India Agribusiness Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 72
Business Monitor International's India Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on India's agribusiness service.
BMI View: 2011/12 is expected to be a good year for the Indian agriculture sector on the whole, thanks to decent monsoon rains in Q411. With better supplies, the country is well poised to export key grains such as rice, wheat and sugar once more. However, we highlight that the enacting of the Food Security Bill in 2012 could keep domestic procurement of foodgrains high and might prevent export momentum continuing into 2013.
Key Trends
- Rice production growth to 2015/16: 10.8% to 110.6mn tonnes. This increase will come from increased domestic demand as India's population continues to swell, as well as better access to pesticides and fertilisers, which will improve crop yields.
- Milk production growth to 2015/16: 22.7% to 143.6mn tonnes. This will largely come from increasing domestic consumption of milk, as well as value-added goods like cheese and butter.
- Coffee production to 2015/16: 21.0% to 6.5mn bags. This will come from the further cultivation of land in non-traditional coffee states such as Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.
- 2012f real GDP growth: 7.3% (down from 6.8% in 2011; predicted to average 7.6% from 2012 until 2016).
- 2012f Consumer price inflation: 8.5% average (down from 9.2% y-o-y average in 2011; predicted to average 5.9% from 2012 until 2016).
Industry Developments
BMI highlights that inroads into new sugar export markets such as to countries in the Persian Gulf, could be made as the country increases exports in 2012. According to reports, Middle Eastern buyers could be inclined towards importing India-sourced raw sugar to be refined domestically instead of buying from Brazil, as is usually the case. The main attraction would be in the significantly cheaper shipping rates when importing sugar from the South Asian country. It has been estimated that Indian sugar shipments cost less than Brazilian shipments by more-than US$45/tonne.
BMI still believes that we will start to observe a change in Indian palm oil import dynamics in 2012, from crude palm oil imports to refined products. This will be on the back of the new palm oil export tax regime in Indonesia. Due to refined imports from Indonesia being relatively cheaper than it was before the tax change in October 2011, we expect to see gradual changes in Indian demand, shifting from raw imports (currently about 80% of total palm oil imports) to refined products (less than 15% of total palm oil imports).
Nestlé India, the Indian subsidiary of Swiss food and nutrition company Nestlé has launched 'Nescafé Plan', a global programme to help coffee farmers and optimise its coffee supply chain. The company has opened its first coffee demo farm and training centre in Karnataka as part of an optimisation plan, which will help farmers improve quality, productivity and sustainability. The programme has been designed to provide farmers high-yielding, disease resistant plantlets suitable for Indian conditions, according to a statement released by the company.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
India Agricultural SWOT
India Political SWOT
India Economic SWOT
India Business Environment SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
India Grains Outlook
Table: India Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: India Corn Production & Consumption
Table: India Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: India Corn Production & Consumption
India Dairy Outlook
Table: India Milk Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: India Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: India Milk Production & Consumption,2008-2016
Table: India Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2016
India Sugar Outlook
Table: India Sugar Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: India Sugar Production & Consumption,2008-2012
India Livestock Outlook
Table: India Poultry Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: India Beef & Veal Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: India Poultry Production & Consumption,,2008-2012
Table: India Beef & Veal Production & Consumption,2008-2012
India Rice Outlook 8
Table: India Rice Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: India Rice Production & Consumption
India Coffee Outlook
Table: India Coffee Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: India Coffee Production & Consumption,2008-2012
India Palm Oil Outlook
Table: India - Palm Oil Production, Consumption & Trade,2012-2016
Table: India - Palm Oil Production, Consumption & Trade,2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Corn
Rice
Soybean
Wheat
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa
Coffee
Palm Oil
Sugar
Industry Forecast
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Trade
Table: India Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: India MGR Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: India - Economic Activity
Is India On The Road To Recovery?
Industry Trend Analysis
Pause In Retail FDI Reform An Unwelcome Signal For Foreign Investors
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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