Cambodia Power Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, January 2012, Pages: 48
Business Monitor International's Cambodia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Cambodia's power industry.
- Use BMI’s independent 10-year industry forecast on Cambodia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this strategic power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Cambodia's power sector through our reviews - and major deals, projects and investments in Cambodia.
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BMI View: The major players in Asian power supply are clamouring to invest in Cambodia, with the result being that huge expansion of capacity can be expected from around 2015 onwards, as hydro-, gasand coal-based schemes are brought into play. This will leave the country with plentiful spare generation, even if there are several years of 8-10% annual average demand growth. Neighbouring Vietnam, which will finance a number of power projects, plans to make use of Cambodia’s export capability.
Hydropower expansion is already underway and there is a long queue of potential projects with strong regional backing. Several are set to proceed, with a surge in hydro-based supply likely from around 2016. Domestic gas resources could contribute additional capacity, while the use of renewables is set to rise rapidly from a low base. New coal-fired stations are also in the planning stage, with Cambodia keeping a long-term eye on the possible use of nuclear energy.
Key trends and recent developments in the Cambodian electricity market include:
- During the period 2011-2016, Cambodia’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 42.0%, reaching 7.4TWh. Driving this growth is a planned new gas-fired scheme that should enter service during the forecast period. Hydroelectric generation growth is set to average 19.2% per annum, with non-hydro renewables raising their annual contribution by more than 16.3% up to 2016.
- In 2010-2019, some 2GW of power generating capacity is planned to be added to the network and new transmission and distribution infrastructure is to be built. This is a particularly ambitious programme and BMI is assuming that installed capacity of an estimated 643MW in 2011 will have risen to 1.13GW by 2016, rising further to 1.71GW by 2021.
- Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 4.50%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 6.90% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 14.3mn to 16.1mn during the period, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 1.49TWh to 2.27TWh in 2016, climbing further to 3.47TWh by 2021. During the period 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 8.41%, but accelerating later in the decade to an average 8.89% in 2016-2021.
- Thanks to the forecast rapid rise in net generation, growth of which significantly exceeds the underlying demand trend, Cambodia should develop a large supply surplus that provides the basis for sustainable power exports. A falling percentage of transmission and distribution losses from around 13.2% in 2011 will help strengthen the market.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Cambodia Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Slower Growth In Developed Markets To Accentuate Differences
Regional Industry Overview
Slower Growth In Developed Markets To Accentuate Differences
Nuclear Power In Asia
Industry Forecast Scenario
Cambodia Snapshot (Macro)
Cambodia: Economic and Demographic Data
Cambodia: Power Sector
Cambodia Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
Table: Cambodia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: Cambodia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: Cambodia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Table: Cambodia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Electricity Consumption
Table: Cambodia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Table: Cambodia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Cambodia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: Cambodia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: Cambodia Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: Cambodia Trade Data And Forecasts
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation and Competition
Pricing
Key Projects Database
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Energy And Utilities
Business Environment
Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Cambodia Power Rating
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology and Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources
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