Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 69
Vietnam Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's oil and gas industry.
Oil output will continue to edge higher over the next few years as production from new fields offsets declining volumes at the flagship Bach Ho field. BMI expects oil output to peak in 2015, at 407,530 b/d, before declining rapidly to just 332,390 b/d by 2021. Given that demand is set to rise in line with strong economic growth, export volumes are likely to be eroded further and BMI therefore expects Vietnam to become a small net importer of oil by 2015. New gas discoveries in the Cuu Long Basin – along with greater associated gas volumes – are set to boost long-term gas production in line with demand up to 2016. Total gas output will then plateau at 24bcm from 2016-2021 unless there is significant new investment and further exploration.
The main trends and developments BMI highlights for Vietnam's Oil and Gas sector are:
- BMI expects oil production to rise from 394,700 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to peak at 407,530b/d in 2015, as new production from the Te Giac Trang (White Rhino), Dai Hung (Big Bear), and Chim Soa (Blackbird) fields comes onstream.
- This will offset declines at the flagship Bach Ho field with output at the field expected to fall from 106,250b/d in 2010 to just 33,293b/d by 2016.
- Consumption of crude is likely to rise steadily, in line with BMI's forecast of 6.8% average GDP growth between 2011 and 2016. BMI therefore expects oil demand to hit 434,300b/d by 2016, implying net imports of 37,710b/d.
- BMI estimate that gas production will peak at 24bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2016 where it will remain steady in the absence of significant new investment and exploration. Beyond 2016, gas demand is expected to outpace supply, making Vietnam a small net importer of gas by 2020.
- Oil and gas reserves are unlikely to increase dramatically from current levels of 4.4bn barrels (bbl) and 620trn cubic metres (tcm) respectively. Indeed, BMI expects reserves to decline gradually as new investment and exploration at offshore basins is curtailed because of vigorous Chinese opposition to drilling in the disputed South China Sea. In what appeared to be a veiled warning to ExxonMobil, China again warned oil companies to halt the development of oil and gas assets in the disputed territory in October 2011. This announcement followed Exxon's discovery of gas off Vietnam's Danang coast in August 2011.
- The development of Vietnam's refining industry is progressing, albeit at a very slow rate – mainly due to perennial delays to new projects. BMI anticipates that the Nghi Son refinery will be the first new project to come onstream, with a targeted start date of 2015/2016. Vietnam's refinery development will preserve valuable light sweet domestic crudes for export, while allowing the processing of cheaper heavier foreign grades for domestic consumption.
BMI assumes an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$99.38/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010 reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Vietnam Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Oil: Downstream
Table: Asia Pacific Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016
Liquefied Natural Gas
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016
Vietnam Energy Market Overview
Table: Vietnam – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Vietnam Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining/Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Vietnam
Oil Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
Vietnam Upstream Rating – Overview
Vietnam Upstream Rating – Rewards
Vietnam Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Vietnam Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
PetroVietnam
BP Vietnam
Petronas Vietnam
Zarubezhneft
Vietgazprom – Summary
ConocoPhillips – Summary
Lukoil – Summary
Idemitsu Kosan – Summary
Korea National Oil Corporation – Summary
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary
Chevron – Summary
Talisman Energy – Summary
Premier Oil – Summary
Soco International – Summary
Total – Summary
Petrolimex – Summary
Others – Summary
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Long-Term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Long-Term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Asia Pacific Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2014-2021
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm), 2014-2021
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- PetroVietnam
- BP Vietnam
- Petronas Vietnam
- Zarubezhneft
- Vietgazprom
- ConocoPhillips
- Lukoil
- Idemitsu Kosan
- Korea National Oil Corporation
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Chevron
- Talisman Energy
- Premier Oil
- Soco International
- Total
- Petrolimex
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