Bulgaria Defence and Security Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 68
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's defence and security industry.
The Government of Bulgaria remains focused on an armed forces modernisation initiative, which was launched to enhance compatibility with NATO, and to re-orientate these forces away from their former Cold War posture towards a structure enabling them to participate fully in Alliance out-of-area operations.
Bulgaria has provided a small, yet valuable, contribution to several NATO operations most recently these have included the provision of a frigate to support Alliance operations enforcing a maritime exclusion zone around Libya, during that country’s civil war. In addition to the Libya operation, Bulgaria has deployed forces in support of NATO missions in Afghanistan and the Balkans, and United Nations missions in Georgia.
At the political level, the modernisation of Bulgaria’s armed forces is progressing alongside a political effort to deepen the defence relationship between Bulgaria, the European Union and the United States. Although it caused some disquiet in Moscow, Sofia has been keen to show its enthusiasm for NATO and the United States’ bilateral development of a ballistic missile defence capability, offering to host radar and interceptor missiles on Bulgarian soil. Similarly, Bulgaria has extensively modernised its Air Defence Ground Environment command and control systems. These efforts have included the procurement of new radar, and the activation of an Air Sovereignty Operations Centre to safeguard Bulgarian air space.
Bulgaria has also suffered from challenges triggered by the global financial crisis, which could still have a downstream impact on procurement trends in the near future. That said, deliveries of tactical trucks are continuing to the Bulgarian Army. The force has also benefited from the purchase of new tactical radios, facilitating the development of a brigade-level battle management system. Nonetheless, plans to procure new medium-lift helicopters have experienced difficulties with the Bulgarian government choosing to reduce its original order of 18 aircraft to 15. This has not prevented the Bulgarian Navy from inducting new maritime support helicopters into its inventory.
Other procurements remain outstanding, the largest of which is the Bulgarian Air Force’s plans to purchase an initial batch of eight Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MRCAs). This procurement is required to replace obsolete fast jet types in the Air Force fleet. Candidate aircraft are likely to be offered by North American and European manufacturers although, as of early 2012, Bulgaria was proposing a four-way procurement with Croatia, Romania and Turkey, which all have existing requirements for new MRCAs. Whether such a procurement will take place remains to be seen. Moreover, there is also every chance that Bulgaria may choose to source its new MRCAs from second-hand stocks, rather than buy new aircraft outright in an effort to reduce costs. Budget costs are also expected to be reduced via a reduction in the personnel strength of the Bulgarian armed forces.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Security SWOT
Bulgaria Defence Industry SWOT
Bulgaria Political SWOT
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Landmark Political Events Looming In 2012
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Russia
China
Wild Cards To Watch
Europe Security Overview
Europe In A Global Context
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Eurozone Analysis
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Bulgaria’s Security Risk Ratings
Political Overview
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
External Security Situation
Bilateral And Multilateral Security Relations
Armed Forces And Government Expenditure
Armed Forces Modernisation 2010-2014
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Key Players In Bulgaria’s Defence Sector, 2010
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Bulgaria’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Bulgaria's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Government Expenditure
Table: Bulgaria's Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Bulgaria's Defence Expenditure – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Bulgaria – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Company Profiles
Arcus
Arsenal
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
- Arcus
- Arsenal
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