Vehicle Electrification: Market Forces and Demand Characteristics, First Edition
Darnell Group, December 2008, Pages: 111
Vehicle electrification is a broad term that typically involves the incorporation of efficient electric motors to displace conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) power. Vehicle electrification may involve simply replacing inefficient belt and gear driven under-the-hood auxiliaries (pumps, heating/air conditioning, cooling fans, etc.) with efficient electric-powered ones. It can also combine electric propulsion with ICEs in various parallel, series, and plug-in hybrid configurations to increase efficiencies, or eliminate the ICE entirely by replacing it with full electric propulsion, such as in a battery- or fuel cell-powered vehicle. Generally, as vehicle power becomes more electric, fuel efficiency improves and cost and complexity increases. Due to fuel prices, vehicle makers are finding it much more feasible to justify electrification, particularly when other benefits are considered.
This report looks at both emerging hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV) and plug-in electric vehicle (PHEV) electric propulsion technologies, along with trends in the battery chemistries used with them. It also examines some of the issues related to infrastructure development for PHEVs, in particular. Although passenger cars get a lot of the press related to these vehicles, some of the better opportunities will be found in commercial, off-road and small, task-oriented vehicles. In these cases, fleet managers and operators will be evaluating the costs and benefits of HEVs and PHEVs, so a cost analysis is also included in this study.
The number of hybrid car sales in North America is expected to double in the next three years, according to R.L. Polk & Company, an auto industry market research firm. Polk forecasts that more than one in 20 new vehicles sold in the US and Canada will have a hybrid gas-electric powertrain by 2012. That is a growth from 2.8% in 2008 to 5.3% in 2012. Europe will grow even more quickly, from one-half percent in 2008 to 5.0% in 2012, due to more environmental and regulatory pressures. Much of the growth in Europe is coming from the Toyota Prius. Polk believes that hybrids will continue to sell, even with drops in fuel prices and the current downturn in auto sales. “The meltdown will translate to lower quantities because of a lower market base, but given the attention on fuel efficiency, base demand will increase,” according to the report.
Five years ago, 99% of global hybrid sales were from the US, Canada, Japan, UK and France. Today, the hybrid market has spread to nearly 50 countries, with dramatic growth in the Netherlands, Greece and Israel. Nissan Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co. foresee a big push by automakers to bring pure electric vehicles to market, predicting that 10% of all vehicles globally will be electric by 2020.
While passenger vehicles appear to dominate the discussion in the press, the Commercial/Fleet Vehicle segment is the most targeted application for vehicle electrification, particularly buses. Many companies are also going after the “heavy-duty” segments, which includes both Heavy Duty Trucks and Agriculture/Construction/Forestry Vehicles. The most mature of the existing markets for electrification is the small, task-oriented vehicle (STOV) market (including Off-Road Utility Vehicles and Turf Care). The STOV market relies more on electric architectures as an alternative to ICEs, like the companies that do golf carts and forklifts. The hybrid-electric bus market is coming out it its “emerging” status, with companies beginning to lock down contracts.
Heavy Duty Trucks and Commercial/Fleet Vehicles are good, but longer-term, market opportunities. Buses are the most mature portion of the Commercial/Fleet Vehicle segment. Truck stop electrification is pushing heavy duty truck manufacturers to consider alternatives that increase fuel efficiency, reduce engine size, reduce maintenance costs, extend engine life, and reduce emissions. Companies interested in this market should look at vehicles with varying loads and start-stop characteristics, such as long-haul cargo, public transport, delivery and utility (e.g. cleaning and refuse trucks). This market will require pragmatic arguments for vehicle electrification, including cost savings and incentives. Knowledge of government regulations is important.
With hybrid-electric vehicles, rapid software integration is just as important as rapid hardware development. Optimizing system management software can be a major contributor to lower overall system costs. Selecting the correct control strategy and system management software enables the system to deliver the desired level of system performance with the least-cost hardware solution.
System integration capabilities are a differentiator in these markets. Heavy hybrid vehicles will require inexpensive, lightweight, and simplified power electronics that can be easily integrated into heavy hybrid approaches and systems. In particular, small-volume power electronics with higher durability and reliability are needed to control voltage, frequency, switching timing, and state-of-charge conditions and manage system power outputs from the prime mover, electric motors, and auxiliary power units. One feature that has a significant impact on cost is whether or not the dc-dc converter is integrated into the other power electronics, most likely along with the inverter in an HEV or if the dc-dc converter is a standalone, independent device.
This comprehensive analysis also considers the direction of technology development and industry standards. Both of these areas are rapidly evolving and will have significant impact on the adoption rates, and the commercial opportunities, that develop for makers of HEV components, sub-systems, and systems.
While technology is evolving on a global basis, the critical standards for HEVs are local in nature. The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), U.S. Department of Transportation, the Japan Fire Equipment Inspection Institute (JFEII), International Standards Organization (ISO), Korea Standards Mark, China Compulsory Certification mark, and the Chinese National Standards are just a few of the diverse standards organizations setting rules for makers of HEVs.
Finally, a specific and quantitative analysis of HEV power electronics pricing is included. Factors such as production volumes, power levels, semiconductor device pricing, packaging considerations and so on are used to arrive at pricing projections for competitive dc-dc converters and inverters for HEV applications.
These are only some of the important, and sometimes hidden, trends that are pushing and pulling HEV demand into the future. This report provides a unique, comprehensive, quantitative picture of the changing shape and direction of the global market for HEV power electronics and related systems and sub-systems.
Introduction
Application Trends by Vehicle Type
Passenger Vehicles
Light Trucks
Small Task-Oriented Vehicles
Golf Carts/Neighborhood Electric Vehicles
Turf Care
Commercial Vehicles
Buses
Environmental Drivers
Fleet Vehicles
Lift Trucks
Heavy-Duty Trucks
Europe and Asia versus North America
Off-Road Vehicles
Off-Road Utility Vehicles
Agriculture/Construction/Forestry/Mining Vehicles
Electrification Architectures
Voltage Requirements
Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Systems and Technologies
Powertrain System Makers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Components and Module Makers
Electrification Architectures and Vehicle Type
System Integration and Components
Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
Battery Technologies and Trends
Emerging Chemistries
Battery Management
Infrastructure Implications
Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
Business and Cost Analysis
Manufacturing and Service
Pricing Curves for the Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Market
Non-Vehicle DC-DC Converter Pricing Curves
Hybrid-Electric Vehicle DC-DC Converter Pricing Curves
Technology Trends
Reliability
Dual Cooling and Thermal Management
Advanced Materials and Components
System Integration
Power Electronics
DC-DC Converters/Inverters
EMI
Resistor Grids
Transient Smoothing
Standards and Regulations
North America
Europe
Asia
Tables
Table 1 - Vehicle Electrification, Adoption Rates
Table 2 - Airport Tug Manufacturers
Table 3 - North America Truck Classifications
Table 4 - Market Definition, by Vehicle Type
Table 5 - Vehicle Types and Voltages
Table 6 - Light-Duty Vehicles, Candidates for Electrification
Table 7 - Medium-Duty Vehicles, Candidates for Electrification
Table 8 - Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Candidates for Electrification
Table 9 - Dollars-per-Kilowatt Non-Vehicle DC-DC Converters, Average $/kW and Typical Range
Table 10 - Non-Vehicle Discounting Path, Average Discount and Typical Range
Table 11 - Non-Vehicle Pricing Curve Table, Dollars-per-Kilowatt at Various Volumes
Table 12 - Non-Passenger Vehicle Interpolation Factors, Percentage Change from Non-Automotive
Table 13 - Vehicle Discounting Path (Non-Passenger)
Table 14 - Vehicle Pricing Curve Table (Non-Passenger), Dollars-per-Kilowatt at Various Volumes
Figures
Figure 1 - Series Hybrid with Diesel Generator (Enova Systems)
Figure 2 - Post-Transmission Parallel Hybrid (Enova Systems)
Figure 3 - Pre-Transmission Parallel Hybrid (Enova Systems)
Figure 4 - Utility HEV System (Eaton Corporation)
Figure 5 - Hydraulic Launch Assist™ (HLA®) Configuration (Eaton Corporation)
Figure 6 - Series Hybrid Hydraulic System (Eaton Corporation)
Figure 7 - ArvinMeritor Electric Drive Axle, ME-26-720
Figure 8 - Allison Transmission Hybrid Powertrain System
Figure 9 - Allison Transmission Hybrid Powertrain System Diagram
Figure 10 - BAE Systems Orion VII Hybrid Powertrain System
Figure 11 - Toyota Prius Powertrain
Figure 12 - Toyota Prius Engine, Motor and Generator
Figure 13 - Toyota Prius Inverter
Figure 14 - Non-Vehicle Pricing Curve, Dollars-per-Kilowatt at Various Volumes
Figure 15 - Non-Vehicle Pricing Curve Table, Dollars-per-Kilowatt at Various Wattages
Figure 16 - Non-Passenger Vehicle Pricing Curve, Dollars-per-Kilowatt at Various Volumes
Figure 17 - Non-Passenger Vehicle Pricing Curve, Dollars-per-Kilowatt at Various Wattages
- ABB
- Actel
- Advanced Energy
- Advanced Public Transport
- AFS Trinity Power
- AllGreenVehicles
- Allison Electric Drives
- Allison Transmission
- American Electric Vehicles
- American Trucking Association
- Analog Devices
- Anhui Forklift Truck Group
- Arens Controls
- ArvinMeritor
- Ashok Leylands
- Astec/Artesyn
- Atlet
- Australia Health Pro Ambulance Co.
- Australian Communications Authority
- Avago Technologies
- BAE Systems
- Ballard Power Systems
- BC Hydro
- Beijing DeLong Electric Power Equipment Co. Ltd
- Beijing Landeke Special Vehicle Technical Co. Ltd
- Better Place
- Bluebird Automotive
- Bosch
- Boshart Electric Vehicles
- British Industrial Truck Association
- British Standards Institute
- CalCars
- California Air Resources Board
- California Electric Transportation Coalition
- California State Polytechnic University
- Canadian Electric Vehicles Ltd.
- CANMET-MMSL
- Catepillar Inc.
- Chalmers University
- Charlatte America
- Chevron
- China Ministry of Science and Technology
- China Weapon Baodou Group North Creation Co. Ltd.
- Chrylser LLC
- CISMA
- CITIC Guoan Mengguli
- Clean Green Car Co.
- Club Car
- Coachmen
- Cobasys
- Coca-Cola
- Comitato Nazionale Italiano della FEM
- Comite Nacional Espanol de FEM
- Compact Power LG
- Continental/Siemens VDO
- Coulomb Technologies
- Cree
- Crown
- Cummins
- Curtis Instruments
- Daimler Buses North America
- DaimlerChrysler
- Dalian Forklift Truck Corp. Ltd
- Damascus Corp.
- Danaher Motion
- Delphi
- Deltron
- Denso Corp
- DICKEY-john
- Douglas Equipment Ltd
- DRS Technologies
- Duke Energy
- DynaStart
- E Traction N. America LLC
- Eagle Tugs
- Eaton Corp.
- Ebus
- ECOtality Inc.
- EEC
- Electric Power Research Institute
- Electric Tractor Co
- Electric Transportation Engineering Corp.
- Electric Truck LLC
- Electrite de France
- Enel
- Ener1
- EnerDel
- Energy Conversion Devices
- Enova Systems
- Espar Heating
- European Caravaning Federation
- European Commission
- European Investment Bank
- European Union
- Federal Communications Commission
- Federal Transportation Authority
- Federation Europeenne de la Manutention (Switzerland)
- FedEx
- First Auto Works of China
- Fisker Automotive
- Fleetwood
- Flexilift
- FMC Technologies
- Ford Motor Co.
- Fraunhofer Institute
- Freightliner LLC
- Fuji Heavy Industries
- General Motors
- German Federal Ministry of Transport
- GM Allison
- GM Powertrain
- Goldhofer AG
- Graziano
- Green Car Congress
- Hangzhou Forklift Truck Group
- Hanyang University
- Harlan Global Manufacturers LLC
- HDM
- Hilliard Corporation
- Hino Motors Ltd.
- Hitachi Construction Machinery Co.
- Hitachi Electric
- Hitachi Vehicle Energy
- Honda R&D Co. Ltd.
- Huangzhou Kang Bao Medical Vehicle Company Ltd
- Hybrid Truck Users Forum
- Hydrogenics
- Hyster
- Hyundai Heavy Industries
- Hyundai Motor Corp.
- IAV GmbH
- Industrial Truck Association
- Industrial Truck Standards Development Foundation
- Infineon
- Inmotion
- Innergy Power Corp.
- International Rectifier
- International Standards Association
- International Truck and Engine
- Irisbus
- ISE Corp.
- ISE Research
- Isuzu
- ITT Interconnect Solutions
- Iveco
- Jacobson
- Japan External Trade Organization
- Japan Fire Equipment Inspection Institute
- Japan Post Service
- Japanese Industrial Vehicle Association
- Japanese Standards Association
- Jiachang Electric Power Equipment Co
- Johnson Controls
- Jungheinrich
- Kenworth Truck Company
- Kobelco
- Komatsu Ltd.
- Korea Standards (KS) Service Network
- Lektro
- LG Chem Ltd.
- Liebherr Construction Equipment Co.
- Linde
- Linear Technology Corp.
- Long Beach Airport
- Lynco Tugger Co.
- M Trans
- Mack Trucks
- Magna Steyr
- Marks & Spencer
- Melexis
- Mercedes-Benz
- Michelin Group
- Mid-Atlantic Grid Interactive Car Consortium
- Miles Electric Vehicles
- Miles-Benelux BV
- Mitsubishi Fuso
- Mitsubishi Motor Corp.
- Monaco Industries
- Motorola Automotive Group
- NASA
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory
- National RV
- Navistar International
- New Flyer Industries
- New York Power Authority
- New York State Energy Research and Development Authority
- New Zealand Ministry of Economic Development
- Nidec Corporation
- Nissan Motor Co.
- Nissan-Renault
- Noordam Performance
- North American Bus Industries
- Occupational Safety and Health Administration
- Odyne Corp.
- Office of FreedomCAR & Vehicle Technologies
- Orion Bus Industries
- Oshkosh Truck Corp
- PACCAR
- Pacific Gas & Electric
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
- Panasonic EV Energy
- Pepco Holdings
- Pepsi-Cola
- Peterbilt
- PJM
- Portland General Electric Co.
- Powerex
- Progress Energy
- Provector
- PSA Peugeot Citroen
- Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies
- Queens College
- Radio Spectrum Management Group
- Raser Technologies Inc.
- Redarc
- Renault Subaru
- Renault/Opel
- Ricardo
- Rich Marks
- Rohm Co. Ltd
- Royal Mail
- RWE AG
- Sacramento Municipal Utility District
- Saft Groupe SA
- Samsung
- Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd.
- SBE Inc.
- Scania
- Schenectady City School District
- Schneider Electric
- Semikron International GmbH & Co.
- Semisouth
- Seoul National University
- Shanghai Shineng Electrical Equipment Factory
- Siemens Energy & Automation
- Silicon Laboratories
- Sisu Auto
- Smart
- Smith Electric Vehicles
- Society of Automotive Engineers
- Solomon Technologies Inc.
- Southern California Edison
- Stanford University
- Starbucks
- Swedish Committee of FEM
- Taiwanese Bureau of Standards
- Metrology and Inspection
- Tanfield Group PLC
- Tata
- Taylor- Dunn Manufacturing Corp.
- Technipower
- Tennessee Valley Authority
- Tennessee Valley Public Power Association
- Terex Corp.
- The Hammonds Co
- The Little Big Tug Co. Ltd
- Thor Industries
- Tiger Truck LLC
- TK Maxx
- TLD America
- Tokyo Electric Power Co
- Tomoedenki
- Toro Co.
- Toyota Central Research and Development Laboratories
- Toyota Motor Corp.
- TranSiC
- Trojan Battery
- Tronair Inc.
- Tufts University
- Tug Technologies Corp
- UK Department of Transport
- UK Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform
- Underwriters Laboratories
- United Parcel Service
- University of California at Davis
- University of California at Irvine
- University of California at Los Angeles
- University of Delaware
- University of Illinois
- UQM Technology
- US Air Quality Management District
- US Department of Energy
- US Department of Transportation
- US Environmental Protection Agency
- US Hybrid
- US National Highway Transportation Safety Administration
- US National Park Service
- US Navy
- US Postal Service
- UTC Power
- V2Green
- Valence Technology
- Vansco Electronics
- Verban Deutscher Maschinen-und Anlagenbau e.V.
- Verizon
- Volkswagen
- Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles
- Volvo Construction Equipment
- Volvo Trucks
- Volvo/Renault Trucks
- Wal-Mart Transportation
- Waste Management
- WestStart-CALSTART
- Winnebago
- Wright Bus
- Xantrex
- Xcel Energy
- Yale University
- Yale
- ZF Friedrichshafen AG
- ZF Sachs
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