Kenya Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2012

Business Monitor International's Kenya Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kenya's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

BMI View:

The Kenyan pharmaceuticals and healthcare market presents significant revenue-earning opportunities for drug companies. Growth in the sector will be boosted by strong demographics, increased healthcare needs, longer life expectancy, rising healthcare spending in the public and private sectors and improved access to health facilities. In addition to an increase in the healthcare services provided by the government, there is also growing demand for health services due to increasing awareness of preventative healthcare.

Headline Expenditure Projections:

- Pharmaceuticals: KES39.07bn (US$440mn) in 2011 to KES46.09bn (US$527mn) in 2012; 18.0% growth in local currency terms and 19.7% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: KES135.91bn (US$ 1.53bn) in 2011 to KES152.89bn (US$1.75bn) in 2012; 12.5% growth in local currency terms and 14.2% in US dollar terms.
- Medical devices: KES7.19bn (US$81mn) in 2011 to KES7.70bn (US$88mn) in 2012; 7.1% growth in local currency terms and 8.7% in US dollar terms.
Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's Q212 Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Kenya is 23rd in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, above Uganda, Nigeria and Cameroon. A large counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a lowly position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers more commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.

Key Trends And Developments:

- In December 2011, private healthcare providers in Kenya were considering issuing bonds to raise capital to fund their multibillion shilling expansion projects. Aggressive monetary policy from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has led to a squeeze on domestic liquidity as the cost that banks pay for their borrowing has soared – making the traditional bank loan method of raising capital unattractive.

- With an ambition to provide universal health coverage for the Kenyan population, the government will launch subsidised health insurance cover in October 2012 to increase the affordability of health insurance for people on low incomes. BMI welcomes the government's recognition of the need to create a more equitable healthcare system that addresses the needs of those that are on low incomes. Stratification data clearly show a large proportion of Kenya's population has extremely low spending power. In 2010, the poorest 20% of the population's per capita spending amounted to US$166 and the middle 60% of the population's per capita spending was US$486. Highlighting the already poor affordability levels for healthcare and medicines, in 2011 per capita expenditure on healthcare was US$37 and per capita expenditure on pharmaceuticals reached US$11.

BMI Economic View:

Although the Kenyan economy will be adversely affected by the subdued outlook for European demand, we believe brighter prospects in regional trade partners combined with improving domestic conditions should mean the economy expands in 2012. Major risks come from the weather and elections scheduled for the second half of the year.

BMI Political View:

Rising prices, the implementation of the new constitution and the ongoing trials of key politicians at the International Criminal Court all pose risks to Kenya's political stability. However, we maintain our view that the biggest challenge comes from the approach of elections in 2012. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
Kenya Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Kenya Political SWOT
Kenya Economic SWOT
Kenya Business Environment SWOT

Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings, Q212
Rewards
Risks Kenya – Market Summary
Regulatory Regime .
Intellectual Property
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
Table: Kenya Medical Supply Agency's Mandate

Industry Trends and Developments
Epidemiology
Healthcare Provision
Healthcare Sector Financing
Health Insurance
Private Healthcare
National Drug Policy
Supply Chain
Medical Devices
Clinical Trials

Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Table: Governmental Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Kenya Economic Activity, 2001-2016
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales, 2008-2016
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2008-2016
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2008-2016
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Device Sales, 2008-2016
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2008-2016
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts

Competitive Landscape
Pharmaceutical Industry Activities

Company Profiles
Local Companies
Dawa Limited
Universal Corporation Limited
Shelys Pharmaceuticals
Regal Pharmaceuticals
High Chem East Africa
Multinational Companies
GlaxoSmithKline
Pfizer
Novartis
Sanofi
Merck & Co

Country Snapshot: Kenya Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)

Glossary

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources

- Dawa Limited
- Universal Corporation Limited
- Shelys Pharmaceuticals
- Regal Pharmaceuticals
- High Chem East Africa
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Pfizer
- Novartis
- Sanofi
- Merck & Co