Pharmaceutical Supply Chain in the US - Advances in RFID and ePedigree Systems to Limit Drug Counterfeits
- Published: June 2012
- Region: United States
Business Monitor International's USA Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the US pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: Healthcare spending in the US will continue to account for a disproportionately large percentage of its GDP. Citizens of the world's largest economy are accustomed to regular health checkups, access to the latest diagnostics and therapeutics, choice of provider and outlet, insurance premium contributions from employers, a culture of end-of-life prolongation and extensive regulation. While this is not necessarily the 'best' form of healthcare, it is certainly the most expensive, both for individuals and the state.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: US$327.0bn in 2010 to US$331.3bn in 2011; +1.3% growth in local currency terms. BMIs forecast is unchanged from Q411.
- Healthcare: US$2,346bn in 2010 to US$2,449bn in 2011; 4.4% growth in local currency terms. BMIs forecast is unchanged from Q411.
- Medical devices:US$127.6bn in 2010 to US$133.0bn in 2011; 4.2% growth in local currency terms. BMIs forecast is unchanged from Q411.
Business Environment Rating: The US Pharmaceutical Business Environment Rating score increased from 77.9 out of 100 in Q411 to 79.1 in Q112, reinforcing the country's status as the most attractive pharmaceutical market globally. The rise was due to an upgrade in their assessment of the country's healthcare policy and reimbursement system.
Key Trends & Developments
In September 2011, BMI maintained its long-term US healthcare expenditure forecast despite the proposed cuts to Medicare and Medicaid. BMI expect spending on medical services to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.77% over the next decade. While this is slightly below the 2005-10 CAGR of 4.84%, it is still a very steep trajectory for a developed economy. The government will invariably act again to constrain spending on medical services, but given the underlying fundamentals - an ageing population, free pricing for pharmaceuticals and litigious society that supports high insurance costs - any significant reduction in the current growth projection is unlikely. A key risk to this outlook is another economic downturn.
BMI Economic View: Their US growth forecast for 2011 remains unchanged at 1.6%, but they have downgraded the 2012 outlook to 1.6% from 2.4%. Incoming data have been poor, but not recessionary. BMI see consumer activity continuing to grow at a weak pace, though business investment should continue to outperform. There are also major downside risks to the 2012 and 2013 outlook, with external concerns over the health of the European and Chinese economies, and domestic concerns over the expiry of tax cuts and the reduction in government spending.
BMI Political View: The US's poor economic outlook makes it increasingly unlikely that President Barack Obama will be elected to a second term in office. Economic growth remains sluggish at best, consumer confidence is at 30-year lows, and the labour market is very weak. Historically, unemployment rates well above 7.0% (the rate is currently above 9.0% and projected to stay there until mid-2012) have spelled failed re-election bids for past presidents, including for Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. However, BMI maintain Obama's re-election as their core scenario until it becomes clear which Republican Party candidate will oppose him.
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US Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
US Political SWOT
US Economic SWOT
US Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Americas – Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q112
US - Market Summary
Innovative Drug Regulations
Generic Drug Regulations
OTC Medicine Regulations
Medical Device Regulations
Intellectual Property (IP) Regulations
Pricing & Reimbursement Environment
Research and Development Sector
Contract/Clinical Research Organisations
Medical Device Industry
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2007-2016
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Healthcare Expenditure, 2007-2016
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Germany – Pharmaceutical Prescription Drug Sales, Historical Data and Forecast, 2007-2016
Table: Top 10 Therapeutic Classes By Sales (US$bn)
Table: Top 10 Therapeutic Classes By Dispensed Prescriptions (mn)
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2007-2016
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2007-2016
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2007-2016
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Device Sales, 2007-2016
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2008-2016
Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario
Table: Top 10 Companies By US Prescription Sales (US$bn)
Table: Top 10 Drugs By US Sales (US$bn)
Research-Based Industry – Key Quarterly Developments
Table: Top 10 Companies By US Dispensed Prescriptions (mn)
Drug Distribution Sector
Pharmacy Retail Sector
Table: US Dispensed Prescription Drug Distribution By Channel Distribution Volume (mn)
Leading Local Companies
Merck & Co
Leading Foreign Companies
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
- Merck & Co
- Eli Lilly
- Watson Pharmaceuticals
- Leading Foreign Companies
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)