CPM Electrolytic Manganese Long-Term Market Outlook
CPM Group, December 2011, Pages: 160
CPM Group’s 2011 Electrolytic Manganese Market Outlook is a 160-page study that provides an indepth analysis of global electrolytic manganese metal (EMM) supply, demand, and price trends, including projections for the next 10 years.
The report contains production statistics from 1991 through 2011, details on global capacity, demand projections by end-use, and information on substitution.
The prospects for the Chinese manganese market are highlighted throughout the report, including detailed production costs, select project and provincial-level supply figures, new development projects, mining regulation and trade policy changes, as well as key demand drivers. The prospects for the electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD) market also are analyzed in a separate section using global capacity and demand statistics, regional capacity figures, and multiple scenarios for demand growth over the next 10 years based on different adoption rates for electric vehicles.
The Electrolytic Manganese Market Outlook provides 10-year forecasts for supply, demand, and prices under a base case and two alternative scenarios.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MARKET OVERVIEW
Manganese Market Historic Manganese Metal Price Overview
SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK
PRICE FORECAST
SUPPLY
Global Manganese Reserves
Mine Production Fundamentals
Secondary Supplies
Electrolytic Manganese Metal
Chinese Manganese Metal Market
China’s Manganese Reserves
China Manganese Mine Market Structure
Chinese EMM Production Process
Chinese EMM Production
Recent Policy Initiatives
Cost of Chinese EMM Production
The Effects of a Yuan Appreciation on Production Costs
Rising Electricity Costs in China
Climbing Chinese Labor Costs
South African Manganese Metal Market
Rising Electricity Costs
Strengthening South African Rand
Other Supply
Japan
United States
Potential New Producers
Probable (Committed) Projects
Probable (Uncommitted) Projects
Possible (Uncommitted) Projects
Supply Forecast Methodology
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Global Economic Outlook China’s Economic Outlook
DEMAND
Demand Overview
Demand Trends
Recent Market Developments
Demand Forecasting Methodology
Demand Projections
Stainless Steel
Other Steels
Aluminum and Other Alloys Electronics
Other
EMD
Production Process
Types of Manganese
Dioxide Grades and Quality of EMD
EMD Supply
Battery Comparison
Switching Costs Contracts and Pricing in the U.S. EMD Market
Substitution Demand Outlook
Alternate Demand Scenarios
Risks to EMD Outlook
SUBSTITUTES
Other Manganese Products
Other Substitute Elements
Copper and Copper Alloys
Plastics
Titanium and Titanium Alloys
TRADE
China Trade Rest of World Trade
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
High Case Scenario
Low Case Scenario
APPENDIX
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
Executive Summary
Chart: Manganese Ore Use
Chart: Electrolytic Manganese Flake Prices (min 99.7% Mn)
Chart: Electrolytic Manganese Metal Production by Country
Chart: Global EMM End-Uses, 2011e
Chart: EMM Demand, Crude Steel Production, and 200-Series Steel Production Growth
Table: Electrolytic Manganese Metal End-Uses and Properties
Chart: Chinese Consumption of EMM per 1,000 People
Table: CPM Group Electrolytic Manganese Metal Projections
Chart: Base Case: Real Manganese Metal Prices and World Supply and Demand Balance
Table: Real Annual Manganese Flake Prices
Market Overview
Chart: Manganese Ore Use
Chart: Electrolytic Manganese Flake Prices (min 99.7% Mn)
Chart: China and EU EMM Prices
Chart: Monthly Prices for Manganese Ore and Select Manganese Products
Supply and Demand Outlook
Chart: Base Case: Real Manganese Metal Prices and World Supply and Demand Balance
Table: Base Case: Real Manganese Metal Prices and World Supply and Demand Balance Price Forecast
Table: Current Input Cost Comparison
Chart: Real and Nominal Manganese Flake Prices (min 99.7% Mn) Supply
Table: World Manganese Reserves and Reserve Base
Chart: World Manganese Reserves, 2010
Chart: World Manganese Reserve Base, 2008
Chart: Manganese Carbonate Ore Flow Chart
Chart: Manganese Oxide Ore Flow Chart
Chart: Chinese Manganese Exploration Expenditures
Table: Chinese Manganese Exploration Expenditures
Chart: Chinese Manganese Reserve Base by Province, 2009
Table: Chinese Manganese Reserves and Resources by Province
Table: The Scale of Manganese Mines by Reserves and Resources, 2008
Chart: Chinese EMM Production Capacity by Province, 2010
Chart: Chinese EMM Output by Province, 2010
Map: Major Manganese Producing Regions in China
Chart: EMM Output from Major Producing Regions in China, 2010
Table: Capacity and Output of Major Chinese EMM-Producing Regions
Table: Number of Manganese Mining Companies by Capacity, 2004 – 2009
Table: Chinese Imports of Manganese Ores by Country
Table: Chinese Manganese Ore Supply
Chart: Chinese Manganese Ore Supply
Chart: Chinese Manganese Alloys Production
Chart: Manganese Carbonate Concentrate Flow Chart
Table: Capacity and Output of Major Chinese EMM Producers
Table: Chinese EMM Supply and Demand
Chart: Chinese EMM Production Capacity and Output
Table: Chinese EMM and Alloys Production, Consumption, and Exports
Table: Near-Term Manganese Development and Expansion Projects
Chart: Chinese Manganese Alloys Consumption
Chart: Chinese Manganese Alloys Net Exports
Table: Chinese EMM Operating Cash cost and Total Cost Estimates, 2010
Table: Advantages and Disadvantages of EMM Production with Imported High Grade Oxide Ore
Chart: Components of Operating Cash Cost of Chinese EMM Production
Chart: CNY/USD Exchange Rate and Manganese Prices
Table: Average Price of Power Sold in Major Manganese Producing Provinces
Table: Electrolytic Manganese Metal Production by Country and Select Mine (1990 – 2010)
Chart: Electrolytic Manganese Metal Production, 2010
Chart: Electrolytic Manganese Metal Production, 2021p
Table: Electrolytic Manganese Metal Production by Country and Select Mine (2011p – 2021p)
Table: Near Term Electrolytic Manganese Development Projects
Economic Outlook
Chart: EMM Demand and World Gross Domestic Product
Chart: Percentage of Population Living in Urban Areas and Per Capita GDP
Chart: Real Gross Domestic Product
Chart: Chinese Consumption of EMM per 1,000 People
Chart: Total Investment in Urban and Rural China
Chart: Chinese Core Price Inflation
Chart: Cumulative New Loans
Table: History of Chinese Five-Year Plans
Table: China: 12
Chart: Indicative Manganese Contents Across Steel Products
Table: Steel Products, Manganese Content, Performance Requirements, and Selected Applications
Chart: Share of Specialty Steel as a Percentage of Crude Steel Production, 2010
Table: Chemical Composition of Select 3000 Series Aluminum Alloys
Chart: Aluminum Consumption and EMM Demand in Alloys
Chart: World Production of Electronic Equipment
Table: Alkaline and Zinc Carbon Battery Comparison
EMD
Table: Global Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide Demand and Capacity
Table: World EMD Production Capacity (Year-End)
Chart: World EMD Production Capacity, 2010
Table: Chinese EMD Production, Imports, and Exports
Table: Annual Production Capacity of Major EMD Producers China, 2010
Table: Near Term Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide Development Projects
Table: EMD Trade Data for Select Countries
Chart: Market Share in Terms of Revenue by Battery Type
Chart: Alkaline Battery Cost Structure
Table: Rechargeable Battery Types
Table: Chinese Battery Production
Chart: Global Electric Vehicle Sales
Table: Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide Market Overview
Chart: Base Case: Global EMD Demand
Table: Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide Demand Forecasts
Chart: High Case: Global EMD Demand Substitutes
Table: Manganese Options in Steel
Chart: Price Differentials Between Various Manganese Products
Chart: Market Share of Manganese Ore Use and 2010 Market Value Trade
Table: China’s Exports of EMM by Destination
Chart: Chinese Net Exports of Electrolytic Manganese Metal
Table: China’s Current Export/Import Taxes on Manganese
Table: Chinese Foreign Trade Policy Changes: Manganese
Table: Selected Global Policies on Manganese Trade Alternative Scenarios
Chart: High Case: Real Manganese Metal Prices and World Supply and Demand Balance
Table: High Case: Real Manganese Metal Prices and World Supply and Demand Balance
Chart: Low Case: Real Manganese Metal Prices and World Supply and Demand Balance
Table: Low Case: Real Manganese Metal Prices and World Supply and Demand Balance
Chart: Comparison of Real Manganese Flake Prices for Base Case and Alternative Scenarios
Table: Real Annual Manganese Flake Prices, Three Scenarios
Table: Real Annual Manganese Flake Prices, Three Scenarios
Appendix
Table: Real and Nominal Manganese Flake Prices, Annual
Table: Month-End Prices for Select Manganese Products
Chart: Month-End Prices for Select Manganese Products
Chart: Monthly Prices for Manganese Ore and Select Manganese Products
Chart: Annual Prices for Manganese Ore and Select Manganese Products
Table: Manganese Flake Prices, Monthly
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