Lithuania Food and Drink Report 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 100
Business Monitor International's Lithuania Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Lithuania's food and drink industry.
Growing macroeconomic headwinds in Europe and the government's firm adherence to additional fiscal consolidation will see the Lithuanian economy come to a standstill in 2012, with our GDP growth forecast recently lowered from 1.8% to just 0.8%. All of those factors are reflected in our modest consumer outlook. The already precarious economic picture is further compounded by the latest scandal and collapse of Lithuania's fifth-largest lender, Snoras Bank. Although a change of government in 2012 could presage a period of looser fiscal policy, Lithuania's poor finances mean that any stimulus measures will be short-lived and thus have little positive impact on consumer sentiment, especially given elevated unemployment levels.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2011 per capita food consumption: +5.55%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016:+4.16%
- 2011 alcoholic drinks sales: +8.82%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016:+5.49%
- 2011 soft drinks sales: +7.09%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016:+4.24%
- 2011 mass grocery retail sales: +6.32%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016:+5.98%
Key Company Trends
Lidl Eyeing Lithuanian Entry in 2012 – German discounter Lidl is reportedly looking to launch its Lithuanian pilot store in Alytus in 2012. According to local media reports published in November 2011, by 2013 the firm is hoping to open outlets in the country's five biggest cities with populations of over 20,000. Lidl is clearly aiming to take advantage of the increased demand for economically priced goods, which has been supported by wider economic trends. However, the retailer will have to face strong competition posed by the few dominant domestic players led by Maxima.
Authorities to Ban Sales of ‘Strong Beer’ – According to local press, as of April 2012, sales of beer containing more than 7.5% alcohol will be banned in Lithuania. The decision seems to be in line with the programme to address alcohol consumption in the country, with the ban mostly to affect strong locally sold beer that is sold in plastic bottles. However, consumers of Belgian strong beer will also be impacted.
Key Risks to Outlook
Downside Risks on a Number of Fronts – Economic developments, currently weighted firmly to the downside, represent a key risk to our consumer outlook, with the country’s GDP expected to post marginal growth at best in 2012. We also believe that any event that would shake up the sustainability of the euro would prove devastating for Lithuania's balance of payments position, while the government's decision to maintain the lita’s peg to the euro means the electorate will be forced to accept a lower standard of living. Moreover, as an increasing number of Lithuanians leave the workforce, the taxable base will only shrink further, putting significant strain on an already stretched social security system and therefore on the country’s economic performance and consumer confidence levels.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Lithuania Food Industry SWOT
Lithuania Drink Industry SWOT
Lithuania Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Agricultural Commodity Prices
Table: Core Views Q411
CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q212
Lithuania’s Food and Drink Business Environment Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Lithuania – Economic Activity
Table: Lithuania - GDP By Expenditure, US$ Terms Breakdown
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food consumption indicators
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery – Production, Consumption and Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts
Processed Foods
Table: Processed Meat – Production, Consumption and Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Snack Food – Production, Consumption and Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Pasta – Production, Consumption and Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts
Dairy
Table: Dairy – Production, Consumption and Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drink indicators
Table: Alcoholic Drinks – Production, Consumption and Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drink indicators
Table: Soft Drinks – Production, Consumption and Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks – Production, Consumption and Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Retail indicators
Table D: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts
Trade
Sectoral trade indicators
Food
Key Industry Trends and Developments
Interests in the Baltics Marred by Modest Returns
Market Overview
Food Consumption
Table: Lithuania – Consumption of Main Foodstuffs Per Capita (kg)
Food Processing
Leading Food Producers
Confectionery
Trade
Agriculture
Table: Oils and Fats – Production, Consumption and Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Frozen Fruit and Vegetables – Production, Consumption and Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Key Industry Trends and Developments
Authorities to Ban Sales of ‘Strong Beer’
Foreign Players Remain Interested in Distribution Agreements
Multinationals Seeking Cheaper Production Locations
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Spirits
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends and Developments
Lidl Eyeing Lithuanian Entry in 2012
Maxima Feels the Pinch, but Looks Ahead
Rimi Closes Outlets in Lithuania
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table : Structure of Lithuania's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Number of Outlets
Table : Structure of Lithuania's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value by Format
Table : Lithuania - Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2011
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players in Lithuania's Food Sector
Table: Key Players in Lithuania's Drink Sector
Table: Key Players in Lithuania’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Company Analysis
Food
Paulig Baltic AS
Vilniaus Duona Plius
Kraft Lietuva
Drink
Kalnapilis-Tauro Grupe (KTG) (Royal Unibrew)
Stumbras
AB Alita
Agriculture
AB Rokiskio Suris
Mass Grocery Retail
Rimi Baltic AB
Maxima LT (Vilniaus Prekyba)
IKI Group
BMI Methodology
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sources
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
Paulig Baltic AS
Vilniaus Duona Plius
Kraft Lietuva
KalnapilisTauro Grupe (KTG) (Royal Unibrew)
Stumbras
AB Alita
AB Rokiskio Suris
Rimi Baltic AB
Maxima LT (Vilniaus Prekyba)
IKI Group
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