slowdown in economic activity, which BMI believe will see real GDP growth drop to 3.8% in 2011, down from BMIs previous forecast of 4.5%. However, while consensus forecasts are being downgraded, in their view the medium-term story is still constructive. Once the current bout of negativity has run its course, BMI believe Brazil’s diverse commodity mix, the authorities’ growth bias and the many infrastructure projects in the pipeline will see growth significantly outperform that of developed states in 2012, in line with BMIs above-consensus 4.8% real GDP projection. Too much emphasis on accommodative monetary and fiscal policy, however, would likely exacerbate domestic economic distortions, meaning bad news for the country’s long-term growth trajectory.

BMI Political View: While the turbulent days of hyperinflation, endemic financial market volatility and poor investor confidence levels may be a thing of the past, BMI believe that future administrations in Brazil will carry the burden of higher voter expectations and frequent comparisons with the seemingly untouchable image of Lula, who was president from 2003 to 2010. BMI therefore expect immense pressure on any future president to live up to expectations over the coming decade. In BMIs view, the growing need for reform and tackling many unaddressed policy issues in Brazil could lead to significant polarisation of the electorate. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
Brazil Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Brazil Political SWOT
Brazil Economic SWOT
Brazil Business Environment SWOT

Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Americas Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q112
Brazil – Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Environment
Counterfeits
Compulsory Licensing
Pricing Regime
Reimbursement Regime
Tax Burden On Pharmaceuticals
OTC Regulations
Advertising
Other Regulatory Developments

Industry Developments
Epidemiology
Healthcare Sector
Healthcare Sector Funding

Research And Development
Biotechnology
Clinical Trials
Medical Device Market
Major Players In The Medical Devices Industry
Medical Device Distribution

Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2007-2016
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Healthcare Expenditure, 2007-2016

Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Brazil Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales, 2007-2016
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2007-2016
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2007-2016
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2007-2016

Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2007-2016
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Devices Sales, 2007-2016
Other Healthcare Data

Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Competitive Landscape
Pharmaceutical Industry
Table: Top 15 Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Companies In Brazil By Revenue, 2010
PROFARMA Initiative
Innovative Drugmakers
Innovative Drugmakers – Recent Developments
Generic Drugmakers
OTC Sector

Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
Recent Pharmaceutical Retail Sector Developments

Company Monitor
Aché/Biosintética
EMS Sigma
Eurofarma
Medley
Cristália
Sanofi
Pfizer
Merck & Co
Novartis
GlaxoSmithKline
Roche
Merck KGaA
Nycomed/Altana
Novo Nordisk
Glossary

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources

- Aché/Biosintética
- EMS Sigma
- Eurofarma
- Medley
- Cristália
- Sanofi
- Pfizer
- Merck & Co
- Novartis
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Roche
- Merck KGaA
- Nycomed/Altana
- Novo Nordisk