Japan Tourism Report Q2 2012
- ID: 2074794
- February 2012
- Region: Japan
- 53 Pages
- Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International's Japan Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japan's tourism industry.
Japan's arrival numbers have grown steadily since 2001. Although they took a hit in 2009, falling to less than 6.66mn after reaching 8.35mn in 2008, arrivals then rebounded in 2010 to 8.45mn. As a result of the devastating earthquake that hit Tohoku on March 11 2011 and the tsunami and nuclear crisis that followed, we cut our outlook for Japan's tourism industry in 2011 and 2012. Previously, BMI forecast 8.99mn and 9.64mn arrivals in 2011 and 2012 respectively. We now estimate arrivals fell in 2011 to 7.99mn, before rising to 8.57mn in 2012 and eventually reaching 10.41mn by 2015. Although arrivals to Japan fell by 57% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2011, according to the Japanese Tourism Agency (JTA) arrivals in the full-year were down by 30% compared to 2010, demonstrating that the industry is rebounding quickly.
The number of air and sea tourist arrivals continually increased between 2001 and 2007. Tourist arrivals by air were by far the most predominant, with 8.49mn arriving by air in 2007, compared to 666,000 by sea. Leisure arrivals outnumber those visiting Japan for business purposes. In 2009, leisure arrivals totalled 4.40mn, while business arrivals were 1.41mn, both falling from 2008 but picking up in 2010 to 6.06mn and 1.56mn respectively. BMI estimates the number of leisure arrivals dipped in 2011 to 5.63mn due to the natural disasters and we forecast that in 2012 they will begin to rebound, totalling 6.17mn. They should increase slowly thereafter to 7.88mn in 2015, when business arrivals are forecast to reach 1.72mn.
Japan is targeting Chinese tourists and has eased visa regulations for Chinese citizens. Until 2009, visas were only granted to individual Chinese travellers with an annual income of at least CNY250,000 (US$36,600). Given that this is a large sum for most Chinese workers, visitors tended to travel as part of a tour group. However, Japan has lowered the threshold of annual income to CNY60,000 (US$8,780). To deal with the rise in visa applications, all seven Japanese diplomatic offices in China will accept applications, instead of just three previously, and the number of Chinese tour agencies eligible to apply for visas for their customers has increased from 48 to 290.
As well as appointing Hiroshi Mizohata as the new tourism commissioner in April 2010, the JTA adopted a new slogan and logo. The ‘Japan: Endless Discovery' slogan is part of the country's revamped tourist promotions to boost inbound visitor numbers. The logo is a white Japanese cherry blossom against a red sun background.
Individual and collective government expenditure is forecast to be relatively stagnant. The government's individual expenditure has risen from US$15.64bn in 2001 and is forecast to be US$25.90bn in 2012, though it will decrease to US$25.64mn in 2015. In 2001, collective expenditure came in at US$12.30bn and it is forecast to peak at US$20.24bn in 2012. From 2012, BMI forecasts collective expenditure to fall, going under US$20bn from 2013.
There is room for growth in the low-cost carrier segment of the Japanese airline market. Japan's air industry is dominated by Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA). Budget airlines have not sprung up in Japan as in the rest of the Asia Pacific region due to the country's expensive and inefficient airports. That said, Ibaraki Airport at Omitama, 53 miles (85km) north of Tokyo, opened in March 2010 and is intended to be a no-frills airport, which could allow for budget airlines to enter the market.
However, Ibaraki has only attracted one daily flight to the South Korean capital Seoul on Asiana Airlines and domestic flights to Kobe and Sapporo on Skymark Airlines. In February 2011, Peach Aviation was established as the first low-cost carrier in Japan. Peach will be based at Kansai and start flights to Sapporo/Shin Chitose and Fukuoka no later than March 2012, and to Seoul/Incheon in May. The carrier is 33.4% owned by ANA, while First Eastern Aviation Holdings and Innovation Network Corporation of Japan each have a 33.3% stake. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
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Table: Arrivals Data,2008-2015 (‘000)
Table: Hotels Data, 2008-2015 (‘000)
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015
Table: Torist Arrivals By Region, 2008-2015 (‘000)
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Country, 2008-2015 (‘000)
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2008-2015
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BMI's Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Japan's Security Ratings
North East Asia Security Overview
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia
The Evolution Of North East Asia
Europe On The Edge
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (%chg y-o-y)
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2011-2012 (%chg y-o-y)
All Nippon Airways
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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