CPM Gold Long-Term Outlook
CPM Group, January 2012
A comprehensive study of the global gold market including projections through 2021 of gold supply by mine, demand, and prices. New to this year's report is a special section on China's gold market.
Description:
The Gold Long-Term Outlook is a comprehensive study of the global gold market including projections through 2021 of gold supply by mine, demand, and prices. New this year is a special section on China's gold market, including ten-year projections for supply and demand.
Reasons to Own the Report:
- Mining companies utilize CPM Group?s independent ten-year price projections for strategic planning, acquisition analysis, budgeting purposes, and preparation of technical reports.
- nstitutional investors supplement their internal research with the comprehensive analysis, conclusions, and projections of this report. The report also serves as an authoritative reference guide for gold market statistics.
- CPM Group's analysis brings an independent, sober, and comprehensive perspective.
- Independent and accurate production and production cost data and analysis for mines accounting for the majority of global gold production; comprehensive analysis of Chinese, Russian, and South African gold production, among other gold producing countries globally.
- Detailed figures of central bank gold holdings and projected purchases as well as fact-based insight into International Monetary Fund gold sales.
Executive Summary
Gold Base Case (Main) Scenario
Chart: Real and Nominal Gold Prices, Main Scenario
Chart: Real Gold Prices and Year-on-Year Changes in Prices
Chart: Gold Supply and Demand, Main Scenario
Chart: Net Additions/Reductions to Official Gold Holdings and Private Gold Investment
Table: Gold Supply, Demand, and Prices, Scenario 1
Economic Outlook
Chart: Real Gross Domestic Product Projections
Chart: Gross U.S. Government Debt and Gross Debt as a Percentage of GDP
Chart: Gross Government Debt
Chart: U.S. Personal Savings Rate
Chart: EU-17 Personal Savings Rate
Chart: U.S. Real Personal Income
Chart: U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure
Chart: Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
Chart: Total Construction Spending
Chart: Percentage of Domestic Exports to Europe
Chart: Exports to Gross Domestic Product
Investment Demand
Chart: Investment Demand's Effect on Gold Prices
Table: Central Bank Target Rate and Inflation
Chart: Annual Average Gold Returns in Different Real Interest Rate Environments
Table: Long-Term Correlations
Chart: Net Additions to Gold Exchange Traded Product Holdings
Chart: Net Additions to Combined Gold ETF Holdings as a Percentage of Total Investment Demand
Table: Exchange Traded Funds' Physical Gold Holdings
Chart: Exchange Traded Funds' Physical Gold Holdings
Chart: Gross Long and Short Positions of Non-Commercial Market Participants
Chart: Net Positions of Large Non-Commercials and Gold Prices
Chart: Global Financial Assets
Chart: Gold as a Percentage of Global Financial Assets
Chart: Monthly U.S. Mint Gold Coin Sales
Official Transactions
Chart: Official Transactions, Main Scenario
Chart: Official Sector Changes in Gold Holdings
Chart: Official Sector Gold Reserve Levels
Chart: Changes in Central Bank Gold Reserves in 2011
Chart: Composition of Global Monetary Reserves
Table: Composition of Global Monetary Reserves
Chart: Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar
Chart: Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves
Chart: U.S. Federal Debt as Percentage of GDP and Marginal Income Tax Rate
Chart: Central Bank Gold Holdings in Developed and Developing Countries…
Chart: Official Foreign Exchange Reserves
Chart: Major Developing Markets–Central Bank Gold Holdings and Ratio of Gold to Total Reserves
Chart: Gross Government Debt and Official Gold Reserves
Chart: Gold held at the New York Federal Reserve Bank
Chart: Gross Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP
Supply
Chart: Total Gold Supply, Projected through 2021
Chart: Total World Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: Country Contribution to Gross Gold Mine Production Capacity Additions, 2011 – 2021
Table: Production Capacity Gross Additions from New Projects
Chart: Estimated Annual Gold Mine Production Capacity Gross Additions
Chart: Gold 2010, World Mine Production by Producer – Location on Map
Chart: Estimated Worldwide Exploration Spending
Chart: The Price of Gold and Cash Operating Costs of Production
Chart: Gold Mine Cash Costs in the Second Quarters of 2010 and 2011
Table: Gold Production and Cash Costs by Major Gold Producing Country
Chart: Gold Reserves and Reserve Base
Chart: World Gold Reserves Base in 1980 and 2008
Chart: World Gold Reserves in 1987 and 2010
Table: Gold Reserves, through 2010
Table: Gold Reserves Base, through 2008
Chart: Canadian Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: United States Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: Mexican Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: Peruvian Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: Argentinean Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: Brazilian Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: Chilean Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: Annual Ore Milled and Average Ore Grade at South African Mines
Table: South Africa – Average Number of Employees and Total Earnings by Mining Industry
Chart: South Africa – Number of Fatalities
Table: Fatalities for Different Commodities in South Africa
Chart: South African Energy Peak Demand and Capacity
Table: Planned Capacity Expansion at Eskom
Chart: Average Gold Price and Weighted Average South Africa Gold Cash Cost 2001 – 2010
Chart: Exchange Rate: South African Rand/U.S. Dollar
Chart: South African Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: Australian Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: Papua New Guinea Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: Indonesian Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Chart: Transitional Economy Exports to Market Economies
Chart: Russian Gold Mine Production, Projected through 2021
Table: Near-term Mine Development Projects, as of November 2011
Chart: Secondary Gold Supply, Projected through 2021
Chart: Regional Sources of Gold Scrap, 1980 and 2010
Fabrication Demand
Chart: Total Gold Fabrication Demand by Use, Projected through 2021
Chart: End-Use Sources of Gold Fabrication Demand, 2010
Table: Gold Fabrication Demand by Country & Region
China
Chart: Spread Held by Shanghai Spot Gold Prices to London Gold Prices
Chart: Chinese RMB Exchange Rate
Chart: Chinese Gold Mine Production, Forecast Through 2021
Table: Mine Development Projects, Projected Through 2021
Chart: Chinese Primary and Byproduct Mine Gold Output, Projected Through September 2011
Chart: Percentage of Chinese Gold Output from Primary and Byproduct Mines, 2010
Chart: Chinese Gold Secondary Supply, Forecast Through 2021
Chart: Chinese Gold Fabrication Demand, Forecast Through 2021
Chart: Chinese Gold and Silver Jewelry Sales
Chart: Chinese Gold Jewelry Demand and Gold Prices
Table: Chinese Long Term Gold Supply and Demand
Alternative Scenarios
Chart: Real Gold Prices, Three Scenarios, Projected through 2021
Table: Real Gold Prices, Three Scenarios, Projected through 2021
Chart: Gold Investment Demand, Three Scenarios, Projected through 2021
Chart: Gold Total Supply, Three Scenarios, Projected through 2021
Chart: Gold Total Fabrication Demand, Three Scenarios, Projected through 2021
Chart: Real and Nominal Gold Prices, Scenario 2, Projected through 2021
Chart: Gold Supply and Demand, Scenario 2, Projected through 2021
Table: Gold Supply, Demand, and Prices - Scenario 2, 30% Probability on the Low End
Chart: Real and Nominal Gold Prices, Scenario 3, Projected through 2021
Chart: Gold Supply and Demand, Scenario 3, Projected through 2021
Table: Gold Supply, Demand, and Prices - Scenario 3, 30% Probability on the High End
Appendix
Chart: The Price of Gold
Table: Gold Market Summary
Table: Trading Volumes of Gold at the Five Major Commodities Exchanges
Table: Gold Futures Launches
Chart: LBMA – Ounces of Gold Transferred Per Day
Chart: LBMA – Value of Daily Average Gold Volumes Transferred
Chart: LBMA – Daily Average Number of Transfers
Table: LBMA Market Clearing Turnover for Gold
Chart: LBMA – Average Trade Size per Day
Table: The Gold Market in 1997 – 2010
Chart: Investment Demand's Share of the Gold Market
Chart: Investment Demand and Gold Prices
Chart: Gold Prices and the XAU
Chart: Gold Prices and U.S. T-Bonds
Chart: Gold Prices and U.S. Inflation
Chart: Gold Prices and the DJIA
Chart: Gold Prices and the S&P 500
Chart: CRB Index vs. Gold Prices
Table: Comparative Investments
Chart: Gold Prices and the FT Gold Mine Index
Table: Comparative Portfolios
Chart: U.S. Mint Gold Coin Sales
Table: U.S. Mint Gold Coin Sales
Table: Official Gold Coin Fabrication
Table: World Gold Investment
Chart: Cumulative World Production and Distribution
Chart: Trading Volume in the Futures Market
Chart: Open Interest in the Futures Market
Chart: Comex Monthly Trading Volume
Chart: Comex Monthly Open Interest
Chart: Tocom Monthly Trading Volume
Chart: Tocom Monthly Open Interest
Chart: Comex Options Trading Volume – Puts and Calls
Table: Exchange Activity – Trading Volume
Table: Exchange Activity – Open Interest
Table: Exchange Activity – Warehouse Stocks
Table: Comex Gold Futures Trading Volume
Table: Comex Gold Futures Open Interest
Table: Tocom Gold Futures Trading Volume
Table: Tocom Gold Futures Open Interest
Table: Comex Options Trading Volume
Table: Comex Options Open Interest
Table: Annual Comex Gold Options Activity
Chart: Exchange Traded Products' Physical Gold Holdings
Table: Exchange Traded Product Holdings
Chart: Oil, Gold, and the Consumer Price Index
Chart: Gold/Oil Price Ratio
Chart: Gold Price Volatility
Chart: Gold and the U.S. Dollar
Chart: High, Low, and Average Comex Gold Prices
Table: London Gold Prices
Chart: Total Gold Supply
Table: Major Market Economy Gold Producers
Table: Mine Production by Country
Table: Gold Production since 1800
Table: Secondary Supply
Chart: Official Transactions
Table: Changes in Central Bank Gold Reserves in 2011
Chart: Composition of Global Monetary Reserves
Chart: Official Sector Gold Reserve Levels
Chart: Gold as a Percent of Total Reserves
Chart: Central Bank Reserves Since 1920
Chart: Bank of Canada Reserves
Chart: Monthly Canadian Sales
Chart: U.S. as a Percent of Total Gold Reserves
Chart: Gold Held at the New York Federal Reserve Bank
Table: Reported Central Bank Reserves by Country and Region
Table: IMF Gold Sales
Table: IMF Gold Transactions, 1976 – 1980
Table: IMF Gold Restitution, 1977-1980
Table: IMF Gold Sales, Non-Competitive Bids, 1978-1979
Table: Official Gold Transactions
Chart: Total Gold Fabrication Demand by Use
Chart: World Gold Use per Unit of GDP
Chart: World Gold Use per Capita
Table: Fabrication Demand by Country and Region
Table: Annual Gold Use
Table: European Fabrication Demand
Table: French Fabrication Demand
Table: Swiss Fabrication Demand
Table: German Fabrication Demand
Table: United Kingdom Fabrication Demand
Table: Italian Fabrication Demand
Table: Spanish Fabrication Demand
Table: Greek Fabrication Demand
Table: Other European Fabrication Demand
Table: Japanese Fabrication Demand
Table: U.S. Fabrication Demand
Table: Indian Fabrication Demand
Table: Thai Fabrication Demand
Gold prices have risen for 11 years now to unprecedented levels. This has occurred in an environment of major economic and political uncertainties, which has caused investors globally to revisit the wisdom of holding gold as a financial asset and store of value. After more than a decade of sharply rising prices, the gold market is facing great uncertainties of its own. Understanding the issues related to gold supply, fabrication demand, official central bank transactions, and investment demand is further complicated by the fact that gold, because it is gold, is encumbered with more than 5,000 years of firmly held yet often inaccurate and false beliefs. Much of what is said and written about gold is simply wrong, but one of the glories of the gold market – the unregulated and secretive nature of it – allows for these misperceptions to persist and continue to be disseminated around the world.
These reports serve two purposes. First, they are designed to provide long-term projections for market trends and prices based on dispassionate and unbiased analyses of the many factors that determine gold prices. Second, they are written to give readers a good background understanding of the market's fundamental composition and dynamics.
These reports present the latest best available projections for supply, demand, and price both over the past several decades and centuries, and over the next decade. This information is critical to industries, governments, and investors if they are to make decisions informed by fact as opposed to suppositions. Some use these projections as guidelines and signposts of trends and developments that may emerge over the long run. Other groups use these projections in models, feasibility studies, and calculations related to specific investments and capital expansion plans. Others use them more as indicators of the momentum in the markets at present.
The second purpose of these reports is to provide basic market information and economic analysis. Some clients use these reports as part of their training programs for new executives, as basic primers on the structure and mechanics of the markets. CPM Group updates its long-term projections at least once a year. Clients often acquire this service annually, interested in the latest modifications.
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