- Language: English
- 597 Pages
- Published: February 2012
- Region: Global
Argentina Shipping Report Q2 2012
- Published: March 2012
- Region: Argentina
- 126 Pages
- Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International's Argentina Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's shipping industry.
BMI believes that the Argentine government has artificially propped up growth during recent years. This should continue to support real term expansion over the coming quarters, but BMI believes that this government-led growth is ultimately unsustainable. Real GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.1% in 2012, down from growth of 7% in 2011.
Private consumption is set to remain a key driver of economic growth, ensuring demand for imports of containerised goods. However, as we have repeatedly noted in recent months, this trend is less reflective of strong economic fundamentals but more the government's continued fiscal support to household incomes. As consumers have little incentive to save because of the nation's soaring inflation - with inflation expectations for June 2011 averaging 32.5%, significantly higher than INDEC's 9.7% May 2011 estimate - this trend is likely to continue supporting growth, boding well for containerised imports in the short term, but further exacerbating the economy's inflationary woes.
Headline Industry Data
- Total volume at the Port of Buenos Aires is set to rise by 4.7% in 2012 to reach 12.6mn tonnes. Box handling at the same port will also grow by 4.7% to 1.2mn TEUs.
- The Port of Bahía Blanca will see a 3.2% growth in volume to 14mn tonnes. Box handling at the port will also grow by 6.6% to 32,988TEUs.
- Argentina's foreign trade will grow 5.8% in real terms in 2012.
Key Industry Trends
Soaring Inflation Sees Argentine Truckers Go Against The Grain, Port Blockades Threaten Exports
Strikes continue to plague the Argentine port sector as the country's transport workers demand pay increases in the face of spiralling inflation rates. With President Cristina Fernández having won her recent re-election bid, we expect her administration to attempt to cool inflation over the medium-to-long term. In the short term, however, we expect that labour unrest will continue, potentially jeopardising exports during the country's main wheat exporting season.
Mercosur Countries Prevent Falklands Vessels From Entering Ports
The Mercosur group of South American countries have prevented Falkland Islands-registered vessels from entering their ports. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay agreed to take the united stand at a conference in the Uruguayan capital city Montevideo, in what is being seen as a show of support for Argentina's long-running sovereign claim to the UK Overseas Territory. UK Foreign Office Minister Jeremy Browne criticised the action and promised that the UK's ambassadors in the region would be raising the matter with the Mercosur countries as a matter of urgency. 2012 is the 30th anniversary of the Falklands War between Argentina and the UK.
Key Risks To Outlook
Key risks to our outlook are on the downside. We maintain our view that Argentina faces strong economic headwinds: soaring inflation, fiscal profligacy and growing government intervention mean the Argentine economy will struggle to sustain its current growth trajectory, as investors become increasingly cautious of the economy. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Argentina Shipping SWOT
Argentina Political SWOT
Argentina Economic SWOT
Argentina Business Environment SWOT
Global Shipping Overview
Replay Of 2009 Threatens As Carriers Face Twin Threats Of Declining Demand And Overcapacity
Overcapacity And Declining Demand To Collide, Asia-Europe Most Exposed
Liner Strategies Indicate Carriers Preparing For The Worst
What Is Wan Hai Lines Doing Right?
Asia-Europe Landbridge To Take Market Share, But Not Usurp Shipping
Container Shipping Must Meet Green Challenge Now
Dry Bulk Faces Bleak 2012, Chinese Slowdown Threatens Sector Already In Troubled Waters
Possibility Of Chinese Slowdown Presents Real Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping
One Vale Mega-Vessel Calls To China, Remains Unclear If Rest Will Follow
Dry Bulk Lines Suffering; Another Chinese Firm Withholds Charter Payments
Oversized Dry Bulk Fleet To Continue Growing
Liquid Bulk Survival Tactics Deployed In Force In 2012
2012 Outlook For Crude Oil Tankers Remains Poor
Frontline 2012 To Be Consolidating Force In Supertanker Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
Argentina Container Shipping Market Overview
Port Of Buenos Aires Throughput Overview
Port Of Bahía Blanca Throughput Overview
Table: Major Port Data, 2008-2016
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Argentina's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Argentina's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Evergreen Line
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)