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Slovenia Telecommunications Report 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 88
Business Monitor International's Slovenia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's telecommunications industry.
BMI's annual update for 2012 contains revised and extended forecasts that predict how the country’s fixedline, internet, broadband and mobile telephony sectors will develop through to the end of 2016. Its new forecasts reflect the latest data published by Slovenia’s regulator, the Post and Electronic Communications Agency of the Republic of Slovenia (APEK), as well the country’s fixed-line incumbent operator Telekom Slovenije, and its two leading mobile operators, Mobitel (the mobile business of Telekom Slovenije) and Si.mobil, which is wholly owned by Telekom Austria.
In the first nine months of 2011, Slovenia’s mobile market grew by just 1.0%, with the number of mobile customers surpassing 2.14mn in September. By the end of 2011, BMI estimates there were 2.148mn mobile subscribers in Slovenia, representing a growth of 1.2% over the year and mobile penetration rate of 105.5%. Moderate mobile market growth is anticipated over the next few years, underpinned by, among other things, the continued growth of Slovenia’s population. By the end of its newly extended forecast period in 2016, BMI expects a total market of around 2.245mn mobile users. This would give Slovenia a mobile penetration rate of just over 109%.
Recent months have seen continued efforts by the Slovenian mobile operators to expand the reach and transmission speeds of their 3G networks. All three operators have been deploying HSDPA services across their 3G networks, while simultaneously preparing for the introduction of 4G mobile services based on LTE technology. Mobile market leader Mobitel, which was merged with parent company Telekom Slovenije on July 1 2011, revealed that it was testing LTE mobile broadband technology in June 2011. BMI’s newly extended 3G subscriber forecast for Slovenia anticipates an annual average growth rate of 12.5% over the five years to 2016, predicting almost 1.6mn 3G customers at the end of its forecast, equivalent to over 71% of the total mobile user base.
In addition to BMI's mobile and 3G subscriber forecasts, this quarter sees the introduction of a new set of forecasts for mobile ARPU levels in Slovenia. Examined as a market average, BMI calculates that the mobile ARPU rate for Slovenia increased by 6.9% in 2011 to reach EUR21.7 (US$28.5). Its calculations are based on data and reports published by Telekom Austria and Telekom Slovenije for the first three quarters of 2011. The ARPU growth was underpinned by an increasing number of customers using mobile internet, data and video services, supporting by an uptick in smartphone usage.
Slovenia’s fixed-line sector shrank by an estimated 1.9% in 2011, with a decline in the number of traditional fixed voice connections only partially being replaced by a growing number of VoIP lines. BMI expects this trend to continue for the duration of BMI's forecast. Meanwhile, the broadband subscriber base grew by 3.8% in 2011, with much of the new growth coming from cable-based services and those based on optical fibre (FTTH). BMI believes that the regulatory decision to compel Telekom Slovenije to give rival operators wholesale shared and fully unbundled access to its fibre-optic last-mile network should provide the broadband market with a major growth stimulus.
Slovenia sits in eighth position in BMI’s latest set of Business Environment Ratings for the Central and East European telecoms sectors. The country scores below the regional average in the Industry Rewards category but above the average in the other three categories surveyed by BMI. In the Country Risk category, Slovenia has the second-highest score in the region, beaten only by Estonia.
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