Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 62
Business Monitor International's Kuwait Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kuwait's oil and gas industry.
BMI View:
Kuwait - one of OPEC’s key oil producers – will experience a relatively slow and steady rise in output. BMI sees Kuwait producing around 3.5mn b/d by 2021, although a substantial rise in oil consumption will reduce oil availability for the export market. BMI sees a faster increase in gas production in the second half of the coming decade, with output exceeding 20bcm by 2021. Kuwait will continue to remain a net gas importer and refined products exporter.
BMI highlights these trends and developments in Kuwait’s oil and gas sector:
- BMI sees Kuwaiti oil production rising from 2.5mn b/d in 2011 to 3mn b/d by 2017, and then to 3.5mn b/d by 2021.
- The advance of Project Kuwait - an ambitious scheme to enable IOC upstream investment - is critical to boosting oil production, given the mature nature of the giant Burgan field.
- Regulatory approval of the long-delayed al-Zour refinery and the Clean Fuels Project will allow Kuwait to significantly boost both production and exports of refined products, including lowsulphur diesel and Euro-4 gasoline.
- Significant non-associated gas in the Jurassic fields in Kuwait’s north must be monetised in order to lessen dependence on gas imports, which BMI sees continuing through to 2021. LNG imports could be supplemented by the re-activation of pipeline imports from Iraq (suspended since 1990).
- Kuwaiti gas production is expected to rise from nearly 14bcm in 2011 to over 20bcm by 2021, with imports nearly doubling over the same period from an estimated 4.4bcm in 2011 to over 8.6bcm at the end of our forecast period.
Kuwait’s dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Our assumptions of a slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. BMI assumes OPEC basket oil prices to fall from US$107.52 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$99.38/bbl in 2012, thus creating a downside risk for Kuwait’s macroeconomic outlook.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Kuwait Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Oil Supply And Demand
Table : Middle East Region Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2008-2016
Table : Middle East Region Oil Production, (000b/d) 2008-2016
Oil: Downstream
Table : Middle East Region Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2008-2016
Gas Supply And Demand
Table : Middle East Region Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2008-2016
Table : Middle East Region Gas Production, (bcm) 2008-2016
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Middle East Net LNG Exports (bcm)
Kuwait Energy Market Overview
Table: Kuwait – Upstream Project Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Kuwait Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Kuwait
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Gas Booster Stations
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Middle East Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Kuwaiti Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Player
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC)
Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) Chevron
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary
Total – Summary
Oula Fuel Marketing Company – Summary
Soor Fuel Marketing Company – Summary
Kuwait Energy – Summary
Others – Summary
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table : Middle East Region Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Oil Supply
Table : Middle East Region Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Refining Capacity
Table : Middle East Region Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Gas Demand
Table : Middle East Region Gas Consumption (bcm), 2014-2021
Regional Gas Supply
Table : Middle East Region Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Chevron
- Kuwait Energy
- Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC)
- Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC)
- Oula Fuel Marketing Company
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Soor Fuel Marketing Company
- Total
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