- Language: English
- 64 Pages
- Published: December 2011
- Region: Colombia
Colombia Autos Report 2012
- ID: 2076544
- February 2012
- Region: Colombia
- 42 Pages
- Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International's Colombia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's automotive industry.
BMI remains highly optimistic about the growth potential of the Colombian autos industry, from the point of view of demand as well as production. New vehicle sales in Colombia are set to reach record figures in 2012, with estimated growth of 26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) for four-wheeled vehicles, reflecting the healthy consumer sector in the country. Colombia’s another big strength is the relatively small size of its autos market. The vehicle ownership rate is 43.2 cars per thousand people, meaning that Colombia offers a whole new consumer base with improved incomes levels and affordability. BMI accordingly forecasts Colombian autos sales to grow an average of 8.4% y-o-y between 2012 and 2016, helping the market reach annual sales of 480,480 units by the end of the forecast period.
The robust consumer demand story has also attracted leading industry players to increase autos production or assembly in Colombia. In our 2012 update, BMI has significantly revised its production projections, based on completely new data sets derived from the local trade association. Estimates from the National Business Association of Colombia (ANDI) show that Colombian four-wheeler production reached 128,265 units in 2010, which we expect to be followed by a more than 12% y-o-y growth in 2011. By the end of the forecast period, in 2016, we expect Colombian four-wheeler production to reach 213,826 units as carmakers improve capacity utilisation for exports and sales in the domestic market. We also see opportunities for investments from US and South Korean carmakers as they seek to exploit Colombia’s FTAs for an increased presence in the Latin American region as a whole.
In view of domestic growth potential and the fact that Colombia is seen as one of Latin America's more reliable targets for foreign investment, it is not surprising that a number of new entrants are looking to enter the market, which has historically been dominated by General Motors Company and Renault.
Chrysler has entered into a deal with SKBergé in Colombia in what BMI sees as a part of a broader strategy to strengthen its position in Latin America. China's Beiqi Foton Motor announced that it is to locate its light truck assembly base for Latin American markets in Colombia, as the carmaker increasingly eyes emerging markets across the continent. Companies are also being attracted by the favourable regulatory setup and government support of the autos industry. This came to light when Renault named these factors as key reasons behind its decision to make Colombia a key location for its export-oriented production strategy in Latin America.
All of these advantages place Colombia in sixth position in BMI’s risk/reward ratings for the autos industry in the Americas this year, with a score of 57.3 points, only slightly shy of the regional average but already ahead of Mexico. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Colombia Autos Industry SWOT
Colombia Political SWOT Analysis
Colombia Economic SWOT Analysis
Colombia Business Environment SWOT Analysis
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Business Environment Ratings
BMI Ratings Update: Slowdown Fears Hurt Regional Scores
Can Brazil Catch Up?
A Lonely Rising Star
Table: BMI Risk-Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In The Americas
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Colombia Autos Sector – Sales
Table: Colombia Autos Sector – Production
Table: Colombia Autos Sector – Trade
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Colombia – Economic Activity
Audi Latin America: Small, But Promising
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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