Nigeria Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 98
Business Monitor International's Nigeria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Nigeria's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q112 update on Nigeria’s telecommunications market is based on latest regulatory data from the Nigeria Communications Commission (NCC) and market data from the mobile market leader MTN Nigeria. It contains the latest five-year forecasts depicting the development of the country’s mobile, fixed-line telephony and internet markets as well as mobile ARPU forecast through to the end of 2016.
Nigeria’s mobile market grew by 3.3% in Q311 to reach 92.633mn subscribers, according to market data published by the telecoms regulator. This followed the first ever quarterly decline recorded in the previous quarter. As a result, mobile penetration stood at 57.1% at the end of September 2011, up from 55.2% at the end of 2010. As in recent quarters, the GSM segment accounted for Q311 growth as the regulator’s data showed continued subscriber losses in the CDMA segment. BMI believes the positive growth trend continued in Q411 as a result of promotional activities during the religious festivals to bring mobile penetration to around 58.4%. It expects robust growth in the mobile market over the next five years despite the expected disconnection of unregistered SIMs at the end of the SIM registration exercise and the implementation of number portability. By the end of 2016, BMI forecasts mobile subscriptions in Nigeria to reach 130mn, equivalent of a penetration rate of around 70.5%.
BMI notes that future subscriber growth in Nigeria’s mobile market will be by network expansion to underserved areas. BMI is, therefore, encouraged by network infrastructure investment plans announced by some of the country’s leading operators and the increasing take-up of tower sharing services, which is capable of accelerating operator’s network expansion plans. In January 2012, MTN announced plans to invest around US$1bn in 2012 to improve its network quality. The operator spent a similar amount in 2011 to increase its network capacity. Airtel said it spent more than NGN93bn (US$600mn) on the expansion of network capacity and improvement of quality of service (QoS) in 2011. The operator directed the investment towards technical engineering, power improvement, microwave replacement and site and fibre rollout projects. It also constructed more than 500 sites in the six months to December 2011 and plans to finish 1,000 more sites by March 2012. In November 2011, Etisalat announced plans to build about 2,000 base transceiver stations (BTS) by 2013. Etisalat had between 2,800 and 2,900 BTS in Nigeria by October 2011. As part of its strategy to boost its operations, the company plans to build 1,000 more base stations in 2012 and another 1,000 by 2013.
The fixed-line market continues to underperform with a further loss of about 52,596 subscribers during the three months to September 2011. This brought total fixed-line subscriptions to 828,797, down from more than 1mn at the end of December 2010. BMI expects subscriber losses to continue during its forecast period, although the rate of decline could slow down in the latter stages of the forecast. By the end of 2016, it forecasts a fixed-line penetration rate of 0.4%. The broadband market continues to experience strong growth following investments in mobile and fixed-data services. BMI expects this, along with increasing competition, to drive broadband penetration to 10.6% by the end of 2016.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Nigeria Mobile SWOT
Nigeria Fixed-Line And Broadband SWOT
Nigeria Political SWOT
Nigeria Economic SWOT
Nigeria Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Analysis
Sub-Saharan Africa
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q112 RRR Table
Nigeria
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts (NGN)
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Nigeria Mobile Market, June 2011
Table: Wireless Net Additions Market, Q211
Table: Nigeria CDMA Mobile Market, June 2011
3G
LTE (4G)
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Table: Major Players Leverage Footprint In VAS Development
Country Outlook
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Nigeria Mobile Market Overview
Table: MTN
Table: Globacom
Table: EMTS
Airtel (formerly Zain)*
Fixed Line
Table: Nigeria Fixed-Line Data 2010-2011
Internet
Table: Fixed-Line And Broadband Contract Wins And Developments
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Competition
Licensing
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players – Nigeria Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators’ Financial Indicators, 2004-2010
Company Monitor
Vendor Profile: Ericsson
Table: Ericsson: Net Sales By Division (SEKmn)
Table: Ericsson: Selected Contracts In Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2011
Company Profiles
NITEL
MTN
Airtel (formerly Zain)
Globacom
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Internet
Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Nigeria Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- NITEL
- MTN
- Airtel (formerly Zain)
- Globacom
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