Mobile Messaging Futures 2012-2016
Portio Research, February 2012, Pages: 376
In 2011, the worldwide mobile messaging market was worth USD 202 billion. Serious money indeed. Not least because messaging provides the backbone of mobile operators' non-voice revenues.
A market of such impressive value obviously encourages heated competition and breeds innovation, making it both exciting and testing times for the mobile messaging space.
This is now the 6th edition of Mobile Messaging Futures, and since the last edition that we published in January 2011, there has been a huge shift in mobile messaging markets.
Clearly, one of the biggest themes under discussion in the mobile messaging industry in the second half of 2011 and now in early 2012 is this issue of 'the end of SMS' and the booming rise of Over-the-Top (OTT) messaging services (or 'next generation' messaging services, to offer just one of a great many aliases).
But is the 'SMS doom' scenario accurate, and – in reality – is the feared cannibalisation actually happening?
In addition to informed analysis of SMS, MMS, mobile e-mail, and mobile IM – and new sections on SMS Hubbing; and Mobile Marketing and Advertising – we have included groundbreaking five-year OTT User and Traffic forecasts in this new report.
And, yes – our OTT traffic numbers are huge. And very possibly still conservative. But such statistics mean little without detailed context and explanations, which we offer over the report's pages. Context that will help dispel the hype that seems commonplace in media reports, and explanations that will cut through the industry's misunderstanding about how OTT services are being used, and how popular they are.
That said, the underlying question (SMS vs. OTT) is a valid one.
Within the mobile space, messaging is the biggest revenue generator after voice. Within messaging, SMS is king and yielded the highest revenue for mobile network operators (MNOs) in 2011. And so fevered interest about changing market dynamics is understandable and relevant.
With these largely free or 'almost free' OTT messaging services seeing uptake, it is of course proper to assess precisely how pressing the concern is that the highest margin messaging service for operators (SMS) is being cannibalised by OTT services that are overwhelmingly yet-to-be monetised, and with usage thereof being largely beyond the control and influence of MNOs.
But, does a boost to one messaging type have to equate to a usage drop in another? Does it have to mean cannibalisation of SMS? What about synergy? Side by side traffic growth? And what of the other messaging mediums of MMS, mobile e-mail and mobile IM? After all, while messaging users love to communicate seamlessly, popular modes of communications do vary – and maybe OTT isn't a replacement, but rather just one more segment of the messaging mix.
This new 6th edition of Mobile Messaging Futures examines these issues and much, much more.
This exciting new market study looks at the worldwide mobile messaging market in twelve data-packed chapters:
- Introduction
- Worldwide Mobile Market
- Mobile Messaging Market
- SMS
- SMS Hubbing
- Mobile Marketing and Advertising
- OTT Messaging Services
- MMS
- Mobile E-mail
- Mobile IM
- Summary and Conclusions
- Appendices (including full glossary of terms)
So what of our contenders in the headline-grabbing SMS vs. OTT battle?
SMS, or text messaging, has established itself as the simplest and easiest means of personalised one-to-one communication – and has long been the most popular messaging service and has helped MNOs significantly offset the effects of falling voice revenue.
In recent years, OTT messaging services have gained momentum among mobile users owing to factors including an upsurge in smartphone penetration, adoption of advanced networks providing high-speed Internet access, discounted and unlimited data plans, and the uptake of apps.
And now SMS, which was once considered the most economical means of messaging, is being viewed by some consumers as one of the most expensive data services, and is being challenged by 'free' OTT messaging services – albeit with limitations of their own (which we will discuss). And of course, this is all set within the wider messaging context of the competing MMS, mobile e-mail and MIM services, and the wider-still mobile ecosystem.
Among the mobile messaging services scrutinised in this report, SMS yielded the highest revenue for operators in 2011 and mobile IM gathered the least.
SMS still rules the mobile messaging market in both traffic and revenue terms. SMS generated the highest revenue in 2011, and SMS revenue is forecast to dominate worldwide mobile messaging over the next five years to 2016. While MMS has maintained its position as the second most successful non-voice mobile service over the years, 2011 saw it fall behind mobile e-mail in revenue terms. Mobile IM generated the lowest revenue in the mobile messaging market in 2011 – but it will surpass MMS revenue by end-2016.
As discussed, SMS made the highest contribution to worldwide mobile messaging revenue in 2011 with a 63.5 percent share; in 2016, SMS will continue to lead other messaging services, but its revenue share (of the then USD 310 billion market) will have eroded to sub-50 percent.
Further reasons to buy this research:
- Benefit from a complete review for each messaging technology
- See the growth still to come over the next 5 years
- Explore and identify opportunities in this rapidly changing segment
- Determine if OTT services really are 'instant SMS killers'; and learn how OTT can help promote brand loyalty
- Examine regional mobile e-mail and mobile IM revenue and user penetration forecasts
- Familiarise yourself with the growing USD 231 billion messaging market in 2012
- Gain insight into P2P/A2P SMS traffic breakouts
- Discover why OTT traffic appears to be growing so big so fast; and what factors will slow OTT adoption
- Highlight the drivers bolstering uptake of different messaging services
- Reflect on the Upside and Downside of our SMS outlook
- Establish how long MNOs have to protect their SMS revenues from OTT; plus why they should should fight and how
- Plus commentary on the mixed blessing of smartphones for MMS; and how OTT will impact SMS and MMS differently
- Speed-read the bonus executive summary presentation
Key features of this essential new market study:
- Receive informed answers to the key 'SMS vs. OTT' questions
- Understand the true value of the worldwide mobile messaging industry
- Review detailed growth forecasts to 2016 for SMS, OTT, MMS, mobile e-mail and mobile IM
- Assess country level data and market sizing for 76 key messaging markets
- Analyse the massive USD 128 billion that SMS made in 2011, and appraise its resilience against competing messaging services to 2016
- Read OTT messaging forecasts with detailed context and explanations; dispel media hype and industry misconceptions about how OTT services are being used, and how popular they are
- Uncover whether OTT services, IM apps and social networking sites are only 'clipping the wings' of SMS, or if it's more serious
- Digest profiles of key OTT messaging services, including BlackBerry Messenger (BBM), WhatsApp, Facebook Chat, and Apple iMessage
- Scrutinise comprehensive traffic and revenue forecasts for SMS and MMS
- Learn how MMS, mobile e-mail and mobile IM will perform to 2016
- Essential insight and extensive worldwide, regional and country-level data
- Study new sections on SMS Hubbing; and Mobile Marketing and Advertising
- Features an extensive Conclusions chapter, which includes an assessment of whether SMS and OTT can exist side by side, and commentary on SMS and MMS price erosion
Introduction
Worldwide Mobile Market
Mobile Messaging Market
SMS
History and Future Outlook of SMS
Comparison between new and previous forecasts
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America
Africa and Middle East
SMS Hubbing
SMS Interconnection Models
SMS Hubbing
– Overview
– Benefits of SMS Hubbing
– Revenue Flow Model
– SMS Hubbing Providers
Mobile Marketing and Advertising
Impact of SMS and MMS on Mobile Advertising
– How SMS and MMS Advertising Work?
Role of Smartphones in Mobile Advertising
Brief Profiles of Key Players
Impact of Mobile Advertising on SMS and MMS
OTT Messaging Services
Introduction
Drivers and Inhibitors for the Adoption of OTT Messaging Services
– Drivers
– Inhibitors
Business Model
OTT Messaging Service Providers
Profiles of Key OTT Messaging Services
– BlackBerry Messenger
– WhatsApp
– Facebook Chat
– iMessage
Market Size
– Forecast Methodology
– OTT Messaging Users
– OTT Messaging Traffic
Conservative traffic forecasting
– Rationale for excluding Revenue analysis
Mobile Network Operators: Taking a stand on OTT messaging services
MMS
History and Future Outlook of MMS
Comparison between new and previous forecasts
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America
Africa and Middle East
Mobile E-mail
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America
Africa and Middle East
Mobile IM
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America
Africa and Middle East
Summary and Conclusions
Mobile Messaging
SMS
– SMS price erosion
– The downside of our SMS outlook
– The brightside of SMS outlook
– A2P messaging – room for growth
OTT Messaging Services
– Core conclusion: SMS and OTT existing side-by-side
MMS
– Peak traffic
– The sad decline of MMS
– Social media is killing MMS, big time
– MMS price erosion
Mobile E-mail
Mobile IM
– The Big Picture
– The Changing Dynamics of the Mobile Messaging Market
– M2M
– RCS-e
Smartphone Penetration
– Disruptive Services
– SMS is still the king
Appendices
Glossary
Portio Research Classifications
Companies Mentioned in this Report
About the Authors
Also available from Portio Research Limited
- 3
- 01tribe
- 12snap
- 3 Italia
- 360Global
- A1 Telekom Austria
- Acision
- adidas
- Aicent
- Air One
- AIS Thailand
- Alterna
- AltPhone
- AMD Telecom
- American Express
- AOL
- Apple
- Ashley Furniture Homestore
- AT&T
- ATAC
- Atos
- Audi
- Auto Trader
- Avea
- Avis
- barablu
- Barclays
- BBC
- Belgacom ICS
- Bell Mobility
- BH Telecom
- Bharti Airtel
- Birds Eye
- Bite Lietuva
- BMW
- BSNL
- BT Global Services
- Calvin Klein
- Carlsberg
- Celcom
- Cell C
- Cellempower
- Chevrolet
- China Mobile
- China Telecom
- China Unicom
- Cisco
- CITIC Telecom International
- Claro
- Claro Brazil
- Coca-Cola
- Comcel
- comScore
- Comviva Technologies
- CSL New World Mobility
- Cybergold Integrated Solutions
- Daum
- De Lijn
- Dell
- Deutsche Telekom
- Dialogue Communications
- Digicel
- Digitel
- Disney
- Dolce & Gabbana
- Doritos
- du
- Duracell
- Eastlink
- eBuddy
- eCircle
- Elisa
- EMI
- EQO
- Ericsson
- ESPN
- Etisalat
- Facebook
- Ferrerro
- Ford
- FOX
- France Telecom
- Free SMS
- fring
- Fuseware
- Gerber
- Globacom
- Global SMS Networks Private Limited
- Globe Telecom
- Google
- GrameenPhone Bangladesh
- Harris/Decima
- HBO
- Honda
- Huawei
- Hutchison Telecom
- The Hyperfactory
- i2SMS
- iBasis
- iconmobile
- Infobip
- Intel
- Interop Technologies
- Ipsos
- Jajah
- JaxtrSMS
- Jinny
- John Lewis
- KakaoTalk
- Ketchum
- Kik Messenger
- Knotice
- KPN
- Kraft Foods
- LG
- LG Uplus
- Line2
- Logica
- Loop Mobile
- Lowe's
- Lufthansa
- LuxGSM
- Lynx
- MACH
- Magnaglobal
- Manchester United
- Maroc Telecom
- Mavenir Systems
- Médiamétrie
- Meditel
- MegaFon
- Mercedes-Benz
- Meredith Corporation
- MGM Grand
- Microsoft
- Mindshare
- Mobiety
- Mobile One2One
- mobileStorm
- Mobily
- Mobinil
- Mobistar
- Moblin
- Mo-Call
- Monty Mobile
- Movilnet
- Movistar
- MTN Cyprus
- MTN Irancell
- MTN South Africa
- MTS
- MTV
- Mxit
- MySpace
- Nawras Telecom
- Nedjma
- Nestle
- Net4Mobility
- Neustar
- New York Post
- Nielsen
- Nike
- nimbuzz
- Nokia
- Nova
- O2
- Octro
- Ogilvy
- Oman Mobile
- Omnitel
- Optimus
- Orange
- Palringo
- Pepsico
- Peugeot
- Pinger
- Planet Funk
- Planet Hollywood
- Postbank
- Procter & Gamble
- Proximus
- Qualcomm
- Rebtel
- Red Bull
- Red Bull Mobile
- Reliance Communication India
- Renren
- Responsys
- RIM
- Rogers Communications
- RSPB
- Samsung
- Saudi Telecom Company
- SFR
- Siemens
- Siminn
- SK Telecom
- Skype
- Smart Communications
- SMS GupShup
- Softbank Mobile
- Sony
- Sony Ericsson
- Sponge
- Sprint Nextel
- StarHub
- STC
- Sunrise
- Swisscom
- Sybase 365
- Synchronica
- Syniverse
- Taco Bell
- Tal
- Talkonaut
- Tango
- Tata DoCoMo
- TDC
- Tekelec
- Telcel
- Tele2
- Telecom Italia
- Telecom Italia Sparkle
- Telecom Mobile
- Telecom Personal
- TeleCommunication Systems
- Telefonica
- Telekom Srpske (m:tel)
- Telenor
- telfree
- Telia
- TeliaSonera
- Telkom Kenya
- Telsis
- Telstra
- TELUS Mobility
- Tencent
- TextNow
- textPlus
- Thrutu
- Tigo
- TIM
- TIM Brasil
- TMN
- T-Mobile
- Toyota
- TrueMove
- Turkcell
- Twitter
- Two Degrees Mobile Limited
- tyntec
- Ubiquity
- Unilever
- Utalk
- Velti
- Viber
- VIPnet
- Visa
- Viva Bahrain
- Vivo Brazil
- Vodacom
- Vodafone
- Volkswagen
- Vopium
- Wataniya
- Way2SMS
- We Love Mobile
- Weibo
- WhatsApp
- Wind Hellas
- Wind Italy
- World Wide Worx
- Wrigley
- Xiam
- Xiaomi
- XL Axiata (Excelcomindo)
- Yahoo
- YOC
- Yoigo
- YouTube
- yuMobile
- Zain
- Zain Bahrain
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