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Mexico Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 68
Business Monitor International's Mexico Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's oil and gas industry.
Mexico is expected to slow the rate of production decline that has plagued its vital oil sector over the short term, but that the downward trend will persist without new discoveries or further reform – with the country potentially becoming a net oil importer by the end of the decade. The Calderon administration has had some success in pushing through liberalisation measures but has not gone far enough. With the favoured candidate in the upcoming 2012 elections, Enrique Peña Nieto, advocating further reform, the elections could prove a crucial turning point for the sector.
- BMI forecasts oil and liquids production will fall slightly from 2.95mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 to 2.94mn b/d 2011. BMI had predicted a small increase in production, but H211 output has disappointed. Oil and liquids will continue to decline, falling to about 2.65mn b/d in 2016, a fall of about 10% on levels in 2011. Oil consumption over the same period is expected to rise at a moderate rate, reaching 2.38mn b/d by 2016, implying net exports of under 300,000b/d.
- Gas output is forecast to remain essentially flat over the coming years. Gas production is forecast to expand from 48.7bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010 to 49bcm in 2016. However, this will do little to reduce the country’s import requirement as consumption is forecast to rise rapidly from 61.7bcm in 2010 to 79bcm in 2016, implying an import requirement of almost 30bcm by 2016, double the 2010 import requirement.
- The long-term forecast for Mexico’s oil sector is dire. Oil production is expected to continue on its downward spiral, falling to under 2.5mn b/d in 2018 before reaching 2.23mn b/d in 2021. Meanwhile, a healthy economic growth outlook is expected to boost consumption rise by between 1-2% per year. That trend is forecast to see consumption exceed production for the first time in 2019, with an implied net import requirement of nearly 300,000b/d by 2021.
- This would mark a dramatic turnaround for the country considering that exports peaked at 1.8mn b/d in 2003 and Mexico was exporting more than 1mn b/d as recently as 2008. There is still plenty of time for Mexico to alter this long-term trend, but without more urgency in oil sector reform and new exploration efforts aimed at tapping deepwater Gulf of Mexico (GoM) reserves the country faces the loss of crucial oil export revenues.
-Unless the government introduces a radical shift in energy policy, BMI expects state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to retain full responsibility for oil production, with limited international oil company (IOC) involvement.
Mexico holds seventh place, behind Venezuela, in BMI’s Business Environment Ratings (BERs), which combine upstream and downstream scores. Despite being one of the region’s largest oil producers, the country now sits in ninth place in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. It lags well behind Bolivia and Ecuador and is unlikely to move up the league table over the short term.
Although the absolute resource base may be large, the output growth outlook is poor, reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) are low, state ownership of oil assets is absolute and country risk is relatively high. Mexico ranks fourth in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its high levels of oil and gas consumption, refining capacity and moderate country risk, plus low levels of projected oil and gas demand growth. Colombia is just one point behind Mexico and could mount a near-term challenge.
BMI Industry View
Mexico Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Latin America LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016
Mexico Energy Market Overview
Table: Mexico – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Table: Mexico Oil and Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Table: Refineries In Mexico
Oil Storage Facilities
Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Latin America Region
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Key Energy Player
Licensing and Regulation
International Energy Relations
Table: Upstream Player
Table: Downstream Player
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex)
Repsol YPF Mexico
Chevron – Summary
Petróleo Brasileiro – Summary
Total – Summary
Sinopec – Summary
Others – Summary
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Latin America Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Latin America – Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Petróleo Brasileiro
- Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex)
- Repsol YPF Mexico
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