Israel Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, January 2012, Pages: 54
Business Monitor International's Israel Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Israel's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Over the next decade, Israel is set to benefit from one of the Middle East’s most exciting hydrocarbon growth stories. While gas production is set to rocket, strong potential also exists for oil – both in the form of deep offshore reservoirs and a pilot scheme for oil shale, which could potentially unlock several billion barrels of reserves.
BMI highlight the following trends and developments in Israel’s oil and gas sector:
- BMI believes Israeli gas consumption declined slightly in 2011 owing to attacks on the gas import pipeline from Egypt. However, the start-up of production at offshore fields will significantly boost consumption, as Israeli energy demand becomes more reliant on gas. Consumption will rise from a little over 3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to over 20bcm by 2018.
- BMI forecast production to reach just under 30bcm by 2021, assuming the Leviathan field comes onstream by 2017.
- Israel will import small quantities of LNG in 2012 and 2013 to compensate for the decline in output from Mari-B and gas volumes from Noa. However, BMI see Israeli emerging as an liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter by 2017.
- Israeli oil consumption is set to decline substantially from a high of around 244,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2013 to under 210,000b/d by 2021. BMI do not expect a rise in Israel’s 220,000b/d refining capacity over the forecast period.
- Oil production is negligible, but the successful commercialisation of Leviathan’s oil or the pilot onshore shale oil project present long-term upside risks.
Israel’s dependence on imports of crude oil and refined products leads to high volatility in the country’s import costs. BMIs assumptions of slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. BMI assume OPEC basket oil prices to fall from US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$99.38/bbl in 2012, thus creating upside risk to the Israeli macroeconomic outlook.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Israel Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Oil Supply And Demand
Table : Middle East Region Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2008-2016
Table : Middle East Region Oil Production, (000b/d) 2008-2016
Oil: Downstream
Table : Middle East Region Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2008-2016
Gas Supply And Demand
Table : Middle East Region Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2008-2016
Table : Middle East Region Gas Production, (bcm) 2008-2016
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Middle East Net LNG Exports (bcm)
Israel Energy Market Overview
Table: Israel – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Israel Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Oil Pipelines
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Middle East Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Israeli Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
China
Egypt
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Noble Energy
Oil Refineries Ltd – Summary
Delek Group – Summary
Sonol – Summary
Paz – Summary
Zion Oil & Gas – Summary
Bontan Oil & Gas – Summary
ATP Oil & Gas – Summary
Others – Summary
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table : Middle East Region Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Oil Supply
Table : Middle East Region Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Refining Capacity
Table : Middle East Region Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Gas Demand
Table : Middle East Region Gas Consumption (bcm), 2014-2021
Regional Gas Supply
Table : Middle East Region Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Noble Energy
- Oil Refineries Ltd
- Delek Group
- Sonol
- Paz
- Zion Oil & Gas
- Bontan Oil & Gas
- ATP Oil & Gas
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